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Sydney Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner

  • Drawing in the first half of the field has been an advantage, despite the long distance of the race
  • Five-year-olds have been the most successful in recent times
  • The Chairmans Hadicap has been the best guide to finding a winner in this race
The Offer won the Chairmans Handicap in 2014 before going on to win the Sydney Cup

The Sydney Cup (3200m) is one of the oldest races on the Australian calendar and while it does not enjoy the limelight of the Melbourne Cup (3200m), it has been won by some quality performers, including Makybe Diva (2004), Tie The Knot (1998/99) and Kingston Town (1980). 

In analysing the recent trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to keep in mind when placing a bet on the $2 million Group 1. 

Finding a winner can be a little tricky due to the lack of similar distance races on the calendar and the average price of the winning horses has been $10. 

Last year, the Team Williams horse, Gallante, won at odds of $10, while Chris Waller's Grand Marshall won the race at $41 in 2015. Mourayan ($12 in 2013) was another Williams galloper to take out the Sydney Cup, while Stand To Gain ($21 in 2011) also won the race at over double figure odds in recent years. 

On the flip side, a healthy total of seven favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Offer in 2014 and Niwot in 2012, while, surprisingly, Makybe Diva was a $3.50 second favourite behind Mummify ($3) when she won the race in 2004. 

In early betting markets with CrownBet this year, Big Duke is a $3.40 popular elect ahead of Penglai Pavilion at $5.50 and Polarisation at $7. Lasqueti Spirit is a $10 chance ahead of Tally at $12. 

The 3200m start at Randwick is a short run to the home turn before the stayers pass the post and embark on one full lap as they head for Group 1 glory. Despite the long distance, a good barrier can be crucial and eight of the past 10 winners have drawn in the first half of the field. 

Barriers 1, 2, 4 and 8 have all provided multiple winners, with the latter being the place to be as six winners have jumped form that spot since 2000. This year, the Charlie Appleby-trained Polarisation has drawn 8, while Tally, Big Duke and Polarisation are in 1, 2 and 4 respectively. 

The most successful age group since the year 2000 has been the five-year-olds with seven winners, while horses aged seven have provided four winners. Only two four-year-olds have won the race in that time period and they were Honor Babe in 2003 and Jessicabeel in 2010. 

Of the runners this year, Big Duke, Boom Time, Harlem, Pentathlon, and Polarisation are aged five, while Chance To Dance, Mister Impatience and Pengai Pavilion are seven. 

The race has been shared amongst a variety of trainers in the last 16 years and Chris Waller and Robert Hickmott are the only multiple winners. Waller saddled up Grand Marshall in 2015 and Stand To Gain in 2011. He takes Who Shot Thebarman and Libran this year. 

Hickmott trained Gallante and The Offer, while owner Lloyd Williams also had success with Gallic in 2006. This year, the leading Victorian stable has no runner. Recent stable member, Chance To Dance, is now in the hands of Stephen Autridge and Jamie Richards. 

There has been an even spread of jockeys to have won the race with only Jim Cassidy successful on multiple occasions, but this year, the 'Pumper' will be kicking back enjoying retirement. 

The key lead up form to the Sydney Cup has traditionally been the Chairman's Handicap (2600m), held at Randwick the week prior. Nine of the past 17 winners have had their last start in that race, including three of the past four, while the BMW (2400m) has also provided four winners. Big Duke took out the Chairman's this year. In the BMW, Who Shot Thebarman ran 4th to Jameka.

Finally, for fans of Who Shot Thebarman, who carries topweight this weekend, Mourayan has been the only 'toppie' to have won the Sydney Cup since 2000, scoring with 58kg in 2013. 

The average weight that has been carried to victory has been 54kg and horses closest to that mark this year are Tally (55kg), Boom Time (53.5kg) and Chance To Dance (53kg). 

Selections according to trends. 

Big Duke

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