Bet Of The Day October 3

Andrew Hendrie:
Bet Of The Day October 3

The NRL Grand Final between the Penrith Panthers and South Sydney Rabbitohs features as Bettingpro.com.au’s best bet for Sunday October 3.

Bet Of The Day October 3 – read on below for our reasoning behind today’s best bet.

It’s NRL Grand Final day and we’re backing the Panthers to erase last season’s heartbreak by toppling the Rabbitohs to claim a first premiership since 2003.

You know the old saying ‘you have to lose one to win one’ – that experience from last season could prove pivotal as the Panthers look to cap a fantastic two years with the silverware.

The Panthers have been the most consistent team of the last two seasons, but now they need a premiership to justify all the excellent work Ivan Cleary and his side have done.

Penrith were on fire until the Origin period, where they lost a bunch of key players and Nathan Cleary was sidelined for a month through injury.

The Panthers regained some of their best form with five straight wins heading into the finals, before they were upset 16-10 by none other than the Rabbitohs in Week 1.

However, we believe Penrith can turn the tables and win when it matters most.

Grand Final victories are built on the back of defence and the Panthers have been rock solid in that aspect of their game over the last fortnight.

Indeed, the Panthers have conceded just one try each to the Eels and Storm to reach the Grand Final, with their performance against the reigning premiers last week one to behold.

Souths are more fresh, but they are missing their best and most dynamic player in Latrell Mitchell, while there are question marks surrounding Adam Reynolds’ fitness and ability to do the kicking.

There’s also the age-old stat that no team has ever won the Grand Final after conceding 50+ points during the regular season. Souths did that twice, including against the Panthers.

Penrith have won six of the last eight meetings between the teams and are the more reliable side when it comes to the crunch – as they’ve proved over the last two weeks. Their goal-line defence is almost impenetrable and if Reynolds isn’t at his best, Souths could get frustrated in attack.

We’ll be backing the Panthers with a -2.5 handicap as our best bet, but we also like the value in Penrith winning a tight one with minimal points.

Seven of the last eight meetings between the teams have seen under 40 points, while four of the last six Grand Finals have produced 33 points or less. Penrith 1-12 & under 40.5 points paying a tidy $4.00 looks solid to us!

Key Points

  • Panthers have won six of the last eight meetings between the teams
  • Seven of the last eight Grand Finals have seen 40 points or less
  • Four of the Panthers’ last six wins over Rabbitohs were by 1-12 margins
  • Four of the last six Grand Finals have produced 33 points or less
  • Four of the last six Grand Finals have been decided by 1-12 margins
  • No team has won the Grand Final after conceding 50+ points in the regular season
  • Souths conceded 50+ points twice during the regular season, including vs Penrith

BET OF THE DAY OCTOBER 3 👇

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