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Saturday Tips from the bookies April 29 - tips for Ascot, Caulfield, Doomben, Morphettville and Randwick

  • See who the bookies are tipping on Saturday.

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing at tips for Ascot, Caulfield, Doomben, Oakbank and Randwick by providing their best bets.

Tips from the bookies - April 29

Visit back on Friday 28 April for Saturday's tips from the bookmakers.

Christian Jantzen from Sportsbet

Big Duke looks primed to win this. Well-seasoned for 3200m after two wins at 2400m and 2600m. He’s beaten the handicapper getting in on 52kg and has the right lead up form. Very hard to beat.
BEST – DELANEY – Race 3 No. 7 (Perth)
Very promising horse that returned with a super second after being wide all the way behind a smart one. Up in distance is ideal now and will be getting home hard.

VALUE – MOTOWN LIL – Race 8 No. 11 (Adelaide)
Has always shown promise and looks primed to take out the Redelva Stakes Impressive winner of her previous two and should get a lovely run just off the speed. Look for her finishing right over the top of them.
LAY – MONTAUK – Race 6 No. 2 (Sydney)
Resumes off a break and looks poorly placed at the weights. He will be conceding weight to a few horses that are on the up and don’t think he will be well suited on a wet track getting back in a slowly run race. Lay.
BACKED – RICHARD OF YORKE – Race 4 No. 8 (Sydney)
Richard Of Yorke was a winner over this trip two runs back and has been well backed since markets opened. Punters think he can bounce back despite being beaten 3-1/2 lengths last start.

Matt Cambell from CrownBet

The horse to beat on a three-run winning streak. Rock hard fit and out of the right camp. Big race jockey Glen Boss rides for the suspended Craig Williams and looks to be a major player at the weights.
BEST – BURNING FRONT – Race 3 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Recent form has been impressive, drops in grade and loves the track and distance. He looks too handy for these and has had support in the early market. He should be an anchor for any multi or exotic play.

VALUE – DEMONSTRATE – Race 8 No. 2 (Melbourne)
Demonstrate showed promise last prep and is a winner three times over the 1200m. He’s third-up and has won third-up previously. He has the potential to improve sharply and at the current quote looks value.
LAY – TOFFEE NOSE – Race 4 No. 11 (Melbourne)
Although Toffee Nose has been model of consistency, placing all four runs this this preparation, this is a much tougher task. Her only win came in a Pakenham maiden and she looks under the odds in this.
BACKED – GRAND DREAMER – Race 6 No. 9 (Sydney)
Grand Dreamer was a dual acceptor in both Sydney and Melbourne and has had solid support in early betting. She trialled well twice in preparation for this and she handles the wet if she heads to Sydney. 

Will Norman from

Can't find any reason to any knock him. Looks a promising stayer in what looks a moderate Sydney Cup. He has been very good in both Sydney runs and looks like he will relish the two miles.
BEST – SWORD OF LIGHT – Race 9 No. 12 (Melbourne)
Racing extremely well at the moment where she has raced on strong speeds her last two runs. She is very well in under the conditions of the race and will take plenty of catching.

VALUE – PRUSSIAN VIXEN – Race 8 No. 11 (Melbourne)
Mare in great form this preparation. Held off Silent Sedition two starts ago before nearly making all in a fast run Hareeba Stakes. Can lead and give a great sight.
LAY – NIETA – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
No knock on her ability but returns against a competitive field after raising her benchmark rating eight points at her last run. Would need to see her perform this preparation before wanting to take short odds.
BACKED – GRAND DREAMER – Race 6 No. 9 (Sydney)
Landed a very good betting plunge second-up last prep over 1600m on a soft track and punters believe he can do it again backing him strongly from six into four.

Gareth Phillips from Betstar

Coming off a strong win in the Mornington Cup over 2400 metres. Will get a cheap run from barrier one and has the right jockey to produce him at the right time to show us his staying ability at first go at the trip.
BEST – I THOUGHT SO – Race 2 No. 3 (Sydney)
Very promising colt with some great formlines from his recent runs. A recent barrier trial showed his manners have improved after they cost him the race last start. Expect him to bounce back hard here. 

