Australian Guineas Runners - Runner-by-runner Guide

  • Runner-by-runner guide for the Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m)

The Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday, March 2. 

Here is our runner-by-runner guide for the Australian Guineas.

1. EXTRA BRUT (9) - Ciaron Maher & David Eustace, Michael Walker, 56.5kg 
Possibly the best horse in this race is near 20/1 in early markets and that’s Extra Brut. He obviously won the Victorian Derby (2500m) the Spring and ran so well on the seven-day back-up in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) behind Trap For Fools and Irish Derby winner Latrobe. I thought his first-up run in the C.S. Hayes Stakes was good without luck. He ran a similar race to Stars Of Carrum, both were held-up and couldn’t get runs. He will be fitter but the questions is, will he be sharp enough to win over 1600m? I can’t see him getting the frantic tempo he needs to win but a good run wouldn’t surprise me.
Odds: $19.00 (Sportsbet

2. LONG LEAF (7) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Jamie Kah, 56.5kg 
Long Leaf has never been a horse that entertains me. Is he a sprinter or a miler, I’m pretty sure Lindsay Park still don’t know. His run in the Sandown Guineas behind Ringerdingding was good but I couldn’t see him turning the tables on that galloper. He is a measuring stick for three-year-olds, if you can beat Long Leaf then you’re a pretty good horse. I’m happy enough to put the pen through him at the price, I’d need $71 to back him.
Odds: $23.00 (Sportsbet)

3. STARS OF CARRUM (13) - Robbie Laing, Ben Melham, 56.5kg 
Speaking of things that don’t entertain me, seeing R.Laing in the form guide never fills me with incredible confidence but I can’t discount the ability that Stars Of Carrum has. I thought he was clearly the run of the day two weeks ago at Flemington in the C.S. Hayes Stakes, he started $91 and had absolutely no luck in the straight. Considering he went to the line hard held, his figures from the race were outstanding. he ran the sixth-fastest last 200m of the day (11.20s) equal with Verry Elleegant and faster than the likes of Widgee Turf and Divine Quality. He ran his last 600m 7.4 lengths above benchmark, which was less than two-lengths off the closing 600m of Osborne Bulls. He may need 2000m+ but I won’t be losing on him at a massive price. 
Odds: $23.00 (Beteasy)

4. RINGERDINGDING (14) - Chris Waller, John Allen, 56.5kg 
At a double-figure price, Ringerdingding looks like the best each-way bet of the Autumn Carnival. He was scratched from the C.S. Hayes Stakes and went to the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) and you won’t see many better tenth-placed finishes. He was back at the tail of the field and lost touch with the palaton at the 400m mark. I put that down to a small lack of fitness second-up and him not loving the home turn at Caulfield. As he recorded the third-fastest 600-400m split but then only the eighth-fastest 400m-200m split. Once balanced up, he ripped home running the fastest last 200m of the race (11.26s) and took 2.8 lengths off Alizee in that final furlong. He now backs up seven days later and has shown he can handle the quick back up, winning the Sandown Guineas off a seven day backup. He gets back to Flemington, the scene of his best win and should eat up the mile third-up. Top Pick.
Odds: $10.00 (Beteasy)

5. RANIER (15) - James Cummings, Craig Newitt, 56.5kg 
Barrier 15 makes things extremely difficult for Ranier, who’s run last start in the C.S. Hayes Stakes was solid. Goes C.Williams to C.Newitt which is a negative and I’m happy to risk him.
Odds: $31.00 (Sportsbet)

6. CHAPADA (16) - Michael Moroney, Damien Oliver, 56.5kg 
Chapada is a very interesting runner. He arguably should’ve won the Victorian Derby last preparation and returned in the C.S. Hayes Stakes first-up. What I found extremely interesting was the money for him, he was $12 into $7 for a horse that was first-up over 1400m and going to get back from barrier 17 on a day that favoured horses on the fence. This is a serious racehorse and the market reflected that. He made very good ground from eight horses off the fence (Lane 8), a lane where horses struggled to make ground from all day. He ran the best last 600m of the race (8.9 lengths above benchmark) but did get the clear run in comparison to Stars Of Carrum and Extra Brut. From barrier 16, Ollie will be forced to go back and seeing him flash home wouldn’t surprise me at all, fifth-top rated runner. 
Odds: $23.00 (Sportsbet)

