Memsie Stakes Tips - Back our selection to make it seven in a row

Jockey Declan Bates rides Begood Toya Mother to victory in the Ladbrokes Odds Boost Handicap during the Caulfield Race Day at Caulfield Racecourse (PA Images)

The 13 runners in Saturday’s Memsie Stakes (1400m) come through five different form races, as well as two runners being first-up from a spell. 

And while that may seem like a daunting task to try and assess each form race and in turn each runner, it’s actually quite a straightforward scenario. 

Firstly, with no rain predicted for Caulfield on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, we should be racing on a Good track. 

Secondly, here is a list of all runners, their lead-up races and finishing position. 

Missile Stakes (1200m) – Alizee (1st)
Aurie’s Star (1200m) - So Si Bon (1st), Sesar (3rd), Material Man (6th), Oohood (7th)
PB Lawrence Stakes (1400m) - Cliff’s Edge (2nd), Hartnell (3rd)
Spring Stakes (1200m) - Scales Of Justice (2nd), Despatch (4th)
Regal Roller Stakes (1200m) - Begood Toya Mother (1st), Fundamentalist (3rd)
First-up – Black Heart Bart, Humidor

In the past 20 years, Dissident is the only horse to break 1:23.00 when winning in 1:22.7 – and the average winning time in that period is around 1:23.50 so we need to find a horse than can at least run that sort of time at Caulfield.

Alizee (1:22.72) and Hartnell (1:22.92) ran quick time at the track and trip when second-up last campaign as they finished 1st and 3rd in the Futurity Stakes, so they obviously go into calculations. 

Humidor won this race last year in 1:23.29 and Black Heart Bart was a length away running 1:23.64, and Black Heart Bart also won this race in 2016 running 1:23.90.

Material Man finished two lengths from Alizee when second-up in the Futurity Stakes, and he comes into Saturday’s event second-up having finished 5.5 lengths from So Si Bon in the Aurie’s Star on a Heavy track which doesn’t suit him. 

Scales Of Justice’s only run at the track and trip was in a lightning quick Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes where he ran 1:22.85 as he finished 2.7 lengths from Santa Ana Lane who won in 1:22.28.

Cliff’s Edge won at the track and trip in 1:23.02 last campaign, while So Si Bon has had five attempts for two 3rd placings in slower time.

Despatch, Oohood and Fundamentalist are yet to race at the track and trip, but Oohood does have three 2nd placing and a 3rd from four runs at the track.

The formguide says Begood Toya Mother has won at the track and trip, but it was over 1440m where he ran 1:25.92 on a Soft 6.

If we adjust that time to reflect a 1400m run, it’s approximately 1:23.60 which is extremely quick for a Soft 6. 

He won at Sandown in 1:22.89 and at Flemington in 1:22.84, so we know this is a horse than can run quick time from the front. 

He resumed to win the Regal Roller beating Haunted, and the further they went, the further he would have won by. 

Trainer Daniel Bowman has really put his faith in jockey Declan Bates who has ridden this horse to victory in his last six starts and will be looking to bag his first Group 1 win. 

Bates will have to spear across from the outside gate which isn’t ideal, but I can’t see anything trying to kick up and hold him out while Cliff’s Edge and Fundamentalist land behind the speed. 

Hartnell ran stronger final sectionals than Cliff’s Edge last start and was also behind in fitness being first-up, so I’m banking on Hartnell to turn the tables. 

Hugh Bowman staying in Sydney and not travelling to Melbourne to ride Alizee in a $1 million Group 1 is and interesting one, and maybe Bowman thinks Bivouac is the better chance throughout the spring, and he’s keen to stick with him and forgo this ride. 

Alizee jumps from the same gate (11) that she won the Futurity from, but I’m not sure she’s going quite as well and I’m willing to risk her. 

I had something on So Si Bon last start due to the Heavy track, but I’m not keen to place much emphasis on that form. 

I didn’t really like the recent barrier trial from Humidor despite him winning, and Widgee Turf was clearly travelling better than Humidor. 

Black Heart Bart impressed in his trial, and that’s more for the fact he won on a Heavy 10 and is a notorious Good track specialist. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him run a big race. 

Scales Of Justice may have looked a bit disappointing last start when beaten by Dalasan after sitting three deep without cover throughout, but the race rated really high and he’s looing for 1400m now. 

The way I’ve assessed the race is: Begood Toya Mother will lead all the way and prove too good, while Hartnell and Scales Of Justice battle it out for 2nd and 3rd. 

Hartnell worries me most so I’ll have a saver on him at $7

Alizee, Black Heart Bart, Material Man and Fundamentalist are next best in what will be a cracking return to Group 1 racing for Victoria. 

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Memsie Stakes Tips - Back our selection to make it seven in a row

The 13 runners in Saturday’s Memsie Stakes (1400m) come through five different form races, as well as two runners being first-up from a spell.

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