JJ Atkins Betting Tips - How does history help find the winner?

Juanmo and Kerrin McEvoy winning the race in 2001.

The J.J.Atkins Plate (1600m) is the leading two-year-old race in Brisbane and was won last year by The Autumn Sun, while Capital Gain and Sacred Elixir are other recent winners. Chris Waller’s Press Statement claimed victory in 2015. 

Lovely Jubly, who is the dam of Chautauqua, saluted back in 2002 when it was known as the T.J.Smith Stakes, while the great Mahogany was a winner back in 1993. 

The $600,000 affair is one of three Group 1 races for the day at Eagle Farm on the weekend. Here is our guide to finding a winner by looking at the history of the race since the year 2000. 

The JJ Atkins has generally been taken out by horses in the first few lines of betting and the average price of the winners has been $7 since 2000. 

Only four winning gallopers have paid more than $8 in that time period and they were the 2017 winner, Capital Gain, who won as a $21 shot, while Linky Dink scored as a $26 chance in 2009. Rockdale (2008) and Darci Brahma (2005) saluted at $11 and $13 respectively. 

Four favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Autumn Sun and Sacred Elixir at $4 in 2016. Press Statement was a $6.50 chance in 2015 when he won. 

In early markets with ladbrokes this year, Accession is a $4.50 favourite ahead of Strasbourg, Prince Fawaz and Reloaded. The latter trio are all at $5. Kubrick is next in the market at $9.50, while Czarson and Shadow Hero are $13 and head the rest. 

The ideal form reference for the J.J.Atkins has always been the Queensland Sires Produce (1400m), which was run on May 25 this year. 12 of the past 17 winners have come out of the Sires with four of those claiming the double. 

This year, Strasbourg claimed that lead up in narrow fashion from Accession and Garibaldi, while Czarson was 4th. 

Prince Fawaz, Reloaded and Kubrick come off runs in Sydney and will be out to emulate the likes of The Autumn Sun and Press Statement, who won the Atkins after runs in the NSW capital. 

Chris Waller has won the mile race for the juveniles on three occasions since 2010 with Pressday another winner alongside Press Statement and The Autumn Sun. Waller takes a strong hand into the race and has Accession, Kubrick and Reloaded. 

Gai Waterhouse was successful in 2013 and 2014 and combines with Adrian Bott this year. That duet have Czarson. The Snowden yard were successful in 2011 with Benfica and have Strasbourg this year. 

NSW based trainers have owned the event in recent times and have claimed 11 of the past 15 versions of the race.

Of the hoops, Kerrin McEvoy is a two time winner of the race and rides Prince Fawaz this year. Tommy Berry rode Almalad in 2013 and steers Starsbourg. 

The Verdict

The Queensland Sires Produce is the proven long term trend and it is Accession that ticks plenty of boxes. 


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JJ Atkins Betting Tips - How does history help find the winner?

The Group 1 JJ Atkins Stakes (1600m) gives a chance for some of the late-maturing two-year-olds to claim Group 1 success.

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