7. THE INEVITABLE (3) - Scott Brunton, Sigrid Carr, 56.5kg 
The winner of the C.S. Hayes Stakes has won the Australian Guineas the last four years in a row. The winner of that race is the Tasmanian horse The Inevitable. She has won five races in a row and hasn’t done anything wrong. The trainer Scott Brunton is a deadset freak and for that reason he is a chance. 
Odds: $19.00 (Neds

8. HAWKSHOT (17) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Mark Zahra, 56.5kg 
Although he got the perfect run out in front last start in the Group 2 Autumn Stakes (1400m), he did look like a new horse first-up in the Lindsay Parks table, able to roll along and dictate out in front. He went 12.1 lengths above benchmark which was seven-lengths faster than his previous best performance. I doubt he gets as good a time in front here but he must be considered.
Odds: $8.00 (Neds

9. PERFORMER (11) - Chris Waller, Stephen Baster, 56.5kg 
Not here, too hard.
Odds: $67.00 (Sportsbet

10. SCOTTISH ROGUE (6) - Tony McEvoy, Luke Currie, 56.5kg 
He beat all bar Ringerdingding in the Hilton Stakes (1400m) here at Flemington last preparation. He looks five-lengths off these top three-year-olds. 
Odds: $61.00 (Sportsbet

11. DEALMAKER (8) - Chris Waller, Michael Dee, 56.5kg 
Dealmaker wasn’t far off Hawkshot and beat home Ringerdingding last start in the Autumn Stakes, he was six-lengths off Stars Of Carrum in a Derby lead-up over the Spring and that’s probably his level. I couldn’t get him shorter than $51 here. 
Odds: $21.00 (Beteasy)

12. O’TAUTO (4) - Greg Eurell, Dwayne Dunn, 56.5kg 
This horse would need to improve eight-lengths on his last start third in the C.S. Hayes Stakes to be in the finish here, not for me.
Odds: $46.00 (Sportsbet)

13. ADANA (10) - Chris Waller, Luke Nolen, 56.5kg 
Adana came into her first-up run with big wraps after her flashing light fourth in the Carbine Club Stakes here at Flemington over the Spring Carnival. She started favourite in the C.S. Hayes Stakes and although she didn’t have the perfect run in transit, was disappointing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her run well. 
Odds: $27.00 (Sportsbet

14. AMPHITRITE (5) - David & B Hayes & T Dabernig, Craig Williams, 54.5kg 
Amphitrite ticks plenty of boxes, she won the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) over this track and distance before winning the Thousand Guineas. She returned well in the Vanity, aided by a poor ride by M.Walkeron Fundamentalist she won and won impressively. Her best figure of 11 lengths above benchmark isn’t the best figure in the race and I just wonder if she is slightly overrated because of the flashing style of her wins.She isn’t in my numbers but I do conceded she is a terrific winning chance, I just couldn’t have her as short as the market suggests.
Odds: $4.40 (Beteasy

15. MYSTIC JOURNEY (1) - Adam Trinder, Anthony Darmanin, 54.5kg 
Mystic Journey is a deadset superstar. Her win on Cox Plate Day was outstanding. She was three-wide the trip and was still far too strong late, the only other horse to win on the day outside of three horses off the fence was Winx. Her figures were outstanding, as she ran 4.6 lengths above the class benchmark, which was the best performed run of the entire meeting on Cox Plate Day. The big concern, barrier one for Anthony Darmanin. After the barrier draw, Darmanin said the only barrier he didn’t want was barrier one, as Mystic Journey doesn’t enjoy racing inside of horses. If she gets clear air at the top of the straight then she is clearly the horse to beat, if not then who knows what will happen.
Odds: $4.80 (Neds

16. VERRY ELLEEGANT (2) - Chris Waller, Damien Lane, 54.5kg 
Barrier two isn’t ideal for Verry Elleegant, who is still racing ungenerously when inside horses. She has the talent, arguably should’ve beaten Amphitrite first-up but will be back on the fence and it will take a D.Lane masterstroke to have her in the finish. 
Odds: $10.00 (Palmerbet)

17e. DECLARATIONOFHEART (12) - Anthony Freedman, TBA, 56.5kg 
Blinkers and concussion plate on first-time. He is a complete myth of a horse that promises but hasn’t delivered. If he couldn’t go past All Hard Wood, how is he winning this? 
Odds: $34.00 (Beteasy

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Australian Guineas Runners - Runner-by-runner Guide

The Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) will be run and won at Flemington on Saturday, March 2.

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