Australian Guineas Tips - How does history help us find the winner

  • Hey Doc claimed victory in the Australian Guineas last year
  • 10 of the past 18 winners have been colts, five have been geldings, three fillies. 
  • C.S.Hayes Stakes and The Vanity have been strong lead up references
Wandjina took out the Australian Guineas in 2015 from Alpine Eagle

The Australian Guineas (1600m) is the leading race for the three-year-olds in the Melbourne autumn and has been won by the likes of Miss Finland, Apache Cat and Mahogany. 

Zabeel and Flying Spur are other big names to have won the Australian Guineas and because of the efforts of those two, who would go on to become hugely successful sires, the race is often referred to as the stallion making race. 

If we analyse the trends of the $750,000 Group 1 since the year 2000, there are a few things to keep in mind when it comes to finding a winner. 

Nine of the past 18 winners have been colts, while six have been geldings and three were fillies, including Mosheen (2012), Shamrocker (2011) and Miss Finland (2007). 

This year, a number of the leading contenders are colts including Cliff's Edge, Grunt Addictive Nature and Mighty Boss, while Aloisia and Bring Me Roses are the two fillies in there ace. 

For fans of Cliff's Edge, who has been posted a $4.60 favourite in early markets with ladbrokes, it should be noted that only one favourite has won the race since 2008 and that was last years winner, Hey Doc. 

The Tony McEvoy galloper broke a bit of a hoodoo for he popular elects in this race by scoring as a $3.50 chance. Shamus Award won as a $4.50 second favourite in 2014, while in 2016 Palentino, scored at the odds of $9. 

Grunt is second in the market at $6 ahead of Aloisia ($8) and those two sit close to the average price of the winning horses in this race, which is $7.70. 

For those that like an each-way wager on horses that are priced at double figure odds or better, there have been a few 'blowout' winners since 2000 with Ferlax (2013) and Rock Classic (2009) both scoring at odds of $17, while Shamrocker won at the odds of $31 in 2011. 

Notable performers that are around those odds this year include Mighty Boss and Peaceful State (both $13), Main Stage ($15), Levendi ($16) and Villermont ($16). 

The Guineas has changed complexion in recent times with capacity, or near capacity, fields accepting for the race. Smaller fields were the order of the day from 2000-2010. In recent year’s, some runners have copped interference including Kermadec, who ran into traffic in 2015, while Tarzino was an unlucky runner in 2016.  

Barriers can play a very important role in this race and 12 of the past of the 18 winners since 2000 have drawn between No's 1 and 7. Of the fancied gallopers this year, Cliff's Edge has drawn 16, while Grunt is in 17. Aloisia has drawn 13, while Addictive Nature is barrier 8. Those slots will come in with the removal of emergencies and/or scratchings. Only two gallopers have won from double digit barriers since 2000 but they have both come in the larger field from the last seven years 

Successful trainers in the race include Mick Price, Gai Waterhouse and Danny O'Brien, who have all won the Australian Guineas on two occasions since 2000. Price trains the leading contender, Grunt, as well as Holy Snow. Darren Weir will be hoping one of his two chances, Cliff's Edge or Peaceful State, can join Palentino as a winner of this race from his stable. 

Leading hoops include Craig Newitt, Craig Williams, Danny Nikolic and Noel Callow, who have each won the race twice since the year 2000. Williams will ride Addictive Nature, while Newitt has been booked for the first emergency, Paret. 

An interesting statistic is that only three horses from Sydney have won the race since 2000. Addictive Nature is one that is from north of the border but the leading Sydneysiders tend to target the Randwick Guineas (1600m) and we can virtually ignore this trend. 

Finally, horses to have won the Australian Guineas have come out of a variety of races including the C.S Hayes Stakes (1400m) for the colts and geldings and the Vanity (1400m) for the fillies. Both races are run at Flemington a fortnight prior to the Guineas. 

This year, Grunt just ran down Cliff's Edge in the C.S.Hayes, while Muraaqeb was 3rd. Main Stage ran on well for 4th. Bring Me Roses ran 2nd in the Vanity, while Aloisia ran on for 5th. 

Selections based on trends:

Grunt has drawn a tricky barrier but has the right lead up form and his trainer has always been a force in this race. 


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