AFL Brownlow Medal Betting - Selwood surges into Brownlow contention

Gary Emmerson 19 Aug 2013
Joel Selwood of the Geelong Cats celebrates a goal

Gary Ablett has already been declared the winner of the 2013 Brownlow Medal by one bookmaker, but he is now drifting in the betting after Joel Selwood surged into contention for the award.

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After shortening to odds of $1.33 three weeks ago, sportsbet.com.au paid out over $270,000 early on Ablett to win his second Brownlow medal, with the champion appearing home. However, after three below par weeks he has drifted out to odds of $1.90, his longest odds since round 14.

Centrebet have pushed him out to an even bigger price, going $2.00 that Gold Coast playmaker Ablett adds to the Brownlow Medal he won in 2009 when with Geelong Cats.


Gary Ablett of the Suns

Although Ablett, a $10 chance at the start of the season, is still the clear favourite, his former Geelong team-mate Joel Selwood has produced some stunning end of season form which has seen his Brownlow medal odds smashed from a season high $41 in round 15 to $4.50 with Centrebet. 

Sportsbet had priced Selwood up at $51 in round 14 with one punter placing $600 on the Geelong midfielder at that stage of the season.

“The early payout on Gaz seemed like a sure bet at the time, but Joel Selwood has been on fire the last month. We still have Ablett as the favourite, but we would certainly be more relaxed around the office if he could find a bit of the ball this weekend!” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson. 

It isn’t the first time sportsbet.com.au has paid out early on the Brownlow medal, paying out over $300,000 early on Chris Judd to win in 2011 only the see Dane Swan win the medal on the night.

Centrebet make Ablett one vote clear in their unofficial calculations with Swan, who is the $7.00 third pick, three further away.

“Ablett looked unbeatable a few weeks ago but now we have Selwood just one vote behind him in our calculations,” Centrebet’s Michael Felgate said. “We think Selwood could have polled sixteen votes since round 15, its possible he could have five best on ground games in seven weeks. Over the same period we think Ablett will poll just four or five votes.   
“By our count, Ablett will be eleven votes clear of Selwood at round 15, and just one in front with two rounds to go."
 
Selwood’s Cats play Sydney and Brisbane while Ablett’s Suns play St.Kilda and GWS in the final two rounds of the season.

2013 BROWNLOW MEDAL
Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au
$1.90   Gary Ablett                (out from $1.57)                
$4.50   Joel Selwood               (in from $9.00)             
$7.00   Dane Swan                  (in from $9.00)                 
$21      Ryan Griffen                (steady)        
$21      Scott Pendlebury         (out from $14)        
$21      Kieran Jack                  (out from $16)      
$21      Daniel Hannebery       (out from $18)      
$23      Patrick Dangerfield     (in from $26)    
$26      Sam Mitchell               (steady)              
$26      Travis Boak                 (in from $41)              
$34      Jarryd Roughead         (out from $26)         
$34      Michael Barlow          (out from $21)  
Others quoted                  

2013 BROWNLOW MEDAL
Centrebet Market
$2.00      Gary Ablett
$4.50    Joel Selwood
$7.00       Dane Swan
$17     Scott Pendlebury, Kieran Jack, Michael Barlow
$21     Sam Mitchell
$26    Ryan Griffen
$31    Daniel Hannebery
$41+ Others

CENTREBET ESTIMATED BROWNLOW VOTES AFTER ROUND 21
27 - Gary Ablett
26 - Joel Selwood
23 - Dane Swan
22 - Scott Pendlebury
21 - Michael Barlow
20 - Kieran Jack, Sam Mitchell

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AFL Brownlow Medal Betting - Selwood surges into Brownlow contention

Gary Ablett has already been declared the winner of the 2013 Brownlow Medal by one bookmaker, but he is now drifting in the betting after Joel Selwood surged into contention for the award.

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