Caulfield Stakes Tips - Who does history point towards winning the Group 1?

  • Favourites have fared well in this race
  • Champions feature on the honour roll
Lonhro defeated Sunline in an epic version of the Caulfield Stakes in 2002

The Caulfield Stakes (2000m) is always one of the highlights of Caulfield Guineas day and is one of four Group 1 races at the venue on Saturday October 12. 

The $1 million affair has been won by some champion gallopers in the past including Winx in 2016 as well as So You Think (2010), Lonhro (2002/2003) and Might And Power (1998). Others to feature on the honour roll include Kingston Town (1981/1982) and Gunsynd (1972). 

This year's field has attracted plenty of quality and an interesting feature is the presence of a number of international raiders including Danceteria, Dream Castle, Cape Of Good Hope and Suzuka Devious. 

Danceteria and Dream Castle are prominent in the early betting markets with BetEasy at $8 and $13 respectively. Avilius heads the betting at $2.30, while Homesman is at $4. Gailo Chop in at $11, while Black Heart Bart and Gatting are both at $18. 

In taking a look at the trends of the race since the year 2000, it has generally been a good one for favourite backers with a host of big names winning at short prices, including Winx, Atlantic Jewel (2013), So You Think, Whobegotyou (2009) and Northerly (2001). 

Five winners have started at odds on and 17 of the 19 winners since 2000 have been below double figure odds, auguring well for the likes of Avilius, Homesman and Danceteria. 

For those that are keen on one of the foreign contenders, Benbatl became the first foreigner to win this race when he saluted in 2018. In 2017, Johannes Vermeer finished a narrow runner up behind Gailo Chop at what was his first start in Australia. Prior to 2017 international runners were rarely seen in the Caulfield Stakes 

It should be noted that Criterion won the race in 2015 having had his previous start overseas but was mainly raced in Australia prior to that, winning the Australian Derby (2400m) among others. 

The Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield is the tried and true lead up to the Caulfield Stakes and has provided nine winners since 2000, including Atlantic Jewel in 2013 and Ocean Park in 2012. 

Three horses have achieved the Underwood/Caulfield Stakes double since 2000 and they were Ocean Park, So You Think and Northerly. Three were placed and a further two were unplaced in the Underwood before achieving success over the extra 200m. 

This year, Black Heart Bart was a shock winner of that lead up at $101 ahead of Homesman and Gailo Chop. The trifecta horses out of that might be the ones to consider based on that trend. 

Avilius was a last start winner of the George Main Stakes (1600m). Winx claimed that race before she won the Caulfield Stakes in 2016, as did Lonhro in 2002 and 2003. In 2002 he prevailed after a stirring battle with Sunline in the straight. 

A feature of this years field is that nine of the 11 runners are aged six or over. However, it is the five-year-olds have had plenty of success over the years, winning 10 of the 19 versions of the race since 2000, while four-year-olds have claimed victory on four occasions. Danceteria is the sole five-year-old this year, while Cape Of Good Hope is four. 

Drawing a good barrier has never really been a factor in this race but Dream Castle and Gatting will be out to become the first to win from a double digit gate this millennium. 

They have drawn 10 and 11 respectively. 16 of the 19 winners have drawn between barriers 1 to 6 but small fields have generally been the order of the day so that stat is a tad misleading. 

Of the trainers with a runner on Saturday, Saeed Bin Suroor and the Hayes/Dabernig team have enjoyed success in this race. Bin Suroor claimed victory last year with Benbatl and has Dream Castle this year. 

The Hayes/Dabernig team have the 2018 Australian Cup winner, Harlem, in the race as well as Cape Of Good Hope. Robert Hickmott won the race for owner Lloyd Williams in 2014 with Fawkner. The Williams colours will be worn by Homesman this year with Liam Howley now at the helm of Macedon Lodge. 

Darren Beadman partnered Lonhro to victory in his wins at Caulfield and is one of five jockeys that have tasted success in the race on more than one occasion since 2000. The other four are Damien Oliver, Glen Boss, Michael Rodd and Nash Rawiler. Of that group, Oliver rides Gailo Chop this year. 

Selection according to trends:

Look for a horse that has come out of the Underwood and is paying single figure odds. That leaves us with Homesman. 

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Caulfield Stakes Tips - Who does history point towards winning the Group 1?

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