Golden Slipper Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Fillies have had the wood over the colts and geldings since 2000
  • Gai Waterhouse has a great record in the Golden Slipper 
  • Todman Stakes or the Reisling Stakes the ideal lead up race
The Golden Slipper has a rich history

The Golden Slipper is always one of the major highlights of racing in Sydney during the autumn and has been won by some champion gallopers in the past, including Todman, Vain and Manikato. 

Recent winners include Pierro (2012) and Sepoy (2011), while Estijaab took out the race in 2018. 

This year, Cosmic Force is favourite in early markets with sportsbet and if we analyse the recent trends of the race since the year 2000 we see that it has been a mixed one for favoured runners. 

Written By, Houtzen and Extreme Choice have all gone down as the popular elect in recent years, however the past nine winners have all scored at single figure odds. 

They include last year's winner, Estijaab, who jumped as an $8.50 pop, while She Will Reign and Capitalist both scored at $8. 

Vancouver ($2.50 in 2015), Overreach ($2.75 in 2013) and Sepoy ($2.75 in 2011) are favourites that have won in the past 10 years.  

The highest priced winner of the $3.5 million scamper since 2000 is Phelan Ready, who scored as a $26 pop in 2009. 

The Slipper was once a graveyard for favourites until Sebring broke through at $6 in 2008. That performance ended a 29-year run of outs for favourites in the race. The average price of the winning horses since the year 2000 has been $8.65. 

Other contenders at single figure odds with sportsbet this year include the Godolphin pair of Tenley ($5.50) and Microphone ($7). Yes Yes Yes is at $7.50, while Lyre ($11) heads the rest. 

For fans of Lyre, keep in mind that no horse this millennium has won the Blue Diamond then the Golden Slipper in successive races. Contenders usually have another run in between. 

Crystal Lily, Sepoy and Miss Finland are among a number of Golden Slipper winners to have raced in the Blue Diamond then had their final lead up race in Sydney. 

Sepoy completed the double in 2011 but came off a loss in the Todman Stakes (1200m) before claiming victory in the Slipper. 

The ideal lead up form has been for horses to have their last start in either the Todman Stakes (1200m) for the colts and geldings or the Reisling Stakes (1200m) for the fillies. 

In the last 10 years, five winners of the Golden Slipper have come out of the Todman, while seven of the past 19 winners have come out of the Reisling, including the last two in Estijaab and She Will Reign. 

This year, Yes Yes Yes claimed the Todman Stakes. The Reisling was won by Tenley, while Exhilarates finished runner-up. Cosmic Force won the Pago Pago Stakes (1200m), the same lead up as Stratum in 2005, while Kiamichi claimed the Magic Night Stakes (1200m). The past 11 Golden Slipper winners have finished in the top two at their previous start. 

A feature of this year's field is that there are 10 fillies in the field of 16. Yes Yes Yes, Microphone, Time To Reign, Free Of Debt, Cosmic Force and Dubious are the colts this year. The three emergencies are also colts. 

Since the year 2000, fillies have had the upper hand in the Slipper, winning the race on 11 occasions, while six winners have been colts and two have been geldings. The leading fillies include Tenley, Lyre and Loving Gaby.  

Barriers can play a decisive role in determining the outcome of a Golden Slipper but it is interesting to note that four of the past five have won from double digit draws. With luck in running, the likes of Kiamichi, Exhilarates and Yes Yes Yes can feature. That trio are in the three widest gates.

The most successful gate to jump from since the year 2000 has been barrier 1 with four winners. This year, Microphone has drawn the pole. 

Of the trainers, James Cummings has six runners including the first emergency (Bivouac), while the Peter and Paul Snowden combination have four including Rome, who is the second emergency. The Snowden's have won two Golden Slipper's and have Cosmic Force, Anaheed and Catch Me. 

The rising star, Cummings, is yet to win the Slipper but has a strong hand with Microphone, Tenley, Pin Sec, Kiamichi and Exhilarates. 

Rosehill has generally not been a happy hunting ground for the Victorian trainers. While the Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra stable won the event in 2010 with Crystal Lily, Mick Price has since missed out with the race favourite in 2016, Extreme Choice, as well as in 2012, when his star filly, Samaready, went down as favourite. 

Bel Esprit (2002) and Alinghi (2004) are among other big-name Victorians to have also gone down in the Golden Slipper since 2000. Anthony Freedman is based in Victoria and takes Lyre into the race. Ciaron Maher and David Eustace have Loving Gaby and Dubious. 

Successful jockeys in the race since 2000 include Lenny Beasley and Tommy Berry with two winners apiece. This year, Berry steers Pin Sec. 

Selection based on trends

Look for one that has finished in the top two in their last two runs. On trends, it is hard to split Yes Yes Yes and Tenley. The latter just gets the nod as the fillies have had an edge over the journey. 


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