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Saturday Tips from the bookies October 28 - tips for Australian racing

  • See who the bookies are tipping on this weekend.

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing at tips for Ascot, Doomben, Gold Coast, Kembla Grange, Moonee Valley, Morphettville, Randwick and Toowoomba by providing their best bets.

Bookie Tips - October 28

Check  back each Friday afternoon to see Saturday's updated Bookie Tips.

Previous tips from the bookies:

October 21

Christian Jantzen from Sportsbet

Ticks all the boxes in a weak Caulfield Cup. Ran amazing sectionals last start, gets the jockey change and will go forward from the good draw. Can’t see how he gets beaten.
BEST – NIETA – Race 10 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Gets in so well at the set weights and Hugh Bowman jumps on. Didn’t have much luck last start behind In Her Time and then placed behind Redzel her other runs this prep. Will be winning.
VALUE – SWORN EVIDENCE – Race 1 No. 10 (Melbourne)
Sworn Evidence was just going around for the run last start at Ararat. Will improve of that and Craig Williams jumps on. Will be closer in the run and has a strong finish.
LAY – ONE MORE HONEY – Race 3 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Cops the weight penalty and she doesn’t deserve it on her current form. Looks a few nice improvers here and she just looks far too short at the current quote.
BACKED – HARLEM – Race 8 No. 15 (Melbourne)
Has been $11 into $9 since the barrier draw and I can see him starting shorter. He was impressive two starts back and will get a great run from the gate.

Will Norman from

He recorded excellent figures two starts back at Caulfield when winning the Naturalism impressively. Drawn perfectly to get a nice soft run near pace and with no weight can go close.
BEST – KAONIC – Race 2 No. 6 (Sydney)
Loved the way he knuckled down last start to win at Canterbury and record excellent closing sectionals. Steps up in grade here but with good speed on paper should get his chance late.
VALUE – YOU KNOW THE ONE – Race 1 No. 1 (Brisbane)
Railed throughout to score well on debut. Draws to get a similar run here and with none of the first starters overly impressing at the trials. He looks a good each-way bet.
LAY – DANISH TWIST – Race 6 No. 11 (Melbourne)
It’s been 13 starts since her last win and she’s only placed twice in those. She’ll concede a start once again to her main market rivals and looks under the odds.
BACKED – REKINDLED FORCE – Race 3 No. 14 (Sydney)
This $320,000 yearling purchase made an impressive debut scoring at Muswellbrook and punters think he can win again, backing him strongly from $3.90 into $2.70.

Gareth Phillips from Betstar

Had a slight setback last start but we have to trust her astute trainer that he wouldn't be lining up here unless she was fully fit. Her form prior to that was faultless winning 6 in a row including three Group Is.
BEST – DIDDUMS – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
Ran very good time to win a strong midweek when resuming. With the Ron Quinton pair dropping back from a mile I think Diddums can pinch a winning break on the turn.
VALUE – ALBUMIN – Race 6 No. 4 (Sydney)
He is screaming out for a race with some speed in it which he hopefully gets here. His last two runs have been crackers, running on against the tempo in best sections of the day.
LAY – TORGERSEN – Race 9 No. 9 (Brisbane)
We expect there will be plenty of punters in his corner. However, $2.30 about a horse likely to midfield or worse on the inside on a heavy track day is not something we are interested in at the short odds.
BACKED – NIETA – Race 10 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Punters have noticed her two recent placings behind Everest winner Redzel. Early odds of $2.60 were quickly snapped up and we are still laying her at $2.25.

Thomas Hackett from

Ventura Storm has had an ideal Caulfield Cup preparation and his best form in Europe was over 24000 metres. He maps to get a dream run in transit with the Caulfield Cup master Damien Oliver in the saddle.
BEST – BEAU GESTE – Race 2 No. 2 (Melbourne)
Beau Geste has been sent to Melbourne after finishing third behind the talented Viridine in the Roman Consul Stakes and that looks like excellent form for this race. He will be very tough to beat.
VALUE – GLOBAL GLAMOUR - Race 9 No. 2 (Melbourne)
She has been something of a forgotten horse, but she is tough as they come and she rarely runs a bad race. She will take up the running and give them something to chase in an open Tristarc Stakes.
LAY – SAMOVARE – Race 5 No. 8 (Melbourne)
I can’t get her anywhere near this short in a race with plenty of winning chances. She has been up for a while and she was flat in the Underwood Stakes.
BACKED – JOHANNES VERMEER – Race 8 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Nobody missed his run in the Caulfield Stakes and he has been the one that punters want in the Caulfield Cup. He has been $6 into $4.80 and is set to start the race as a clear favourite.

