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Saturday Tips from the bookies March 25 - Ascot, Doomben, Mornington, Morphettville and Rosehill

  • Bookie tips for BMW Day

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing at Ascot, Doomben, Mornington, Morphettville and Rosehill by providing their best bets.

Tips from the Bookies March 25

Matt Cambell from CrownBet

THE BMW – HUMIDOR – Race 6 No. 6 (Sydney)
He might be really good. Wet track presents no dramas at all and now that Weir has broken his duck in Sydney, the huge potential that this bloke brings could open the floodgates.
BEST – THE GOLD TRAIL – Race 7 No. 3 (Mornington)
Brings international form lines a mile in front of many of these. Plenty to play for with a spot in the Caulfield Cup on the line and we’ve seen enough of Charlie Appleby already to know he means business here.

VALUE – ASSIGN – Race 3 No. 1 (Sydney)
Improved sharply at his second-up run last prep behind stable mate Almandin and won’t surprise if he does the same here. Done no harm by the SWP conditions and is a great bet at each-way odds.
LAY – PRIZED ICON – Race 5 No. 1 (Sydney)
Must be some doubt in the wet with his flop last start and punters haven’t been keen to back him to bounce back here. All the way out from $3.10 to $3.70 early.
BACKED – DIXIE BLOSSOMS – Race 8 No. 2 (Sydney)
Good winner two back on the heavy and not disgraced in G1 grade last start, she’s found plenty of admirers. Well backed at the $5.50 and now in to $5.

Christian Jantzen from Sportsbet

THE BMW – JAMEKA – Race 6 No. 8 (Sydney)
Jameka ran a huge race in the Australian Cup working hard on speed. At peak fitness now and will get a lovely run. The heavy track shouldn’t bother her too much and she is the one to beat in an open race.
BEST – DIXIE BLOSSOMS – Race 8 No. 2 (Sydney)
Forgiving last start when she was four wide no cover. Beautifully weighted here under set weights and penalties, handles the wet and will be suited by the wide draw. Looks her race.

VALUE – FORBIDDEN KISSES – Race 5 No. 6 (Brisbane)
Hard to miss her last run when she should have won but couldn’t get clear in the straight. Seems to have come back a better mare this time in and can win with even luck.
LAY –PRIZED ICON– Race 5 No. 1 (Sydney)
He failed badly on the heavy surface last Saturday and it’s hard to see him going much better on a similar heavy track this week. He seems very hard in the market for a horse with poor wet form. Happy to risk.
BACKED –SPIRITUAL GIRL– Race 1 No. 1 (Adelaide)
The undefeated Will Clarken filly has been backed off the map since markets opened. She followed up her debut win with a stylish trial and the punters don’t want anything else.

Will Norman from

THE BMW – OUR IVANHOWE – Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney)
Our Ivanhowe relished the heavy track in the Ranvet Stakes and he will get conditions to suit again. That was his best effort in Australia and he can improve over 2400 metres with that run under his belt.
BEST –THE GOLD TRAIL– Race 7 No. 3 (Mornington)
Charlie Appleby dominated these staying races in the Spring and The Gold Trail has a clear class edge here. Comparisons have been made to Caulfield Cup runner-up Scottish and he could win this on the bit.

VALUE – SECRET AGENDA – Race 6 No. 4 (Mornington)
Secret Agenda absolutely flies first-up and on her best form she has a clear class edge. Her recent jump was excellent and Dwayne Dunn will have plenty of options from the wide barrier draw. Great value.
LAY – ESHTIRAAK – Race 4 No. 1 (Mornington)
Eshtiraak is obviously a horse with talent, but he was poor last start in the VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes. He raced like a horse that may have had enough this prep. There are horses with upside in this field and I am happy to take him on.
BACKED – JUNGLE EDGE – Race 2 No. 4 (Sydney)
Carried 63kg on a slow track last time to suggest she hasn’t missed a beat since the Magic Millions. Can take up a positive position with her early speed. Clear $4.80 favourite on the exchange.

Gareth Phillips from Betstar

THE BMW – TAVAGO – Race 6 No. 7 (Sydney)
He spanked Jameka this time last year in the Derby and his win last start showed us he is back. He is the value runner as fourth pick in this tight market.
BEST – JON SNOW – Race 5 No. 2 (Sydney)
He isn't as good as Gingernuts but has twice beaten Group I performed Sacred Elixir. With Prized Icon a query on heavy ground, Jon Snow becomes the solid favourite in this lacklustre Group II

VALUE – PORNICHET – Race 4 No. 1 (Sydney)
Dan Morton couldn't get this bloke to fire last prep in Western Australia and now Ciaron Maher is having a go. His recent trial was strong and if he is anywhere near his Group I best he has to be a chance in this.
LAY – PRIZED ICON – Race 5 No. 1 (Sydney)
Class runner, pitched in on Benchmark ratings, but simply doesn't go anywhere near his best on heavy ground. With heavy (10) predicted he has to be risked.
BACKED – ASTRONOMOS – Race 3 No. 3 (Sydney)
With four wins from 5 starts on heavy tracks and a very impressive win last start it's no surprise he is the one punters want. 90 percent of our hold on the race so far is for him.

