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Sydney Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Drawing in the first half of the field has been an advantage, despite the long distance of the race
  • Five-year-olds have been the most successful in recent times
  • The Chairmans Hadicap has been the best guide to finding a winner in this race
The Offer won the Chairmans Handicap in 2014 before going on to win the Sydney Cup

The Sydney Cup (3200m) is one of the oldest races on the Australian calendar and while it does not enjoy the limelight of the Melbourne Cup (3200m), it has been won by some quality performers, including Makybe Diva (2004), Tie The Knot (1998/99) and Kingston Town (1980). 

In analysing the recent trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to keep in mind when placing a bet on the $2 million Group 1. 

Finding a winner can be a little tricky due to the lack of similar distance races on the calendar and the average price of the winning horses has been $9.70. 

Last year, the Charlie Appleby-trained Polarisation took out the race as a $6.50 chance. The then five-year-old won what was 'take two' of the famous event, which was re-run two weeks after the first was declared a no race due to Almoonqith breaking down the first time the field went past the finish.  

A total of seven favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Offer in 2014 and Niwot in 2012, while, surprisingly, Makybe Diva was a $3.50 second favourite behind Mummify ($3) when she won the race in 2004. 

In early betting markets with CrownBet this year, Almandin is a $3.90 popular elect ahead of Sir Charles Road at $6.50 and Aloft at $7.50. The capacity field of 20 runners includes Ventura Storm and Pre Stwick at $12 as well as Auvray ($14), Who Shot Thebarman ($15) and Lord Fandango ($18). 

The 3200m start at Randwick is a short run to the home turn before the stayers pass the post and embark on one full lap as they head for Group 1 glory. Despite the long distance, a good barrier can be crucial and six of the past nine winners have drawn between barriers 1 and 6. 


This year, Auvray, Lord Fandango, Cismontane, Sir Charles Road, Almandin and Peribsen occupy those spots. 

The most successful age group since the year 2000 has been the five-year-olds with eight winners, including the last four, while horses aged seven have provided four winners. Only two four-year-olds have won the race in the time period since 2000 and they were Honor Babe in 2003 and Jessicabeel in 2010. 

Of the runners this year, Ventura Storm, Single Gaze, Five To Midnight, Lord Fandango, Zacada, Gallic Chieftain, Cismontane, Peribsen, Admiral Jello and Ormito are all aged five. Almandin is an eight-year-old and since the year 2000, only Ista Kareem (in 2009) has won this event at that age. 

The race has been shared amongst a variety of trainers in the last 16 years and Chris Waller and Robert Hickmott are the only multiple winners. Waller saddled up Grand Marshall in 2015 and Stand To Gain in 2011. He takes Who Shot Thebarman, Libran and Patrick Erin into the race this year. 

Hickmott trained Gallante and The Offer, while owner Lloyd Williams also had success with Gallic in 2006. This year, Liam Howley is the head trainer at Macedon Lodge and the stable have a strong hand with Almandin and Aloft. 

There has been an even spread of jockeys to have won the race with only Jim Cassidy and Corey Brown successful on multiple occasions. This year, the 'Pumper' Cassidy is kicking back enjoying retirement, while Brown steers Peribsen. 

The key lead up form to the Sydney Cup has traditionally been the Chairman's Handicap (2600m), held at Randwick the week prior. Nine of the past 18 winners have had their last start in that race, including three of the past five, while the BMW (2400m) has also provided four winners. Sir Charles Road took out the Chairman's this year ahead of Ventura Storm and Peribsen. 

Finally, for fans of Almandin, who carries topweight this weekend, Mourayan has been the only 'toppie' to have won the Sydney Cup since 2000, scoring with 58kg in 2013. 

The average weight that has been carried to victory has been 54kg and Libran carries that weight his year, while Ventura Storm has been allotted 53.5kg. 

Selections according to trends. 

Almandin or Aloft can win for Team Williams, who have a brilliant record in this race. If you are keen to take on this stable, Sir Charles Road comes out of the right lead up and has drawn well. 

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