Australian Guineas Tips - $26 chance will charge at them late

  • Main Stage races best at Flemington.
  • Sectionals last start were clearly best.
  • Confidence rating: 75%
Michael Walker riding Main Stage defeats John Allen riding Cliffs Edge

What a cracking renewal of the Australian Guineas (1600m) we are set to witness at Flemington on Saturday.

We find a full field of 16 that consists of three Group 1 winners and multiple Group 2 and 3 winners.

In such an open field, one thing strikes me as odd – and that’s the fact Cliff’s Edge is the $4.60 favourite as he jumps from an outside gate. 

He’s an outstanding racehorse and ran out of his skin last campaign when taking on the big boys in the Emirates Stakes (2000m), but he has some detractors here. 

Yes, he was caught wide without cover last start and meets the winner, Grunt, better at the weights after being outgunned late.

But beside barrier 16 being an obvious obstacle, he has raced at Flemington our four occasions and has only recorded two placings. 

His worst run last campaign was his third-up run where he finished 4.5 lengths from Royal Symphony in the Exford Plate (1400m), and that has to be a slight concern when he heads into Saturday’s assignment at his third run.

He’s going to have to work early from the wide gate, and that may be enough to soften him up when the challengers come in the straight. 

Grunt has also drawn wide but is unlikely to go forward, so he’s going to need plenty of luck to get in with cover and not get caught too deep. 

I love the form around Aloisia too, and she did catch the eye first-up when clocking the best closing sectionals in The Vanity (1400m), but the boys went a bit quicker in the CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) on the same day and their late sectionals were far better. 

Aloisia ran her last three 200m splits in 10.74, 11.05 and 11.65 in a total time of 1:22.040.

The CS Hayes was run in 1:21.550 (approximately 3 lengths quicker), and the horse that produced the quickest closing sectionals was Main Stage as he came home in 10.79, 10.74 and 11.46.

He also hit a higher peak speed (68.5kmph) than any other runner, although, Cliff’s Edge did hit his peak (67.6kmph) at the 1100m mark and that would have taken a bit out of him when he hit the straight. 

He was also held up momentarily at the 300m mark and that probably cost him half a length. 

Main Stage has run his best races at Flemington and he did defeat Cliff’s Edge in the UCI Stakes (1800m) so there is no reason he should be at $26 when Cliff’s Edge is at $4.60 – the difference is just too great. 

Some may be concerned with Main Stage being second-up and possibly racing a bit flat, but he ran on a Heavy 9 when first-up last campaign and then won second-up, so if he was going to suffer ‘second-up syndrome’ that would have been the time he’d race flat.

Trainers Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young do a fantastic job with their stayers, and this is a horse that has only missed the placings twice when 5th in the Victoria Derby and then first-up this time. 

He doesn’t have to go back to last from barrier 5, and if jockey Regan Bayliss can get him into a good rhythm and then find a clear passage home, he’ll be charging at them late. 

With Cliff’s Edge making this a truly run Guineas, there should be enough pace on for the swoopers, and I think Main Stage is the best of those. 

*State exclusions apply to some offers. NSW Residents are excluded from welcome bonuses. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.



*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

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Australian Guineas Tips - $26 chance will charge at them late

What a cracking renewal of the Australian Guineas (1600m) we are set to witness at Flemington on Saturday.

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