Caulfield Stakes Tips 2019 - Homesman to defy the foreign raiders

  • The Caulfield Stakes shapes as a pivotal race as we head towards the business end of the spring carnival. 
  • Avilius and Homesman head the market
Homesman (PA Images)

One of the highlights on Caulfield Guineas Day is the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m.

This year's edition features Avilius, who has an unbelievable record since coming over to Australia last year, as well as Homesman, who is a genuine gun at Caulfield, despite his last start defeat to the veteran Black Heart Bart in the Underwood Stakes (1800m). 

Then there are the foreigners, fresh from the trip overseas. Danceteria and Dream Castle have some serious international form and the latter is trained by Speed Bin Suroor, who claimed this race with Benbatl in 2018. That horse then went on to finish a gallant runner-up to Winx in the Cox Plate (2040m). 

Benbatl became the first foreigner to win this race when he saluted last year. In 2017, Johannes Vermeer finished a narrow runner up behind Gailo Chop at what was his first start in Australia. Prior to 2017 international runners were rarely seen in the Caulfield Stakes 

Danceteria and Dream Castle are prominent in the early betting markets with sportsbet at $8 and $13 respectively. However, I am keen to watch and see what happens with the new arrivals and stick with either Avilius or Homesman. 

Avilius heads the betting at $2.30, while Homesman is at $4. Others in contention include Gailo Chop at $11, while Black Heart Bart and Gatting are both at $18. 

Avilius has had 14 starts in Australia for nine wins. In distances from 1800m and above he has won seven of those. He finished down the track in the Cox Plate last year when that run was a tune up for the Melbourne Cup (3200m) before he was flattened in the race that stops the nation. 

His only other 'failure' at the 2000m came in this year's Australian Cup (2000m) when running 5th to Harlem. A lacerated eye may have been the cause of his mystery performance in that race. But all of his other runs around the 2000m distance range have been dominant. 

Then there is Homesman. The Lloyd Williams owned galloper went out hard in this race last year before fading to run 7th. He then just missed out in a memorable edition of the Caulfield Cup (2400m), engaging in a stirring duel with Best Solution. 

This campaign he was way too good for them in the Feehan Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley before having excuses behind Black Heart Bart last time in the Underwood (1800m) when posted wide the entire trip. 

I suspect Homesman will be a bit sharper than what he was last year when he was set for the Caulfield Cup. This year it is the Cox Plate (2040m) that is on the agenda for the six-year-old, who has drawn much better this time around in his quest to claim his second Group 1 since arriving from the U.K last year. 

The key to this race will be the pace that is set early on and it is Gailo Chop that looks to be the early leader. Ben Melham will look to give Homesman a soft time of it in the early to middle stages and make it a bit of a sit-sprint from the 800m mark. 

If this pays off, the son of War Front will be hard to beat. But if they do go at more than a moderate clip then Avilius looms as the one. 

One thing is for sure is that the Caulfield Stakes has generally been a great race for those in single figure odds with with 16 of the past 19 winners in that price bracket. 

In the same time period the Underwood Stakes has provided nine winners of the Caulfield Stakes, auguring well for the likes of Homesman. 

I will be taking Avilius and Homesman in a 'skinny' leg of the quaddie. If I had to choose one for the win it would be a slight leaning towards Homesman. 

Upcoming Events

Change State

*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

News Stream

Caulfield Stakes - news, tips and betting advice

Share this with your friends

Your comments:

Caulfield Stakes Tips 2019 - Homesman to defy the foreign raiders

One of the highlights on Caulfield Guineas Day is the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes over 2000m.

Read more »

You have unread messages

You have unread messages