Randwick Guineas Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Randwick Guineas was formerly the Canterbury Guineas and switched to Randwick in 2006
  • Kementari attempting to emulate the likes of Dissident and Hallowed Crown
  • Hobartville Stakes is the ideal lead up form 
Dissident is a former winner of the Randwick Guineas

The Randwick Guineas (1600m) is the first leg of the Sydney Three-Year-Old Triple Crown, which also consists of the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Australian Derby (2400m). 

It has been one by some champion gallopers over the years, including the likes of It's A Dundeel and Weekend Hussler, while Octagonal won the race back in 1996 when it was known as the Canterbury Guineas. 

The Randwick Guineas was moved to its current home of Randwick racecourse in 2006, having previously been held at the tight turning Canterbury racecourse in Sydney's inner west. 

In that time period, the average price of the winning horses has been $7 with five favourites winning. They were Ilovethiscity at $1.90 in 2011, Shoot Out at $3 in 2010, Weekend Hussler at $1.65 in 2008 and Mentality at $2.75 in 2007. 

Last year, Man From Uncle started as a $4.50 chance but was upstaged by Inference ($9) on a Heavy track. This year, Kementari is a slightly more dominant favourite at the $2.70 quote in early markets with CrownBet ahead of D'argento at $5 and Pierata at $6.50. 

If we analyse the trends of the Randwick Guineas since the year 2000, we see that 15 of the 18 winners have started at odds of $10 or below. Le Romain scored at $21 in 2016, defeating Press Statement, while Dissident ($11 in 2014) was another recent winner that started at double figure odds. 

The ideal lead up form to the Randwick Guineas has traditionally been the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) and seven of the past eight winners have come out of that lead up. Three of those winners have completed the double including the 2015 winner, Hallowed Crown, as well as Dissident and Ilovethiscity in 2011. 


This year, Kementari took out the Hobartville from Pierata and D'argento. Trapeze Artist was 4th, while the 2017 VRC Derby (2500m) winner, Ace High finished 5th. 

This year's edition of the race sees a field of 14 in action and if you are considering a wager on D'argento or Trapeze Artist you will be pleased to know that horses drawn wide in the field have a respectable record in this race. 

10 of the 18 winners since 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field, including Inference, Dissident and Mosheen (2012). Trapeze Artist and D'argento have drawn 10 and 14 respectively. 

Other leading contenders have fared better at the draw. Kementari drew barrier 4, while Ace High will jump from Barrier 2. 

Sydney gallopers have won the race on eight occasions in the last 11 years. Successful Victorian gallopers have been Dissident, Mosheen and Weekend Hussler, while It's A Dundeel was based in New Zealand when he won. 

This year, most horses are NSW based, except Sully and Peaceful State, who are Victorian, while Capital Gain is based in Queensland. Age Of Fire crosses the Tasman from New Zealand. 

For fans of the Chris Waller-trained D'argento, note that the Randwick Guineas is one of the only feature mile races at the track that the champion trainer is yet to claim. He was unable to break his duck in 2016 with Press Statement and also saddles up Tangled, Kaonic and Tangmere this year. John Hawkes and Jack Denham are the only multiple winning trainers since 2000. 

James Cummings saddles up Kementari and teamed with his Grandfather, Bart, to win the even in 2014 with Hallowed Crown. 

Selection based on trends:

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