Newmarket Handicap Tips - Omen and form prediction for Flemington sprint

  • Do you believe in omens?
Lean Mean Machine wins at Warwick Farm

Every form student tries to find the winner of any event by crunching data, watching replays and making estimations on a bunch of variables.

However, Saturday’s Group 1 Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at Flemington sees me take a two-pronged approach. 

Firstly, I’ve spent hours upon hours on the form and come to the logical conclusion that Osborne Bulls is the horse to beat. 

He meets In Her Time better at the weights for just missing behind her in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m), and he’ll be far better suited swooping from the rear over 1200m. 

There’s good early speed from the outside with Eduardo likely to lead that division as they find their place, and that should allow Hugh Bowman to come into the race at the right time and swoop over the top of them. 

Poor Craig Williams declared Osborne Bulls the best sprinter in the land earlier this week and has been given the flick in favour of Bowman – but that’s racing.

Now, for my omen bet.

Rewind to September last year, I was doing the form for the Sydney Quaddie and was trying to check the odds on the comparison site I regularly used.

For some reason they had no odds available, so I went to another odds comparison site.

I opened the page for Race 4 by accident and a pop-up appeared with Lebron James on it.

As I went to close the pop-up, I thought “what a lean, mean-looking *#%$ he was, and as the pop-up closed, the first horse’s name I saw was Lean Mean Machine. 

So, I was on a site I never visited and had accidentally clicked Race 4 instead of Race 5, and the universe gave me a sign.

I immediately rang my partner and told her about this ‘sign’ as it was too coincidental to be ignored.

The coming Saturday, I had forgotten about this ‘sign’ until I saw Lean Mean Machine’s name appear in the next race.

I had $90 left in one of my accounts and thought “what the hell” and just put it on Lean Mean Machine at $14.

He ended up winning the Run to the Rose (1200m), but with a scratching at the barriers, deductions meant I only received $1200 or so.

Fast forward to Wednesday when fields and barrier draws were completed for Saturday’s racing.

I started doing the form for the Sydney Group 1 races, but after a while of going around and around and getting nowhere fast, I decided to put it to the side and start on the Melbourne form.

I opened the field for the Newmarket and scrolled down to the bottom and though “Great! A big field of 23 to wade through.”

And just as I was looking at the bottom horse, Lean Mean Machine, the form analyst on Sky Thoroughbred Central, which I was playing in the background, said in reference to a horse in the mounting yard, “He’s returned much leaner and much meaner.

So, there it was, the second, astonishing omen I’ve had for this Chris Waller-trained horse.

Obviously, I’ve looked through his form to justify backing him on Saturday, and his 3rd placing behind Sunlight and Zousain in the Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) gives him a genuine chance. 

He finished 2.5 lengths from In Her Time and Osborne Bulls in the Black Caviar Lightning but now drops 5.5kg on that run.

Waller stated prior to last start that 1000m would be too short for him and he was being set for the Newmarket Handicap, and at $23 and $6.50, I must have something on him.

The universe has spoken, and I’d be silly to not listen again. 


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Newmarket Handicap Tips - Omen and form prediction for Flemington sprint

Every form student tries to find the winner of any event by crunching data, watching replays and making estimations on a bunch of variables.

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