VALUE – MR MCBAT – Race 9 No. 11 (Sydney)
Big step up in grade but there are no stars here and he has been a luckless galloper. He’s a last start winner with Damian Lane booked to ride. Can surprise at cricket score odds
LAY – BIG DUKE – Race 8 No.6 (Sydney)
There’s a lot to like about this Darren Weir-trained galloper but we would rather oppose him as a relatively short priced favourite in a race full of intrigue. How good are Charlie Appleby’s imports?
BACKED – RICHARD OF YORKE – Race 4 No. 8 (Sydney)
In great form down south winning by six lengths over the distance two runs back and punters are keen to support him racing in the other direction, $2.90 into $2.45.

Thomas Hackett from

Lasqueti Spirit ensures that this will be a genuine staying test and Penglai Pavilion can stay all day. He will improve from his run in the first edition of this race and will have every chance with Kerrin McEvoy.
BEST – I THOUGHT SO – Race 2 No. 3 (Sydney)
He threw away the Gosford Guineas but he has an excellent chance to return to winning form. This is no tougher than what he all but beat last start and I loved his barrier trial between runs.

VALUE – REPLIQUE – Race 10 No. 1 (Sydney)
Replique is a much better horse than her form in Australia suggests. She has now had the chance to acclimatize and if she finds her best form will be very competitive in what is an open race.
LAY – SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Race 9 No. 4 (Sydney)
Racing well and arguably unlucky last start but there is a lot of depth and mystery in this race and we would rather oppose him at his current quote of $3.
BACKED – NIETA – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
Nieta opened at a fairly skinny quote, but that has not stopped punters coming for the talented mare. She is into $2.15 to make a winning return to the races and it would not surprise to see her start odds-on.

Grant Palmer from PalmerBet

Lasqueti Spirit will ensure this is a genuine staying affair which should play into the hands of the Charlie Appleby duo. Penglai Pavilion will stay all day and comes in with strong European form.
BEST – NIETA – Race 7 No. 6 (Sydney)
Nieta looked a Group horse in the making last preparation and going off her two trials leading in she has only improved. Unbeaten first-up and won three from four at the distance, she looks the bet on the card.

VALUE – MULL OVER – Race 3 No. 9 (Sydney)
Back to the mile here off a complete forgive run where she was caught wide throughout on a rails bias track. At her best she is more than capable of winning this.
LAY – SUPPLY AND DEMAND– Race 9 No.4 (Sydney)
Looks short enough for a horse that has been mixing its form of late. Got all the favours in front when winning at Wyong however he won’t be afforded the same in this field. In a deep race we are happy to risk.
BACKED – BURNING FRONT – Race 3 No. 1 (Melbourne)
Won four of his past five starts and back to set weights, punters have signalled him out as the weekend anchor and backed him from $1.90 into $1.60.

Josh Rose from Luxbet

Absolutely flying, winning five of his last six, and is adept in all conditions. The only question mark is the trip but all indications suggest it won’t be an issue and he’ll get a soft run from barrier two.
BEST – SIZZLING BULLET – Race 3 No. 1 (Sydney)
Forgive his last start when well beaten in Group I company and expect sharp improvement back in grade. In a race lacking speed, he can take control here for in-form hoop Blake Shinn. The one to beat.

VALUE – HIGHLY GEARED – Race 7 No. 8 (Sydney)
Fast mare that impressed in a strong race fresh. She has measured up in town previously and will give these something to chase. Looks primed to run well and looks big odds in this competitive affair.
LAY – PAY UP BRO – Race 2 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Racing well this preparation but faces a competitive field here we have big doubts on his ability to run the 1600 metres out. Looks well under the odds in this and were happy to take him on.
BACKED – GRAND DREAMER – Race 6 No. 9 (Sydney)
Melbourne raider that produced a strong run fresh and his second-up form is terrific. He gets conditions to suit and the trip looks ideal. Was heavily backed early and is now a dominant $3 favourite.

Adam Campton from Unibet

I’m sticking with the first horse past the post in the abandoned Sydney Cup. Charlie Appleby’s horses improve with their second run and I can see him getting a great run just off the speed, which looks genuine.
BEST – MY PSYCHIATRIST – Race 6 No. 8 (Sydney)
This mare ran a cracker when resuming on a surface she is not fond of. Suited by the step up in trip, gets blinkers back on and a dryer surface. She’ll be very hard to beat.