Grant Palmer from PalmerBet

Terrific run in the Caulfield Stakes where he stormed home in the quickest final 600m, 400m and 200m of the race. Looks to get in well at the weights and I like that they plan on riding more positive.
BEST – KAONIC – Race 2 No. 6 (Sydney)
Impressive at both starts, looks like he will eat up the mile whilst there has to be a question mark over a few of his fancied rivals. Expect him to win well and then head south for the Carbine Club on Derby Day.
VALUE – GLOBAL GLAMOUR – Race 9 No. 2 (Melbourne)
She looks the forgotten runner of the day. She’s a dual Group I winner, flies first-up, has won at the track and looked very strong in both trials. At the double figures she looks a terrific bet.
LAY – PUMPKIN PIE – Race 5 No. 10 (Sydney)
Has been well supported after her horror show in the Highway race last Saturday however this looks a far harder race and with the rain about she now looks rock-bottom odds.
BACKED – JOHANNES VERMEER – Race 8 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Fair to say no one missed his run last Saturday in the Caulfield stakes when flashing home behind Gailo Chop. It’s been a one-way go for him all week and that only intensified once he drew a good gate.

Josh Rose from Luxbet

Think she is going as well as ever and everything points to her running a huge race here. She looks suited back to handicap conditions with 53kg on her back and any rain around is a bonus. Don't leave her out.
BEST – TANGLED – Race 4 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Has improved with each run this preparation and looks ideally placed to return to the winners stall here. He brings superior formlines into this and maps beautifully from barrier five. Clearly looks the one to beat.
VALUE – ULMANN – Race 6 No. 5 (Melbourne)
Honest galloper which strips fitter for his honest effort first-up and looks much better suited here with the drop in grade and steps up to 1400m. He gets a lovely run from the draw and has the turn of foot to close off strongly. A live chance at good odds.
LAY – OUR CROWN MISTRESS – Race 1 No. 6 (Melbourne)
Has won her last two starts in impressive fashion and will again give herself every chance here, but finds herself in a real race here against some promising types that look set to run well. Looks gross unders.
BACKED – NIETA – Race 10 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Class runner of the field that looks extremely well placed back in this company, and the punters think she has the superior form in this event. Has been $2.40 into $2.25.

Wayne Symons from Unibet

This UK import was terrific at his Australian debut a week ago in the Caulfield Stakes when second to Gailo Chop. The punters agree and have stepped in to back him into favouritism.
BEST – TEODORA – Race 3 No. 12 (Melbourne)
Darren Weir puts the polish on this unbeaten filly which was very impressive winning her last start at Bendigo. She has plenty of upside and should handle this class rise and win.
VALUE – WHITE MOSS – Race 7 No. 11 (Sydney)
This Jason Coyle trained mare is a beauty. She’s won four of her last five starts and she looks ready to step up to Saturday grade. She sits outside and can’t miss each way around the $7 mark.
LAY – KAONIC – Race 2 No. 6 (Sydney)
This lightly raced colt from the Waller yard ran down a tearaway leader at the mid-weeks last start, that horse has subsequently failed again. He is way under the odds in this much stronger race.
BACKED – ALSHAHHAD – Race 1 No. 1 (Sydney)
The Lindsay Park stable have chosen Randwick for this colt to make his debut and punters expect a forward showing - he has been well supported from $11 into $6.

