Australian Oaks Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the Australian Oaks? 
  • And how can history help us find the winner?

The Australian Oaks (2400m) brings together Australia and New Zealand's best staying fillies and is one of four Group 1 races on Day Two of The Championships at Royal Randwick. 

Last year, the Oaks was taken out by Unforgotten and the honour roll features some guns of the Australian turf including Surround, who won in 1977, while Leilani (1974) and Light Fingers (1965) are other former winners. 

Amazingly, the modern-day superstar of the turf, Winx, went down as a $2.75 fancy behind Gust Of Wind in 2015. She has since gone on to win every start since, including four Cox Plates (2040m), a Doncaster (1600m) and two Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). 

In taking a look at the trends of the Oaks since the year 2000, there are a few important things to factor in when it comes to picking a winner. 

The best lead up races have been the Vinery Stud Stakes (2000m) and the Adrian Knox Stakes (2000m) with a combined total of 14 out of the past 19 winners of the Oaks coming out of either of those two races. Interestingly, two of the last three winners, Bonneval and Sofia Rosa, came over from New Zealand after taking out the New Zealand Oaks (2400m). 

Gust Of Wind ran 4th in the Adrian Knox in 2015, while Rising Romance was 4th in the Vinery Stud Stakes in 2014 before winning the Oaks. Unforgotten finished runner-up before winning last year. 

15 of the past 19 winners have finished in the top four at their previous start and six were last start winners. 

This year, a number of the leading contenders come out of the Vinery Stud Stakes, including the early race favourite, Verry Elleegant, who has been posted as a $1.80 chance in early markets with sportsbet. The Chris Waller-trained galloper won that from Frankely Awesome ($5) and Aristia ($7). 

There are two New Zealand-trained contenders lining up in the race this year and they are Melda Mary and Clementina. 

Rising Romance (2014) and Daffodil (2009) are other Kiwi gallopers to have won the race since 2000. Rising Romance was trained by Donna Logan at the time and had her previous start in the Vinery Stud, while Daffodil was unplaced at Group 3 level in her homeland. 

The Oaks has not been a great race for favourite backers, with only Unforgotten, Bonneval, Streama, Serenade Rose and Wild Iris (2004) winning as favourites.

The average price of the winning horses has been $8.50 and some roughies to have won the event include Absolutely at $31 in 2011, while Rena's Lady scored at $21 in 2007. 

Verry Elleegant will have to do it the hard way after drawing barrier 12 but connections can take some confidence from the fact that 10 of the 19 winners since 2000 have drawn out in the second half of the field, including Sofia Rosa, who drew 11 of 14 in 2016. Rose Archway drew 12 of 12 in 2001, while Serenade Rose was the widest of nine runners in 2006.

The most successful barrier since 2000 has been 5, providing three winners, while No's 1, 3, 7, 8 and 9 have had two winners apiece. This year, Scarlet Dream, Autumn, Miss Moana, Aristia and Clementina have drawn those spots. 

Leading trainers in the race include Guy Walter and Gai Waterhouse with three winners apiece. Walter passed away in 2014 and had saddled up Streama, Wild Iris and Republic Lass in previous years.

Waterhouse enjoyed success in the race with Once Were Wild (2010), Sunday Joy (2003) and Coco Cabana (2000). This year, she takes the aptly named Autumn into the race. 

Successful hoops include Hugh Bowman, who has ridden five winners, while Glen Boss and Nash Rawiler have two apiece. Of that trio, Bowman is engaged to ride in the race this weekend and he is on the Frankely Awesome. Boss is on Imelda Mary. 

Selections according to trends.

Verry Elleegant is good enough to overcome what is a slightly questionable record for favourites in this race. 


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