Australian Oaks Betting Tips – New Zealand fillies have the edge

  • Jameka the class filly throughout the spring
  • Will she be beaten at Randwick on Saturday
  • Two value runners loom as dangers to the favourite

Will Jameka be beaten in the Australian Oaks?

Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Oaks (2400m) will see a tough group of 14 fillies battle around Royal Randwick for $1 million in prizemoney.

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The race is full of great chances, and the track rating will have a significant impact on how the race pans out.

In the past 30 years only two horses have finished worse than 5th place in a lead-up race and then won the Australian Oaks.

That statistic sees Honesta, Ambience, Chabaud, Believe and Aurora’s Star knocked out as contenders for this year’s title – and I’m comfortable with that based on their form too.

We’re still far from finding the winner, but it’s a good start to let the law of averages help to narrow it down a bit.

When considering lead-up races, the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) are by far the best form races, while the Australian Derby can throw up a winner or two also.

Jameka’s run in the Australian Derby was sensational, but the only query is, how much did it take out of her?

She had to work from the wide gate and was caught four wide around the first bend, and if that wasn’t bad enough, Damien Oliver had to send her forward a little more to get outside the leader.

She took the lead at the 600m mark and gave her all in the straight but was no match for Tavago.

Ciaron Maher won’t start her unless she’s 100 percent, but you just have to wonder if she’ll race a bit flat when having to do plenty of work from the widest barrier again.

Diamond Made was a sensational winner of the Adrian Knox Stakes, and Alaskan Rose also put in an eye-catching run when getting home from the tail of the field.

Although the Adrian Knox form is generally a reliable source, my biggest concern is the Slow 6 track may have flattened a few of these fillies which is why I’m leaning toward the Vinery Stud Stakes form to find the winner.

Vinery winner Single Gaze was brilliant, as was Valley Girl (2nd) and Happy Hannah (3rd) who motored home.

With Randwick being rated a Heavy 9 on Tuesday, and more rain predicted for Thursday, Friday and Saturday, I’m doing my form for a Soft to Heavy track and think that stands two out from the Vinery Stud Stakes.

Single Gaze is by supreme wet track sire Not A Single Doubt, and although her win was brilliant, the biggest concern is the filly running out a solid 2400m – especially on a Heavy track.

Of the many stakes winner’s he’s sired, only two (Single Gaze and Gypsy Diamond) have won over 2000m.

My Ex Mate is the only progeny to win over a longer trip when taking out the Group 3 Lord Reims Stakes (2600m) at Morphettville, but that is a far cry from the Group 1 Australian Oaks.

This really has me leaning toward a Derby/Oaks clean sweep for New Zealand with Valley Girl or Sophia Rosa taking the prize.

Valley Girl reminds me of Mongolian Khan when he came over from winning the New Zealand Derby and ran a good race in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) before stepping back up to 2400m when winning the Australian Derby.

The daughter of Mastercraftsman looks a really talented staying type and was really flying home in the New Zealand Derby when finishing half a length from Rangipo.

The concern for her is a wet track, but if we race on a Soft 5 or better, Valley Girl is my top pick.

If the track is worse than a Soft 5, Sofia Rosa gets the nod.

She defeated Valley Girl by 4.5 lengths on a Soft 7 over 2000m and she has racked up three wins and a placing from five starts on Soft ground.

She finished 2nd in the New Zealand Oaks (2400m) last start – on a Good track – and now gets the services of Hugh Bowman who is the best jockey in staying races for mine.

Suggested bets:
Soft 5 or better – Valley Girl to win ($9.00 Sportsbet)
Soft 6 or worse – Sofia Rosa to win ($10 Unibet)

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Australian Oaks Betting Tips – New Zealand fillies have the edge

Saturday’s Group 1 Australian Oaks (2400m) will see a tough group of 14 fillies battle around Royal Randwick for $1 million in prizemoney.

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