Melbourne Cup Tips - Who does history point towards winning the Melbourne Cup?

  • Six-year-olds have a great record in the Melbourne Cup
  • Internationals to have had a lead up run in Melbourne perform better than those who haven't
  • Only three favourites have won the Melbourne Cup since 2000
Protectionist defeated Red Cadeaux in the 2014 Melbourne Cup

Australia's most famous horse race, the Melbourne Cup (3200m), is set to run and won on run on Tuesday November 7 and the $6 million race shapes as another classic. 

The Cup has grown into an international event, attracting gallopers from all parts of the world but finding a winner can be tough as it brings together so many and varied formlines from both Australia’s best gallopers as well as the internationals. 

We have had a look through the recent trends in the race in order to take some of the guesswork out for you and there are a few things you should consider when trying to find a winner. 

Since the year 2000, there have been only three favourites to have won the event.  Fiorente was successful in 2013 as a $7 popular elect, whilst the mighty mare, Makybe Diva, looked after punters in both 2004 and 2005 when starting as favourite. 

This year the 2016 winner, Almandin, is a $7 favourite with Ladbrokes in early markets, while the Cox Plate (2040m) runner up, Humidor, is at $8.50. The U.K galloper, Marmelo, is at $9 and he heads a host of other contenders, including Johannes Vermeer ($10), Wall Of Fire ($13) and Thomas Hobson ($15). 

The average price of the winners since 2000 is $17.75 but that figure is inflated somewhat after Prince Of Penzance scored at $101. Take Michelle Payne's winner out of the equation and the price since 2000 is $12.50. 

Other horses in the $10 - $20 price bracket include Red Cardinal ($16), Rekindling ($16) Amelie's Star ($18) and Big Duke ($19),  

The most successful age group in the Cup since 2000 has been the six-year-olds. Gallopers aged six have won nine of the past 17 Melbourne Cups including five of the past seven. Horses aged six this year are Tiberian, Red Cardinal, Bondi Beach, Big Duke, Boom Time and Amelie's Star. 

For fans of Almandin, who is now aged eight, no winner aged eight or above have won the Cup this millennium, meaning that the Lloyd Williams owned contender will have to defy that trends, as well as Max Dynamite, Who Shot Thebarman (nine) and Wicklow Brave (nine). 

At the other end of the spectrum there have been three horses aged four to have won the cup since 2000 including Shocking (2009), Efficient (2007) and Ethereal (2001).  This year, the only four-year-old is Rekindling. 

Almandin and Rekindling are among six runners in the field this year for the leviathan owner, Williams, who has won the cup on a record five occasions. His other contenders are Johannes Vermeer, Bondi Beach, US Army Ranger and Gallante. 

Ethereal is one of two mares to have won the cup since 2000, with the other being the three-time winner, Makybe Diva. This year, Single Gaze and Amelie's Star are the only two mares in the Melbourne Cup. 

Single Gaze comes off a 2nd placing in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and that major, along with the Cox Plate, has been the most successful lead up races in terms of providing cup winners since 2000, each providing four of the past 17. Three winners have come out of the Geelong Cup (2400m) and two from the Lexus Stakes (2500m). 

Single Gaze was beaten by Boom Time in the Caulfield Cup this year, while Johannes Vermeer finished 3rd. The likes of Marmelo, Amelie's Star and Ventura Storm also featured in the Caulfield Cup this year, finishing down the track. 

Humidor comes off a brilliant 2nd in the Cox Plate and will Fiorente (2013) as a recent placgetter in the weight-for-age championship that went on to score in the Cup

Shocking (2009) was the last winner to come out of the Lexus Stakes. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott-trained Cismontane was an impressive winner of that last Saturday and was also 3rd in the recent Moonee Valley Cup (2500m), the lead up that Prince Of Penzance came out of in 2015. Who Shot Thebarman won that this year ahead of Libran, while Big Duke was 4th. 

It is also interesting to note that 12 of the past 17 winners have been placed at their previous start before the Melbourne Cup and seven of those have won their last start.

Last start winners include Tiberian, Max Dynamite, Who Shot Thebarman, Boom Time, Nakeeta and Cismontane. 

Despite the influx of internationally trained gallopers to take part in the cup over the last decade, an interesting statistic is that all winners since 2000 have had their last start in Australia prior to winning the cup. No raider has won the Melbourne Cup at their first start in Australia (in that preparation). This year there are seven gallopers who have had their last race start overseas and they are Tiberian, Red Cardinal, Max Dynamite, US Army Ranger, Nakeeta, Thomas Hobson and Rekindling.  

The handicap conditions of the race have seen horses with a variety of weights win the Cup. The average weight of the winners has been a tick under 54kg and this year, Bondi Beach, Max Dynamite, Ventura Storm, Who Shot Thebarman and Wicklow Brave carry 54kg, while Big Duke and US Army Ranger cart 53.5kg. 

A lot of speculation in the lead up to the race has been how much of a factor the barrier draw will play. Whilst it is preferable to draw in, winners have come from a variety of positions. Nine of the 17 winners since 2000 have come from double digit barriers including Shocking and Brew, who drew barriers 21 and 22 respectively when they won the cup. Last year, Almandin won from 17. 

READ: Our Melbourne Cup Tips and Big Race Preview.
 Who the tipsters are backing.
READ: Runner-by-Runner guide to the Melbourne Cup.

Barrier's 5 and 7 have provided two winners apiece since 2000. This year, Big Duke and Libran occupy those spots. Almandin has drawn 14, the same position that Makybe Diva jumped from in the third of her cup wins. 

The most successful jockeys in the Melbourne Cup since 2000 have been Glen Boss and Damien Oliver. Boss was on Makybe Diva when she won three in a row while Damien Oliver famously rode Media Puzzle to victory in 2002 and was on Fiorente in 2013. This year, Oliver is missing due to suspension, while Boss picked up the ride on Ventura Storm. 

No trainer has won the race twice since the year 2000 except for Lee Freedman and Robert Hickmott. Freedman trained Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005. (David Hall was her trainer in 2003). Robert Hickmott trained Almandin last year and Green Moon in 2012. This year he trains three of the Williams runners in Almandin, Gallante and Bondi Beach. Selections based on trends

Humidor, Marmelo and Johannes Vermeer tick the most boxes. The latter two are Internationals that have had the benefit of a run in Australia, while Humidor had his previous run in the Cox Plate. Of that trio, Johannes Vermeer carries closer to the ideal weight, while his owner certainly knows how to win a Melbourne Cup. He has drawn well and just gets the nod over the other two, based on the trends since 2000. 




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