Memsie Stakes Tips - How can history help find the winner?

  • Horses racing first up have a great record in this race
  • Sunline, So You Think and Makybe Diva just some of the names to take out the Memsie
So You Think winning the 2010 Memsie Stakes

The Memsie Stakes (1400m) was elevated to Group 1 status in 2013 and its honour roll reads like a who’s who of Australian racing. 

So You Think (2010), Makybe Diva (2005) and Sunline (2000-2001) are among some of the big names to have taken out the event since the year 2000, while Atlantic Jewel (2013), Weekend Hussler (2008), Miss Finland (2007) and El Segundo (2006) are among other stars to have claimed the now $1 million affair. 

The Caulfield 1400m feature is the first Melbourne Group 1 of the racing season and has generally been an excellent one for punters, despite Humidor winning as a $21 pop last year. Vega Magic claimed the race as a $2.30 favourite in 2017, while Black Heart Bart saluted won at $2 the year prior. 

Using the results since 2000 as a guide, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner. The average starting price this millennium has been just $5.50. Favourites have tended to dominate as 12 of the 19 popular elects have scored. Only two horses have scored above $10. 

Remarkably, Humidor is the biggest priced winner in the time period since 2000, while in 2014, Dissident won on a Heavy track at $11. Prior to that it was the champion mare Makybe Diva  paid $7.50 in 2005 in what was her only victory below 2000m. So You Think also saluted at generous odds of $6 in 2010. 

The race has been won by odds on fancies in 2000-2001 (Sunline) and in 2008 by Weekend Hussler. The glamour mare, Atlantic Jewel, won in 2013 at $2.25. 

This year, Alizee has been posted as a $3.30 favourite in early betting markets with sportsbet ahead of Scales Of Justice at $5 and Hartnell at $7. Cliff's Edge is at $9, while Begood Toya Mother is at $9.50. Humidor will be going for back-to-back wins and heads the rest at $16.  

Alizee claimed the Missile Stakes (1200m) this year and has had three weeks in between runs. A number of others fought out the recent Lawrence Stakes (1400m) which was taken out by Mystic Journey, who will not be present in the Memsie. Cliff's Edge and Hartnell finished 3rd and 4th behind the exciting prospect.  

Humidor came out of the Lawrence Stakes last year. However, it is fresh horses that have dominated the Memsie in recent years, winning eight of the past 10 editions. Black Heart Bart and Humidor are the fresh runners this year. 

Horses that draw inside barriers have tended to do well in the Memsie Stakes with 14 of the 19 winners jumping from barriers 1 to 5. This year, Hartnell, Cliff's Edge, So Si Bon, Fundamentalist and Scales Of Justice occupy those spots. 

Humidor was successful from barrier 3 in 2018 and will be aiming to become the first horse since Sunline in 2000 and 2001 to win the race in successive years. Black Heart Bart is another that will be out to become a multiple winner. 

Horses in the four and five-year-old age bracket have dominated the race since 2000, taking out 13 of the 19 running’s of the Memsie in that time period. This year Sesar, Oohood and Fundamentalist are the four-year-olds, while Cliff's Edge, Despatch, Begged Toya Mother and Alizee are five. 

Makybe Diva was seven when she won in 2005, Le Zagaletta saluted as an eight-year-old in 2003 and Sunline was six when she secured her second win in the event in 2001. 

The most successful trainers in the race since 2000 have been Trevor McKee, courtesy of Sunline, and Lee Freedman with Makybe Diva and Le Zagaletta. Peter Moody and Darren Weir are other multiple winners. 

David Hayes trained Miss Finland to victory in 2007 and combined with his son Ben, as well as Tom Dabernig in 2017 with Vega Magic. That stable have So Is Bon and Fundamentalist. Former Weir gallopers in the race this year include Humidor and Black Heart Bart. 

Of the hoops in this year’s Memsie, Brad Rawiler and Craig Williams are multiple winners. That duo are on Black Heart Bart and Hartnell. 

Selections based on trends since the year 2000: 

Recent trends in the Memsie point towards a favoured runner that has drawn well. He may be getting old but Hartnell can go close.



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