Doomben Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Hollindale Stakes the tried and true lead up form
  • Barriers 1-5 are crucial
  • Favourites tend to fare well in this race
King Keitel won the Doomben Cup back in 2001

The Doomben Cup (2000m) is the premier Group 1 race in Brisbane for the middle distance gallopers and has been won in the past by the likes of Might And Power, who was a famous winner in 1998, while Bernborough dazzled fans back in 1946 when he won. We also cannot forget the mighty Rough Habit, who was a three-time winner back in the early 1990s. 

Last year, the Doomben Cup was taken out by Comin' Through, while in 2017 it was Sense Of Occasion. In searching for a winner this year, there are a number of factors to take into account, given that the race can attract a number of quality gallopers with different formlines.

In looking at the trends of the Doomben Cup since the year 2000, the best guide has always been the Hollindale Stakes (1800m), which is run at the Gold Coast in the lead up. 

11 of the past 19 winners have had their last runs in the Hollindale and five of those have completed the double including Streama in 2014 and the 2010 winner, Metal Bender. Both Comin' Through and Sense Of Occasion ran 6th in the Hollindale in recent year's. 

This year, Life Less Ordinary took out that race from Mr Sea Wolf and Hallelejuah Boy. Youngstar ran 5th, while Tally finished in 6th position and will be out to emulate the past two winners that rose from that spot to win the Doomben Cup. 

For fans of Youngstar, who has been posted as a $4.80 equal favourite in early betting markets with ladbrokes, it is worth noting that 14 of the 19 winners since the year 2000 have started at single figure odds, including five that started as favourites. Pornichet was a $3.50 popular elect in 2015, while in 2014, Streama also saluted as the top pick at $4.25. 

The average price of the winning horses has been $7.50 and the only real blowout to occur since 2000 was when Cinque Cento won at the odds of $21 in 2007. 

Behind Youngstar in this year's market is the three-year-old, Gem Song, while Shillelagh ($7), Life Less Ordinary ($7.50) and Archedemus ($8) are others in single figures. 

Shillelagh has drawn barrier 2 this weekend and it is worth noting that gallopers drawn from barriers 1 to 6 have won 11 of the 19 Doomben Cups since 2000, including Our Ivanhowe, who drew Barrier 6. The last two winners have slightly bucked that trends by drawing the outside gates. 

Other gallopers to have drawn towards the inside this year are the $11 chance, Mister Sea Wolf as well as Red Alto and On The Rocks. Archedemus and Luvaluva occupy the two outside barriers. 

There are five mares in the race this year and they are Shillelagh, Kenedna, Youngstar, Savvy Coup and Luvaluva. The girls have won the Doomben Cup on just two occasions since 2000 but have been under-represented in comparison to the boys. 

Horses in the four to six-year-old bracket have accounted for 15 of the 19 winners since 2000. Of the favoured runners this year, Youngstar is four, while Archedemus is five, Shillelagh is six and Life Less Ordinary is seven. Gem Song will be out to become the first three-year-old to win the race since Akhenation in 2000. 

Successful trainers include Chris Waller, Lee Freedman, Danny Morton and Guy Walter. Of that quartet, Waller has had three winners, while the others have had two since 2000. Waller has enjoyed success with Comin' Through, Beaten Up and Metal Bender.

The leading Sydney trainer has Life Less Ordinary, Mister Sea Wolf, Shillelagh, Youngster and Savvy Coup in this year's edition of the race. 

Of the jockeys, Blake Shinn, Kerrin McEvoy and Shane Scriven have won the race twice since 2000. Shinn is on Gem Song, while McEvoy is on Youngstar. 

Selection according to trends. 

This has been a good race for horses under $10 and the Hollindale Stakes form looks to be the go. Youngstar can improve as per previous winners and her trainer and jockey have enjoyed success in this race. 

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