Adam Parsons from Bet365

It was impossible to miss his last start, first-up effort flashing home late into second. Winning here in similar fashion will have him fighting for favouritism for the Melbourne Cup. Hard to beat.
BEST – ALWARD – Race 4 No. 4 (Sydney)
Although he only beat a three horse field last start, there’s not much to overcome here. The jump to 2400m doesn’t look an issue and he may end up accounting for these easily.
VALUE – CRAFTY COP – Race 9 No. 10 (Sydney)
He’ll look to improve here second-up after a satisfactory run last start. Any rain would be welcome for him and with that highly likely he’s a knockout chance here.
LAY – KAONIC – Race 2 No. 6 (Sydney)
He got a rails run towards the back of the field in a high tempo race last start and had every right to come over the top of the leader as he did. Not sure about the quality of that field either. Prefer others.
BACKED – DIDDUMS – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
She returned to racing with a comfortable all the way win at Rosehill last start and having only missed a place in two of her nice, punters think she’ll be tough to beat again here. She’s been $5 in to $3.80.

Nick Heathcote from Betfair

Lightly raced mare that’s only query is a disputed lameness between trainer and vet. Hit the line last week looking at this week’s race. Was pegged as $5 favourite last week so I’m more than happy to take $9.
BEST – FUHRYK – Race 10 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Class mare off a freshen and has had genuine excuses at both starts this time in. Looks the best each-way bet of the day against a favourite that has been running in stronger company that looks under the odds.
VALUE – MORTAR PLATOON – Race 8 No. 5 (Sydney)
Waller import in its second preparation and liked the way it finished off fresh behind the in-form Mapmaker. Gets a nice weight drop and claim here but needs it, kept fresh and any rain will help his chances.
LAY – ZENALICIOUS – Race 8 No. 1 (Sydney)
Maps close to last with 60kg in a deep race with almost 10 winning chances. Looks ready to peak but also worried horses like Mapmaker and Gaugin could put the breaks on mid-race which won’t suit.
BACKED – JOHANNES VERMEER – Race 8 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Impossible to miss his run in the Caulfield Stakes to just miss Gailo Chop. Always a query repeating that rating a week later. Well found at $5.40 into $5 on the exchange and will run clear favourite.

Johnny Aitken from William Hill

Jon Snow was dominant when winning back-to-back group races last prep in Sydney and with four runs under his belt going into this, he should be fit and ready to win. He’ll give them something to run down.
BEST – KAONIC – Race 2 No. 6 (Sydney)
Kaonic was dominant last start when stepped up to the mile and he finds himself a very winnable race here. If he’s taken any improvement off his impressive last start win he’ll take beating.
VALUE – ISORICH – Race 9 No. 1 (Sydney)
For a horse that’s won his last two starts over this course and distance he is way over the odds. This bloke should be single figures as he consistently puts himself on the speed and is always in the finish.
LAY – TANGLED – Race 4 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Tangled was gallant in defeat last start in the Group I Spring Champion and whilst this form reference reads very well for this, he does meet some promising up and comers. He’s too short in this field.
BACKED – DIDDUMS – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
Diddums was immediately supported when we first went up and this support continued all week. Final field saw him open at $5 which was immediately wound in to $3.90.

Matt Campbell from CrownBet

Just with the niggling doubt about Bonneval, Johannes Vermeer really becomes the default horse here. Charged to the line in the Caulfield Stakes in quick time and has been a proven winner on the quick back.
BEST – OUR CROWN MISTRESS – Race 1. No. 6 (Melbourne)
Bold front runner that has been progressing nicely. Up in grade but her win at Geelong was very impressive and the weight drop will be to her advantage. The one they have to run down.
VALUE – INFERENCE – Race 8 No. 9 (Melbourne)
The trip still a slight query although think he is much stronger this time in. Caught the eye last two runs finishing off in both the Underwood and the Caulfield Stakes. Also gets some nice weight relief here.
LAY – BEAU GESTE – Race 2 No. 2 (Melbourne)
Looks to have talent and 1400m suits but first time left handed and stable isn’t flying with runners the Melbourne way of going. In an open race I’m happy to oppose him at the price.
BACKED – JOHANNES VERMEER – Race 8 No. 3 (Melbourne)
With the vet inspections on Bonneval punters keep backing Johannes Vermeer to back up and claim the feature handicap. Was $5.50 before barrier draw and continues to shorten. 


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Saturday Tips from the bookies October 28 - tips for Australian racing

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing from around the country.

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