Randwick Guineas Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Randwick Guineas was formerly the Canterbury Guineas and switched to Randwick in 2006
  • Hobartville Stakes is the ideal lead up form 
Dissident is a former winner of the Randwick Guineas

The Randwick Guineas (1600m) is the first leg of the Sydney Three-Year-Old Triple Crown, which also consists of the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Australian Derby (2400m). 

It has been one by some champion gallopers over the years, including the likes of It's A Dundeel and Weekend Hussler, while Octagonal won the race back in 1996 when it was known as the Canterbury Guineas. 

The Randwick Guineas was moved to its current home of Randwick racecourse in 2006, having previously been held at the tight turning Canterbury racecourse in Sydney's inner west. 

In that time period, the average price of the winning horses has been $7 with six favourites winning. They were last years winner, Kementari at $2.35, Ilovethiscity at $1.90 in 2011, Shoot Out at $3 in 2010, Weekend Hussler at $1.65 in 2008 and Mentality at $2.75 in 2007. 

This year, The Autumn Sun is a dominant $1.50 favourite in early markets with sportsbet, while the last start Surround Stakes (1500m) winner, Nakeeta Jane, is at $6. Vegadaze ($10) and Fundamentalist ($14) head the rest. 

If we analyse the trends of the Randwick Guineas since the year 2000, we see that 16 of the 19 winners have started at odds of $10 or below. Le Romain scored at $21 in 2016, defeating Press Statement, while Dissident ($11 in 2014) was another recent winner that started at double figure odds. 

Only three have started at odds of $2 or below and they were Ilovethiscity (2011), Weekend Hussler (2008) and Press Statement. Of that trio, only Press Statement went down. 

The ideal lead up form to the Randwick Guineas has traditionally been the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) and eight of the past nine winners have come out of that lead up. Four of those winners have completed the double including Kementari, as well as the 2015 winner, Hallowed Crown, Dissident and Ilovethiscity (2011). 

This year, The Autumn Sun claimed that lead up from Vegadaze. Purple Sector was 4th. 

This year's edition of the race sees a field of nine in action and if you are considering a wager on you will be pleased to know that horses drawn wide in the field have a respectable record in this race. 

Half of winners since 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field, including Inference, Dissident and Mosheen (2012). Vegadaze (7) and Nakeeta Jane (9) are among those that have drawn out. The Autumn Sun jumps from barrier 4. 

For fans of the Chris Waller, who trains The Autumn Sun, note that the Randwick Guineas is one of the only feature mile races at the track that the champion trainer is yet to claim. He was unable to break his duck in 2016 with Press Statement. John Hawkes and Jack Denham are the only multiple winning trainers since 2000. 

James Cummings saddled up Kementari last year and teamed with his Grandfather, Bart, to win the event in 2014 with Hallowed Crown. He has Hallowed Crown this year. Kris Lees trains one of the outsiders of the race this year in Miss Fabulass and upset Press Statement with Le Romain in 2016. 

Selection based on trends:

This is a bit of a tricky one on trends with some eerie similarities to Press Statement missing out a few years ago. But the Hobartville Stakes has always been the ideal form reference and The Autumn Sun does look to have the measure of his rivals. 

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