Melbourne Cup Tips - Who will win the 2019 Melbourne Cup?

Vow And Declare (PA Images)

The international runners have dominated the Melbourne Cup (3200m) in recent times, but in 2019, on the first Tuesday in November, a local can stand up and repel the overseas raiders. 

I think the Danny O’Brien-trained Vow And Declare is a genuine stayer, and his figures suggest he’ll do more than just make up the numbers. 

The four-year-old son of Declaration Of War broke his maiden at start number four where he outstayed Periscope to win over 2381m at Warrnambool. 

Following his maiden win, he was thrown in the deep end at Flemington where he contested the Listed TCL TV Stakes (1800m), and despite going around at double-figure odds, he scored an impressive win over Junipal. 



In both wins, he was clearly headed by the eventual runner-up, but in both cases, he fought back to gain the upper hand and that’s a great attribute for any racehorse to have. 

O’Brien sent the promising youngster for a break and he returned with a brilliant 3rd placing at Flemington over 1710m where he just missed behind two horses that had a weight and fitness advantage. 

His next two run over 1800m and 2200m were fair, but he really improved when getting out to 2400m in the QLD Derby where he was runner-up to Mr Quickie. 

Mr Quickie put him in a pocket early in the straight and clearly outsprinted Vow And Declare, but the youngster showed he was the superior stayer and was closing hard late to whittle down the margin to 0.8 of a length. 

He then won the Tatt’s Cup (3000m) defeating Big Duke by 3.25 lengths where he clocked a quicker final 600m, 400m and 200m than he did in the Derby, and while both races were at Eagle Farm, the Cup was on a slightly inferior surface which should have yielded slower times. 

Admittedly, he carried 6kg less than Big Duke who has strong staying form having finished 3rd to Polarisation in the 2017 Sydney Cup and then 4th behind Rekindling in the 2017 Melbourne Cup.

However, he was a three-year-old taking on a seasoned six-year-old stayer, and that performance was simply outstanding.

His sectionals over 3000m are comparable to Cross Counter’s sectionals in last year’s Melbourne Cup, and that shows Vow And Declare is a serious stayer. 

First-up this campaign he put in an eye-catching run in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) and was only 1.6 lengths from Kings Will Dream.

He then went to the Caulfield Cup (2400m) second-up and was beaten a length by Mer De Glace, and while that galloper put two lengths on him early in the straight, Vow And Declare was again coming back near the line to narrow the margin. 

I think this horse is clearly looking for 3200m, and when most are feeling the pinch in the final furlong on that first Tuesday in November, Vow And Declare will be surging with just 52kg on his back. 


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Melbourne Cup Tips - Who will win the 2019 Melbourne Cup?

The international runners have dominated the Melbourne Cup (3200m) in recent times, but in 2019, on the first Tuesday in November, a local can stand up and repel the overseas raiders.

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