Caulfield Cup Tips - Who does the historical trends point towards winning the Caulfield Cup?

  • Four-year-olds have a great record in the Caulfield Cup 
  • Turnbull Stakes the ideal form reference
  • Winners have been able to overcome wide barriers in recent times
Admire Rakti took out the Caulfield Cup in 2014

The $5 million Caulfield Cup (2400m) is one of the biggest events on the Australian racing calendar and the gruelling handicap race for stayers has a rich history. 

Famous winners include Tulloch, Tobin Bronze and Might And Power, whilst in recent years the event has attracted a number of overseas runners including Dunaden, who won in 2012, while the ill-fated Japanese runner, Admire Rakti claimed victory in 2014. 

Last year's winner was the $51 long-shot, Boom Time, and finding a winner for the Caulfield Cup is always a challenge due to the handicap conditions of the race, combined with the large field. We have had a look at the results of the race since the year 2000 and here are a few things to consider. 

The average winning price has been $13.50 in that time period and gallopers closest to that quote in early markets with sportsbet are Ace High and Homesman (both $11), while Night's Watch is at $15. 

Ahead of that trio are the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) trifecta horses in Youngstar and Kings Will Dream. Kings Will Dream finished 3rd behind Winx in the Turnbull and is at $5, while Youngstar (2nd to Winx) is at $6. The Cliffsofmoher is at $7, while , Best Solution ($16), The Taj Mahal ($17) and Chestnut Coat ($18) are other fancies. 

For those that are considering either Youngstar or Kings Will Dream, keep in mind that the Caulfield Cup has been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers. No horse won the Caulfield Cup at single figure odds between 2008 and 2014. Mongolian Khan ended that run of outs when he scored as a $5 popular elect in 2015, while the mare, Jameka, landed as a $4.25 fancy in 2016.  

In 2007, the Danny O'Brien-trained Master O'Reilly was installed favourite after a famous incident involving Maldivian, who was scratched as a raging top pick after playing up in the barriers. 

Lucia Valentina finished 3rd in 2014 as a popular elect, while Hawkspur finished 7th the year before. Glencadam Gold flopped in 2012 and December Draw finished last in 2011 as favourite after suffering an injury in the run.

It should be noted that favourites had a purple patch in the event in the early 2000s with four successive winners on the trot including memorable efforts from Northerly (2002) and Elvstroem (2004). 

All winners since 2000 have started at $17 or under except for Boom Time last year and the Godolphin winner All The Good, who scored at $41 in 2008. 

A positive for Youngstar and Kings Will Dream backers is that the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) has been one of the proven lead ups to the Caulfield Cup with eight winners coming out of the Flemington Group 1 since 2000 including five of the last eight. 

Jameka was 2nd behind Hartnell in 2016 before her triumph. Humidor ran 3rd to the mighty Winx last year and jumped as second favourite in this race before running 5th. Ventura Storm, Jon Snow and Mighty Boss are others to come out of the Turnbull this year. 

Since 2000, two Caulfield Cup winners have come out of the Caulfield Stakes (2000m) and they were Mongolian Khan and Mummify in 2003. The Cliffsofmoher (4th), Homesman (6th) and Nights Watch (8th) ran in that event this year. 

Last year, Boom Time ran 4th in the Herbert Power and that race has provided just two winners of the Caulfield Cup since 2000. 

The Cliffsofmoher is one of a number of 'international's' in the race this year. Despite a prominent presence in this race in the past, only three have won this millennium and they were Admire Rakti (2014), Dunaden (2012) and All The Good (2008). 

None of those had a prior run in Australia in their respective lead ups.  This year, Best Solution, Chestnut Coat, Sound Check, Duretto, Red Verdon and Sole Impact are those that have come to Australia having had their last start overseas. 

The most successful age category since 2000 has been the four-year-olds with nine winners, including Jameka and Mongolian Khan, while Descarado scored for Gai Waterhouse in 2010. 

This year there are three runners aged four including popular fancies, Ace High, Mighty Boss and Youngstar. 

Of that trio, Youngstar is a mare and in the lead up to this race there is traditionally alot a lot of talk about mares aged four having a good record in the Caulfield Cup. 

33 have started in the Caulfield Cup since 2000 and three have won. They were Jameka in 2016, Southern Speed in 2011 and Ethereal in 2001. Bonneval missed out last year as an $8 chance after some good lead up form. 

Six–year-olds also have a good record with six winners since 2000 including Boom Time and Fawkner in 2013. This year, Sound Check, Red Verdon, Ventura Storm, Gallic Chieftain and the second emergency, Jaameh, are horses in that age category. 

In what is good news for fans of horses that have drawn wide this year, gallopers have generally been able to come from a wide range of gates in the Caulfield Cup. 

Eight of the 18 winners have come from double figure barriers including Dunaden (18) and Descerado (15). Jameka won from 11 in 2016. Some of the notable gallopers to draw out this year include The Taj Mahal, Sole Impact and Sound Check. 

The most successful barrier to jump from has been barrier 3, providing three winners since 2000. The Cliffsofmoher jumps from that spot this year. No's 6, 9, 10, 11 and 13 have each provided two winners in that time period. . 

Going on the performances of runners since 2000, horses carrying either 52kg or 52.5kg have provided six winners, while three have been able to win with 58kg. The average weight carried to victory is 54kg. 

Since 2000, only David Hayes has won the race twice as a trainer. He was successful in 2006 with Tawqeet and joined his son Ben as well as Tom Dabernig last year to win with Boom Time. That trio have Ventura Storm and Jaameh this year. Hayes also won in 1993 with Fraar. 

The most successful jockey's in the event since 2000 have been Craig Williams and Nick Hall. Williams won aboard Southern Speed and Dunaden. Hall partnered Fawkner and Jameka. Williams has the plum ride on Kings Will Dream this year. It should be noted that Damien Oliver has four wins in the event, which were all in the 90s. Ollie takes the ride on Ace High. 

Selections based on trends: 

As always the Caulfield Cup is a wide open affair but the Turnbull Stakes gives us a great guide. Kings Will Dream and Youngstar should both be prominent, while Ventura Storm is one to consider at odds. 

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*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

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