Moir Stakes Tips - Who does history point towards winning?

  • No horse has won the Moir at odds of above $8.50 this milennium
  • Petite Filous flopped as favourite in 2015, Chautauqua rolled last year
  • Buffering is a three time winner of this race. 
Buffering took out the Moir Stakes in 2015

The Moir Stakes (1000m) is set to be run and won at Moonee Valley on Friday September 27 and the sprint race is the first of three Group 1 races spread over the course of what is a bumper weekend.

The $500,000 affair has a rich honour roll and has been won by the likes of Manikato (1982), Falvelon (2000), Apache Cat (2009) and Black Caviar (2010-2011). Buffering is a three-time winner of the race, having scored in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Last year, Viddora took out the feature.

The Moir, formerly known as the Schweppes Stakes, has undergone some changes in recent times. It was formerly a Group 2 race, which was held on Cox Plate day and run over the 1200m distance from 2007 until 2014. 

In 2013, the Moir was elevated to Group 1 status and shifted to AFL Grand Final eve in late September. That year it was taken out by Samaready. 

In analysing the history of the Moir, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner, so keep these recent trends in mind come Friday night. 

The race has been won by a number of short priced favourites in the time period since the year 2000, including Falvelon, who scored at $1.40 in 2000 as well as Miss Andretti ($2.40 in 2007) and Buffering ($2 in 2012). The mighty Black Caviar scored as a $1.40 pop in 2010 and then backed up at the bank interest odds of $1.05 in 2011. 

However, Nature Strip missed out as a $1.80 chance last year, finishing down the track as Viddora scored at $12. She Will Reign won as a $4.40 chance in 2017, upstaging the $3 fancy, Russian Revolution, who could only manage 8th. Chautauqua was rolled in 2016 as a $2.50 popular elect by Extreme Choice ($5). 

In early markets with BetEasy this year Nature Strip is rated a $2.75 favourite of bouncing back, while Sunlight is at $6. The Godolphin galloper, Trekking, is $7, while the dual Group 1 winner, The Bostonian, heads the rest at $11. 

For fans of that quartet, history does suggest that the winner will come from one of the first few in the market. The average price of the winning horses has been just $5 and Viddora was the first winner this millennium to have won at $10 or above. Amazingly, Bomber Bill (at $8.50 in 2004) is the second longest priced winner of the Moir since 2000. 

Two of the past three editions of the Moir have been won by three-year-olds. No horses aged three raced last year and the same applies this year. Four and five-year-olds have shared eight of the 19 Moir Stakes since 2000. 

Assertive Approach and Sunlight are the four-year-olds, while eight of the field of 15 are aged five. They are Trekking, The Bostonian, Nature Strip Viridine, Booker, Winter Bride, Meryl and Miss Leonidas

Sunlight, Booker, Winter Bride, Meryl and Miss Leonidas are the mares in the race. The fillies & mares have a terrific record, accounting for nine of the 18 winners despite being underrepresented. Last year, Viddora joined the likes of Our Egyptian Raine, Spinning Hill, Black Caviar and Miss Andretti as winners of the Moir.

Successful barriers to jump from have been 2, 3 and 7, accounting for 10 of the 18 winners since 2000. Eduardo, Ball Of Muscle and Miss Leonidas occupy those spots. Two of the past three winners have drawn barrier 9. Bons Away has drawn that barrier. 

Five of the past six winners have drawn in the second half of the field. Booker, Trekking, Winter Bride, The Bostonian, Assertive Approach and Faatinah are among those that have drawn out. 

With the change in dates for this race, the lead up form to this is hard to get a gauge on. The past five winners have claimed the race as their first up run from a spell. Two were first up off a Golden Slipper (1200m) campaign. Two were first up after running in the Doomben 10000, while Viddora had her last run in the Goodwood. 

In 2015, Buffering resumed off a long break after finishing 6th in the Hong Kong Sprint (1200m). In 2014 he was resuming after running 3rd in the Doomben 10,000 (1350m) the previous autumn. 

Trekking, The Bostonian, Viridine, Tactical Advantage and Winter Bride are the runners that are resuming in the Moir. Ball Of Muscle, Faatinah, Nature Strip, Eduardo, Sunlight, Booker and Miss Leonidas are those that have had one run under their belt. 

Successful trainers in the Moir include Robert Heathcote, courtesy of Buffering, and Peter Moody. Mick Price won the race with Samaready in 2013 and Extreme Choice in 2016. None of that trio have a runner this year. 

Craig Newitt, Damien Browne, Luke Nolen and Damien Oliver are all multiple winning jockeys. Of that quartet, Oliver rides Booker. 

Selections according to trends:

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Moir Stakes Tips - Who does history point towards winning?

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