Thomas Hackett from

THE BMW – EXOSPHERIC – Race 6 No. 2 (Sydney)
Exsopheric should not be double the price of Jameka. He was excellent in the Australian Cup and the 2400 metres suits. The soft track isn’t an issue, Oliver is on and he is the value in an open race
BEST – ASTRONOMOS – Race 3 No. 3 (Sydney)
Astronomos is a clear favourite, but it would not surprise if he started odds-on. John Thompson has kept him fairly fresh for this and he gets another heavy track. He can blitz them again as he did last start.

VALUE –ARTISTRY– Race 2 No. 1 (Sydney)
She was excellent first-up in the Maurice McCarten Stakes, but she continues to be an underrated mare. She loves Rosehill Gardens, this is her best trip and she is outstanding value.
LAY –PRIZED ICON– Race 5 No. 1 (Sydney)
He didn’t go a yard on the heavy track last weekend and it will be a similar bog this weekend. Have to take him on and his presence in the market ensures punters get very juicy odds for Jon Snow
BACKED –OUR IVANHOWE– Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney)
He blitzed them in the Ranvet Stakes last weekend and punters are confident that he can record back-to-back wins. He is into $3.90 and I would be surprised if he doesn’t start the clear favourite.

Grant Palmer from PalmerBet

THE BMW – EXOSPHERIC – Race 6 No. 2 (Sydney)
Went super against the bias to just miss in the Australian Cup, he was placed in the Caulfield Cup and looks to peak here third-up. From gate one he will get the run of the race and should prove very hard to beat.
BEST – ASTRONOMOS – Race 3 No. 3 (Sydney)
Comes in off the back of a big last start victory. He thrives in heavy going, winning four from five and will get conditions to suit again. Strong record third-up, he looks the best bet on a hard card.

VALUE – LANCIATO – Race 4 No. 10 (Sydney)
Racing in terrific order, winning well last start. The step-up in trip will benefit him and he appears like he will get through the going. Big rise in class however he can measure up and represents value.
LAY – JUNGLE EDGE – Race 2 No. 4 (Sydney)
Nearly stole the Galaxy however he steps up considerably in weight here and we believe the run on the bottomless track will take the sprint out of his legs. We expect him drift considerably. Happy to risk.
BACKED – OUR IVANHOWE – Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney)
Superb effort last week when running away from the field for a big win in the Ranvet. Punters think he can replicate that run on the quick back-up and have supported him into outright favouritism.

Josh Rose from Luxbet

THE BMW – HUMIDOR – Race 6 No. 6 (Sydney)
Was an impressive winner in the Australian Cup and this race looks perfect for him. Thinking he will be even better suited going the Sydney direction and with the sweet run, he will make his presence felt.
BEST – DAYSEE DOOM – Race 8 No. 7 (Sydney)
Produced an enormous effort last start when setting a strong tempo and holding on well for fourth. She controls this race and with less tempo and the added fitness, she looks very hard to run down.

VALUE – MARENOSTRO – Race 4 No. 5 (Sydney)
Looks set for a first up assault here on the back of two solid trials. He goes well fresh, has produced his best run at this track and trip, and there is no issue with the heavy track. Plenty to like at each way odds.
LAY – ASTRONOMOS – Race 3 No. 3 (Sydney)
Impressive winner last start but did find the right race and the win may have been flattered as he found the fast lane. This looks a much more competitive field and we’re happy to take him on from the inside draw.
BACKED – JUNGLE EDGE – Race 2 No. 4 (Sydney)
Ran a mighty race last start at big odds but he hasn’t been missed by the punters here. Back from Group I company and thrives in the heavy conditions. He has been firming since markets opened

Adam Campton from Unibet

THE BMW – TAVAGO – Race 6 No. 7 (Sydney)
This boy couldn’t have been more impressive winning the Group 3 Sky High, we know the 2400M is no problem based on his Derby win over Jameka and is in great form, will give this an almighty shake
BEST – ASTRONOMOS – Race 3 No. 3 (Sydney)
Conditions are absolutely ideal for this 6-year-old gelding who has won four from five on heavy, couldn’t have been more impressive winning last start at Randwick and looks way too good for this lot.

