Doomben 10,000 Tips - $21 chance can spoil the favourites party

  • Is it a race in two between Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls? 
  • Easy Eddie can surprise at big odds
Easy Eddie

The market suggests a match race between Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1200m) at Doomben but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset result. 

The speed map look simple enough. Nature Strip should burn across from barrier 11 and there isn’t a horse in this race with the speed to match him in the first 400m. Dollar For Dollar is likely to follow him across from barrier 12 and sit outside the leader, with Manuel, I’m A Rippa and Easy Eddie getting spots just behind those two.

Tactical Advantage, The Bostonian and White Moss map as the next three with Man Booker cast three-wide the trip. Outback Barbie is likely to get buried back on the fence with Havasay on its outside. Champagne Cuddles and Osborne Bulls map as the last two in running. 

I thought Nature Strip opened around the right price at $2.70 but the early money has been substantial, with one bet of $200,000 being placed and his price has been smashed into $1.90 at most places. I’m sure he will drift back out to the red but It’s hard to see him as value at that price with so many unknowns. 

The obvious question is, will Nature Strip run 1200m? If he runs the trip he wins. He was pressured two starts ago in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and my theory is, he struggles to breathe probably when horses are pressuring him throughout the middle of the race. He was able to stride out on his own last start in the Group 1 The Galaxy (1100m) and we saw he hung on against Pierata who franked that form. 

Since that run, he has had more time in the Sydney stable of Chris Waller which I deem as important and if he is ever going to run 1200m at this stage of his career it will be at Doomben. Barrier 11 is perfect and the soft track helps. 

Osborne Bulls clearly looks the main danger. He has finished second in all four Group Ones this preparation and has been gross unders on three of those four occasions (in my opinion). He is a horse who needs everything to go his way and has been overbet due to his ‘flashing light runs’. 

He probably wasn’t suited inside runners last start in the All Aged Stakes (1400m), running the second-fastest 800m-600m of the race, second-fastest 600m-400m, fastest 400m-200m and only the fourth-fastest last 200m of the race. 

He maps nicely enough from barrier four but the key will be getting him to the outside. The tight turning Doomben track probably doesn’t suit him but this does look his best chance to win a Group One this preparation.

The horse I’ve found is the four-year-old gelding, Easy Eddie. He ran a blinder two starts ago, running third behind Nature Strip and Pierata in the Group One Galaxy (1000m) and ran a really solid G1 figure of 14.3 lengths above benchmark, which is the best figure in the race outside of Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls. 

He sat three-wide no cover last start and still looked like was going to figure in the finish but just faded at the 200m. He still battled through the line ok and will love any cut out of the track. He did start $8.50 in a Group Three race last start and that is scary, as I would usually put the pen through a horse with that profile but I liked the recent trial and the three weeks between runs. 

Do I think Easy Eddie is the best winning chance in the race? No of course not. I’ll be completely transparent and share my prices which I usually keep very close to my chest. 

I have Nature Strip a $2.60 favourite from Osborne Bulls at $3.20. I then have Champagne Cuddles on the third line of betting at $9.50 and Easy Eddie at $11.00 on the fourth line of betting. 

It’s a tricky race and one of Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls should win this race most of the time but I’m happy to have a throw at the stumps with Easy Eddie at a big price. 

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Doomben 10,000 Tips - $21 chance can spoil the favourites party

The market suggests a match race between Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls in Saturday’s Group 1 Doomben 10,000 (1200m) at Doomben but I wouldn’t be surprised to see an upset result.

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