Doomben Cup Tips - $21 chance is absolutely flying

  • Eye catching run in the Hollindale Stakes.
  • Extra 200m the only query.

I think the traders have made a fair assessment of most horses in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m), but I’m pretty sure they’ve got it wrong with at least one runner.


The Mick Price-trained Oregon’s Day is the $4.50 equal favourite – an honest price for a most-consistent mare that won the Hollindale Stakes (1800m) impressively last start and has drawn well in barrier 2. 

The Hollindale is the most reliable lead-up race to the Doomben Cup, and she maps to get a soft run behind the speed and will prove hard to beat. 

Anthony Freedman’s Ambitious is the other joint favourite, and while his Group 1 form in the Australian Cup (2000m) and Tancred Stakes (2400m) is good enough to win this, his disappointing effort in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) is a concern. 

Satono Rasen is next in line at $6, and the traders obviously didn’t miss his unlucky run in the Hollindale where he didn’t have the clearest of runs in the straight – he’s open to improvement third-up and is a genuine contender. 

Tom Melbourne ($9.50) battled gamely for 2nd place, while Egg Tart had her chance to get past him and looks under the odds at $10.

Comin’ Through did it tough out wide and is a fair price at $9.50, but he’s drawn the outside gate (13) and may need some luck again. 

It’s Somewhat had to work early but was slightly disappointing, and his price reflects that at $17.

Violate ($81) and One Foot In Heaven ($41) did nothing in the Hollindale and it’s hard to see them threatening, but for the life of me, I can’t figure out why Man Of His Work has gone up as a $21 chance.

Trained by Bruce Hill, the five-year-old son of Lope de Vega, may not be bred to excel over 2000m, but his 3rd placing in the Hollindale was a cracker. 

He was snagged back from barrier 10 and settled around midfield, one off the fence.

He was a length and a half behind It’s Somewhat at the 300m mark and had to ease wider to find clear running at the 200m mark which is where he started to let rip and quickly put five lengths on It’s Somewhat.

Man Of His Word was still a length from Satono Rasen and Comin’ Through at the 100m mark and beat both of those gallopers home.

His last three runs at Doomben have been full of merit having finished 3rd to Religify in the GH Mumm Open Quality (1615m) when he overraced, followed by a 2nd placing behind Urban Knight over 1600m, and then finishing a length from With A Promise in the Tails Stakes (1600m) two starts ago on an unsuitable Heavy track. 

Having drawn barrier 1 on Saturday, jockey Brad Stewart won’t have to restrain him, and he can just let him settle where comfortably which will hopefully be three pairs back getting a trail behind Oregon’s Day.

If he can follow Oregon’s Day throughout and then get clear running in the final 200m, he has the turn of foot to outsprint them – provided he runs the extra 200m. 

Life Less Ordinary was an impressive winner of the Wagga Gold Cup (2000m) last start but I’m not sure that form is strong enough here, while Darren Weir’s Tradesman can’t be underestimated having won both starts over 2000m.

However, Weir did say he’s not sure if he’ll measure up in the Doomben Cup, but there are other Cup races in QLD that may suit – so maybe this is a stepping stone race while also testing him out at the same time. 

The Hollindale has always been a good guide to the Doomben Cup, and the run out of the race this year was Man Of His Word. 

*State exclusions apply to some offers. NSW Residents are excluded from welcome bonuses. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

Bonuses


Upcoming Events

NSW BOOKIES Australia

*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

News Stream

Doomben Cup - news, tips and betting advice

Share this with your friends

To:
From:
Your comments:

Doomben Cup Tips - $21 chance is absolutely flying

I think the traders have made a fair assessment of most horses in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben Cup (2000m), but I’m pretty sure they’ve got it wrong with at least one runner.

Read more »

You have unread messages

You have unread messages