VALUE –SMOOTH LANDING– Race 1 No.13 (Sydney)
This two-year-old filly from the John Thompson camp was specked on debut in the Sweet Embrace, made ground at the finish of the Magic Night and looks like the 1400m will suit, great value at double figures.
LAY –PRIZED ICON– Race 5 No. 1 (Sydney)
The Victoria Derby winner just didn’t handle the track in the Rosehill Guineas and looks set for a repeat here, can’t see it possibly winning this given the conditions, massive risk at its current quote.
BACKED – OUR IVANHOWE – Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney)
Punters expect this Lee & Anthony Freedman trained entire to repeat last week’s effort on the backup, getting similar conditions and has been well backed with us.

Adam Parsons from Bet365

THE BMW – HUMIDOR – Race 6 No. 6 (Sydney)
Humidor, has the right form after beating a savage on pace bias in The Australian Cup. Lasqueti Spirit should run them along and Humidor will love a strong run 2400m and should be too strong at the finish.
BEST –HANDFAST– Race 9 No. 1 (Sydney)
Handfast drops back in grade here from The National Sprint here. He is fourth up, at his pet distance, and James Doyle back riding, and he should get the perfect run from gate six. The $4.40 available is a steal.

VALUE –MURAAHIB– Race 1 No. 1 (Sydney)
First run since a massive effort in The Blue Diamond. He has been given four weeks to get over a tough run, the form has been franked and with D.Oliver in the saddle from gate three , even $6.50 is value.
LAY – OUR IVANHOWE – Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney)
A big win in The Ranvet Stakes, but hard to come into a horse at $4, second up straight up in distance to 2400m against some hard fit, proven 2400m horses.
BACKED – DAWN WALL – Race 7 No. 4 (Sydney)
As much as $6.50 was bet early and although only in to $5, that is still a significant move in a Group I feature and the money has continued to come for it.

Nick Heathcote from Betfair

THE BMW – TAVAGO – Race 6 No. 7 (Sydney)
Hard to split Tavago and Jameka. Both look ready to peak here at their pet distances. Tavago returned to form with a dominant win last start setting a career PB. On a heavy surface I’m happy to lean his way.
BEST – NEW TIPPERARY – Race 4 No. 6 (Sydney)
Worked in the run when beaten narrowly in the Ajax Stakes second up. Stays down in the weights and will have come on in the past fortnight. Wet ground is no issue and maps to get a soft run. Ideal set up!

VALUE – HARLOW GOLD – Race 7 No. 3 (Sydney)
Impossible to fault her this preparation, she finished strongly in the Australian Guineas against the boys. 2000m and back to fillies grade she looks a great bet. Breeding suggests she’ll handle the heavy track.
LAY – IMPENDING – Race 2 No. 3 (Sydney)
He is three weeks between runs, but I’m still concerned with a drop back in trip and onto an unsuitable heavy surface. His figures are well below others this time in and he looks more suited to 1400 or 1600m.
BACKED – OUR IVANHOWE – Race 6 No. 1 (Sydney) 
Impressive winner of the Ranvet Stakes first up and exchange punters are confident he can win on the back-up. Firming from $4.90 into $4.30 with the in-form Ben Melham jumping back on board.

Johnny Aitkin from William Hill

THE BMW – HUMIDOR – Race 6 No. 6 (Sydney)
He has improved every start this campaign and the step up to 2400m should pose no problems. He has won on the heavy ground so the ground won’t affect him. The horse to beat.
BEST – DANISH TWIST – Race 2 No. 2 (Sydney)
Excellent and somewhat unlucky last start in the Coolmore Classic. Drops back from 1500m to the 1200m but that shouldn’t be a problem, she’s twice placed at the trip including a second behind Takedown.

VALUE – BE LIKE DAD – Race 9 No. 11 (Sydney)
Excellent when winning first-up on a heavy track. Drops 5.5kg and with a lightweight he looks a top chance at $13. He hasn’t missed a placing in his last six runs and this doesn’t look changing here.
LAY – FOXPLAY – Race 7 No. 2 (Sydney)
First start at a distance longer than the mile in a Group I doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence. At the current quote she looks well under the odds. Happy to risk.
BACKED – JUNGLE EDGE – Race 2 No. 4 (Sydney)
We put up $11 about this gelding and he was quickly trimmed into $5. Punters seem confident this bloke can pinch a big enough lead out in front to not be caught.


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Saturday Tips from the bookies March 25 - Ascot, Doomben, Mornington, Morphettville and Rosehill

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing at Ascot, Doomben, Mornington, Morphettville and Rosehill by providing their best bets.

Read more »

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