Queensland Derby Betting Tips - How does history help find the winner?


De Gaulle Lane winning the 2001 Queensland Derby.

The last of the major staying races of the season for the three-year-olds, the Queensland Derby (2400m), is set to be run and won at Doomben on Saturday June 9 and the $600,000 affair looks to be very open. 

Picking a winner in the 2400m race can be a tricky task but we have taken some of the guesswork out of it for you by analysing the trends of the race since the year 2000, the year that Freemason scored for John Hawkes. 

In the 19 Queensland Derby's to be run from 2000 to 2018, six favourite’s have saluted but contenders in the first few lines of betting have accounted for the majority of winners. 14 of the 19 winners since 2000 have scored at odds of $7 or below. 

Dark Dream won as a $4.20 pop last year, while Ruthven won as a $3.50 chance in 2018. Interestingly, both of those horses were then sold to Hong Kong interests and have gone on to be successful in the Chinese territory. 

Hawkspur was a $4 favourite when he won in 2013. Toulouse Lautrec scored at $5 in 2004. Interestingly, Shocking, who would go on to claim a Melbourne Cup (3200m) in the same year, was rolled as a $3.75 popular elect by the $9 chance, Court Ruler in 2009. 

This year, it is an open betting race and the Chris Waller-trained Nobu is a slight favourite in early markets with sportsbet at the $4.60 quote ahead of Mr Quickie at $5 and Scarlet Dream at $6.50. Re Edit is a $7.50 chance, while Carif at $12 and Aliferous at $13 head the rest. 

Of that group of gallopers only Mr Quickie and Re Edit have drawn in the first half of the field and it is interesting to note that horses drawn in the first half have won the Queensland Derby in 13 of the past 18 years. 

Ruthven, Eagle Way and Magicool were able to defy that trend by winning from out wide. Nobu has drawn barrier 13 but might jump from barrier 9 after the removal of emergencies. 

Ruthven and Magicool were both coming off runs in the SA Derby when they won this race, while Dark Dream and Eagle Way came off runs in the Grand Prix Stakes (2200m) at Doomben. That race has provided seven of the past 14 winners of the Derby.

This year, Fun Fact claimed the Grand Prix from Angel Of Heaven and Home Made. Nobu rises in class after claiming a BenchMark 74 at Randwick on May 25 ahead of Carif. 

Mr Quickie comes off a 3rd placing in the SA Derby, while Aliferous backs up after running 5th in the Queensland Oaks (2200m). Two horses since 2000 have won the Derby after running in the Oaks. 

Only three of the last 19 winners have won their previous start, but nine have come off a placing. 15 of the past 19 winners of the Queensland Derby have had their final lead up in Brisbane. Sonntag (in 2014) had his previous run in Melbourne. 

Chris Waller took out the race with Hawkspur in 2013 and has two runners this year. They are Nobu and Re Edit. 

The champion trainer is one of 10 horsemen from NSW to have trained the winner since 2000. Seven others have been from Victoria, while the 2016 winning trainer, Brian Guy, was a local (Gold Coast). 

Waller's horses are listed in some form guide as being trained at the Gold Coast but they have mainly been prepared at his Sydney stables. 

Recent jockeys to taste success in the Derby are Tim Clark and Tommy Berry. They partner rides Stars Of Carrum and Nobu. 

Selections according to trends

Horses in the first few lines of betting have a good record here but the Grand Prix form is possibly the better form reference. Fun Fact can cause a minor upset. 


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Queensland Derby Betting Tips - How does history help find the winner?

The Group 1 Queensland Derby (2400m) is the final Group 1 staying test for the three-year-olds this season and has a rich history, with champions such as Kingston Town, Strawberry Road and Rough Habit all winning the event

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