Australian Guineas Tips - How does history help us find the winner?


Wandjina took out the Australian Guineas in 2015 from Alpine Eagle

The Australian Guineas (1600m) is the leading race for the three-year-olds in the Melbourne autumn and has been won by the likes of Shamus Award, Miss Finland, Apache Cat and Mahogany. 

Last year, the $1 million affair was taken out by the Mick Price-trained Grunt and this year's field sees a competitive field in action. 

If we analyse the trends of the $750,000 Group 1 since the year 2000, there are a few things to keep in mind when it comes to finding a winner. 

10 of the past 19 winners have been colts, while six have been geldings and three were fillies, including Mosheen (2012), Shamrocker (2011) and Miss Finland (2007). 

This year, a number of the leading contenders are fillies including Amphitrite, Mystic Journey and Verry Elleegant. Amphitrite heads the betting with sportsbet in early markets and is at $4.20, while Mystic Journey is at $4.80. Verry Elleegant ($9.50) is just behind Hawkshot ($7.50) and alongside Ringerdingding ($9.50). Extra Brut and The Inevitable head the rest at $16. 

For fans of Amphitrite it should be noted that only one favourite has won the race since 2008 and that was the 2017 winner, Hey Doc. 

The Tony McEvoy galloper broke a bit of a hoodoo for the popular elects in this race by scoring as a $3.50 chance. Shamus Award won as a $4.50 second favourite in 2014, while in 2016 Palentino, scored at the odds of $9. Grunt started as a $5.50 chance last year and was too good for the favourite in the race, Cliff's Edge, who ran 7th. 

For those that like an each-way wager on horses that are priced at double figure odds or better, there have been a few 'blowout' winners since 2000 with Ferlax (2013) and Rock Classic (2009) both scoring at odds of $17, while Shamrocker won at the odds of $31 in 2011.

The Guineas has changed complexion in recent times with capacity, or near capacity, fields accepting for the race. Smaller fields were the order of the day from 2000-2010. In recent year’s, some runners have copped interference including Kermadec, who ran into traffic in 2015, while Tarzino was an unlucky runner in 2016.  However, Grunt was able to win from gate 16 last year. 

Barriers can play a very important role in this race and 12 of the past of the 19 winners since 2000 have drawn between No's 1 and 7. Of the fancied gallopers this year, Mystic Journey (1), Verry Elleegant (2), The Inevitable (4) and Amphitrite (5) jump from that spread. 

Outside of Grunt, only two other gallopers have won from double digit barriers since 2000 and they were Palentino (2016) and Mosheen (2012). 

The most successful trainer in the race since the year 2000 has been Mick Price, who has won the Guineas on three occasions in that time period. Gai Waterhouse and Danny O'Brien, who have all won the Australian Guineas twice since 2000. Those trainers are without a runner this year. 

Leading hoops include Damien Oliver, Craig Newitt, Craig Williams, Danny Nikolic and Noel Callow, who have each won the race twice since the year 2000. Williams will ride Amphitrite, while Oliver is on Chapada. 

An interesting statistic is that only three horses from Sydney have won the race since 2000 but the leading Sydneysiders tend to target the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and we can virtually ignore this trend. 

Finally, horses to have won the Australian Guineas have come out of a variety of races including the C.S Hayes Stakes (1400m) for the colts and geldings and the Vanity (1400m) for the fillies. Both races are run at Flemington a fortnight prior to the Guineas. The C S Hayes Stakes has provided the last four winners with three of those completing the double. 

This year it was The Inevitable that took out the C.S.Hayes from Age Of Chivalry, while Amphitrite and Verry Elleegant provided the quinella in the Vanity. 

Selections based on trends:

This is a wide open betting race and on trends, The Inevitable can make his presence felt at the each-way quote. 


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