Australasian Oaks Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner of the Schweppes Oaks?

  • What are the recent trends in The Group 1 Australasian Oaks?

The Schweppes Oaks (2000m), also known as the Australasian Oaks, is one of the big Group 1 races during the autumn carnival in Adelaide and has been won in the past by some quality performers including Rose Of Kingston (1982), Mannerism (1991) and Delicacy (2015). 

Picking a winner in the $400,000 race can often be tricky as it usually attracts large numbers of runners with varying formlines, as they all converge from different venues towards Morphettville. 

Despite this, it has been a great race for favourite backers and if we analyse the trends since the year 2000, we see that the average price of the winning horses has been a relatively low $6.60.

In the years the race has been run this millennium, 10 winners have started as the popular elect including May's Dream in 2014 ($3.20) as well as Lights Of Heaven in 2011 ($2.50). 

The 2017 winner, Egg Tart, shared favouritism with Kenedna. Last year's winner, Sopressa, started at $6.50, just behind the $5 favourite, Savacool, who ran 5th. 

The 2016 winner, Abbey Marie, started as a $7 chance behind Silent Sedition at $3, while in 2015 it was Delicacy that also won at $7. Only two horses have paid more than $8 since the year 2000 and they were Small Minds in 2010 and Irish Darling back in 2005. 

In early markets with sportsbet this year, Princess Jenni and Amangirl share favouritism at the $4 quote, while Aristia is at $7. Zalatte ($7.50) and Sure Knee ($9.50) are others under double figure odds, while Mirette at $12 heads the rest. 

Sopressa came out of one of the key lead ups to the Schweppes Oaks last year, the Auraria Stakes (1800m). That race is usually run at Morphettville a fortnight before the Oaks and this year it was Mirette that claimed that lead up ahead of Dreamed and Sizzleme. 

Seven of the 18 winners since 2000 had their previous run in the Auraria before claiming the Oaks, including four of the past seven. Egg Tart and Abbey Marie had their prior runs in weaker races in Melbourne before scoring in the Oaks. 

Princess Jenni will be trying to emulate those two after winning over 1600m at Caulfield at her most recent run. She was a Group 3 winner over the same trip prior to that. Sure Knee finished runner-up to Princess Jenni last time. 

Amangirl and Aristia had their most recent runs at Randwick. Aristia ran 11th in the ATC Oaks (2400m). Zalatte comes off a 9th placing at Flemington. 

This year, 15 of the 20 runners (including the four emergencies) are listed as being trained in Victoria. Horses from the garden state have accounted for nine of the 19 winners since 2000, while locally trained gallopers have been successful on just the three occasions in that time period.

An interesting statistic in the Schweppes Oaks is that there appears to be no obvious advantage for horses drawn in the first half of the field. 11 winners since 2000 have drawn in the first half of the field, while eight have drawn in the outer four positions. 

The most successful positions to jump from have been barriers 1 and 13, combining four seven winners. This year, the third emergency, Havana Heat, has drawn the inside but Amangirl might eventually jump from that slot if Havana Heat cannot get a run. 

The most successful trainers in the race since the year 2000 have been Phillip Stokes and Darren Weir with two winners apiece. This year, Stokes has the first emergency, So We Are. 

Of the hoops, only Greg Childs has ridden multiple winners, but that former jockey is long retired. Damien Oliver, Kerrin McEvoy and Craig Williams are among other jockeys that have enjoyed success since 2000. Oliver rides Princess Jenni this year, while Williams is on Collectable. 

Selection according to trends

Princess Jenni can claim Group 1 success and has recent history on her side. 


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