Caulfield Guineas Tips - Analysing the history of the Group 1 Caulfield Guineas

  • How does history help us find the winner of the Caulfield Guineas?
All Too Hard defeated Pierro in a classic Caulfield Guineas in 2012

The Caulfield Guineas (1600m) is arguably the best race in Australia each year for the three-year-olds and has a star-studded honour roll that features the likes of All Too Hard, Weekend Hussler and Lonhro. 

The 2012 edition was one of the most memorable after All Too Hard upset the heavily fancied Pierro and the 1999 match race between Redoute’s Choice and Testa Rossa was another epic. 

Last year, it was The Autumn Sun that won in dominant fashion for the Chris Waller and James McDonald trainer/jockey combination. 

This year, Dalasan is an easing favourite in early betting markets after faring poorly at the barrier draw. The $3.20 chance with BetEasy drew 18 but may come into barrier 16 after the removal of emergencies and/or scratchings. 

Behind Dalasan in early markets are the last start Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m) winner, Alligator Blood, at $6, while Kubrick is at $6.50. Super Seth at $11 and Subedar at $13 are other leading contenders. 

So will it Dalasan that salutes despite the wide draw or can another rival get the job done? If we use the results of the Caulfield Guineas since the year 2000 as a guide, there are a few things to keep in mind that may be able to help answer those questions and ultimately find a winner. 

Despite the antics of Mighty Boss in 2017, who scored at cricket score odds of $101, the race has generally been an ok one for favourite backers. Eight of 19 popular elects have won the race since 2000, while another five started at single figure odds. 

While not quite in the league of Mighty Boss at $101, there have two other winners since 2000 that have landed at a big price and they were Econsul at $41 in 2004 and In Top Swing at $21 in 2003. 

In 2016, Divine Prophet started at $7, while the race favourite, Impending, ran 4th. In 2015, Press Statement started as a $2.50 popular elect, while in 2014, the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained Shooting To Win gunned down the $4 favourite Rich Enuff. 

In 2013, the fellow Snowden galloper, Long John, won the event at $3.75 while Helmet won at $2.25 in 2011. Pierro started at $1.20 when he was rolled by All Too Hard ($12) in 2012. The average starting price of the winners since 2000 has been $13 but that number drops to $8 if we remove Mighty Boss from the equation. 

The Caulfield Guineas usually brings together the finest three-year-old gallopers from both Melbourne and Sydney and as always, there is conjecture about which state has the best lead up form. 

Seven of the past eight winners have hailed from Sydney with four of the past six having had their final lead up run at Rosehill in the Stan Fox Stakes (1500m). The Autumn Sun placed 3rd in that race last year and then had a dazzling win in the Golden Rose (1400m). 

In total, 12 of the 19 winners since 2000 have come from NSW. Of the contenders this year, Kubrick has done his recent racing in Sydney and was 5th in the Golden Rose. Subedar hails from Sydney and drops down from the 1800m of the Gloaming Stakes. He was runner-up in that race.  

Of the 19 winners since 2000, 11 have come through lead up races in Melbourne including seven from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m)

Three gallopers have completed the double, while four have placed in the Prelude before winning the Guineas. The year, Alligator Blood defeated Dalasun in the Prelude. 

Two winners have come out of the Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley. Showtime won that lead up in 2017, while the eventual Caulfield Guineas winner, Mighty Boss, ran 4th. This year, The Holy One claimed the Valley race from Vegas Knight and Conqueror. 

The Caulfield Guineas is seen as a future stallion-making race with top sires including Lonhro (2001) and Redoute’s Choice (1999) to have won. Since 2000, 15 colts have won the Guineas while only four geldings have been successful. 

This year, 12 of the 19 gallopers are colts and connections will be hoping they make a name for themselves this Saturday and later on at stud. 

Horses that have drawn within barriers 1-8 appear to have an advantage in the Caulfield Guineas as these barriers have accounted for 14 of the 19 winners since 2000. 

Four of the past 10 winners have jumped from barrier 1 and they are Divine Prophet (2016), Long John (2013), Anacheeva (2010) and Starspangledbanner (2009). This year, Creator has drawn the inside, while The Holy One (4) and Super Seth (5) have also fared well. Alligator Blood has drawn 13, while Kubrick is in 17. 

The most successful trainers since the year 2000 have been Peter Snowden and John Hawkes with three winners apiece. Chris Waller has won the race twice. Waller has Kubrick this year, while the Snowdens have Creator. 

James McDonald, Steven King, Dwayne Dunn, Kerrin McEvoy and Luke Nolen have all enjoyed two wins in the Guineas since 2000. McDonald rides Kubrick this year, while Dunn is on Soul Patch. McEvoy rides Eric The Eel and Nolen will be hoping the emergency, Exeter, can gain a run. 

Selection based on trends

The barrier draw has certainly scattered the market a bit but on trends it may pay to look for one in single figures. Sydney horses have a great record in this race so Kubrick looks to be the one. 

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