VALUE – MULL OVER – Race 3 No. 9 (Sydney)
Conditions didn’t suit in the Adrian Knox last start and her run should be forgotten. She was impressive winning her maiden at Newcastle and looks suited here on a firmer surface. Great double figure value.
LAY – FRENCH EMOTION – Race 6 No. 1 (Melbourne)
This Chris Waller-trained mare isn’t the most genuine conveyance. Her last two runs have been good but there is plenty of depth in this race. I must oppose her at her current price at around the $2.80 mark.
BACKED – SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Race 9 No. 4 (Sydney)
Punters expect this Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott runner to continue on his winning way. He has been well supported into $3 after as much as $3.90 was given.

Adam Parsons from Bet365

He comes into this with a fitness edge after a seven-day back-up following a good all the way win at Caulfield. He can stay all day so distance won’t worry him and he’s a great chance at big odds.
BEST – RICHARD OF YORKE – Race 4 No. 8 (Sydney)
Beaten by a smart one in Hans Holbein last start with a massive margin to third and he’s found a race here without much depth to it. There’s every chance he wins this well.

VALUE – SIR BACCHUS – Race 7 No. 1 (Sydney)
He’s three from five on the slow and two from four first-up. He’s competed well in plenty harder than this and if he’s near his best he’ll be very hard to beat here.
LAY – MONTAUK – Race 6 No. 2 (Sydney)
First time back to the 1600 metres in 12 starts and he’s definitely suited over further. Much prefer to be backing around him when he’s one from five at the distance.
BACKED – SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Race 9 No. 4 (Sydney)
Making the jump from midweek racing but punters don’t think that will be an issue following a comfortable win at Warwick Farm last start. He’s been backed in from $4.80 to $3.20.

Nick Heathcote from Betfair

The Charlie Appleby pair should fight this out. Penglai Pavilion was third in the Sydney Cup no race but I think the addition of winkers is a positive.
BEST – ONLY CHOICE – Race 5 No. 7 (Sydney)
Only having his third start but I loved his first two starts. Importantly gets a heavy surface and has drawn perfectly in barrier five for Brenton Avdulla. Has the most upside in a pretty average highway race.

VALUE – ROCKSTAR REBEL – Race 4 No. 10 (Melbourne)
Returned to form nicely in strong overall time at 1800 metres third-up, beaten just over two lengths. I’m confident he’ll overhaul them and announce himself as the short priced South Australian Derby favourite.
LAY – DEBONAIRLY – Race 1 No. 4 (Sydney)
Is the leader in a small field and stable are running hot. That said I can’t get it anywhere near odds on against a few boys here that have trialled or raced well lately. Synthetic hoof filler doesn’t inspire either.
BACKED – BIG DUKE – Race 8 No. 6 (Sydney)
Steady on the exchange at $3.90 and will jump a clear favourite. Glen Boss rides stayers well and barrier two should aid his chances with a luxury run throughout. Obvious but looks hard to beat.

Johnny Aitkin from William Hill

Godolphin runner who has been competitive over the sticks and the flat in the UK. Prior to coming out here he won a 3600m race at Newmarket and if runs up to that level he’ll take beating in this.
BEST – FAATINAH – Race 7 No. 2 (Melbourne)
Group 1 placed two starts back in the Oakleigh Plate and if he runs up to that form he’ll take beating. Drawn in barrier 3, so expect him to go straight to the front as he did that day giving them something to chase

VALUE – PRUSSIAN VIXEN – Race 8 No. 11 (Melbourne)
Excellent this campaign including a win in the Bellmaine Stakes. Only run down late by Bassett last start and prior to that she beat home Silent Sedition. She’s an excellent each-way bet.
LAY – BAYANOVA – Race 1 No. 3 (Melbourne)
Meets a few that beat her at Oakbank and at the short quote just doesn’t appeal getting out to 4000m. Spur On Gold looked to be going better in the final stages and looks far better suited than the favourite.
BACKED – FRENCH EMOTION – Race 6 No. 1 (Melbourne)
We put up $4.40 about this girl and she’s been supported into $2.90 for Chris Waller and Jockey Ben Melham. Two starts back she placed behind I Am A Star and punters think that’s the right form for this.


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Saturday Tips from the bookies April 29 - tips for Ascot, Caulfield, Doomben, Morphettville and Randwick

Australia’s leading bookmakers give their thoughts on this Saturday’s racing at tips for Ascot, Caulfield, Doomben, Morphettville and Randwick by providing their best bets.

Read more »

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