Saturday Racing Preview - Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day

  • Preview of all nine races on Black Caviar Lightning Day
  • The Speed Maps for every race 
  • What horses will be Most and Least Advantaged? 

Group One racing returns to headquarters for The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m) down the famous Flemington straight. Australia’s best sprinter Redzel returns as a short price favourite.

The three-year-olds headline the support program, with the Group 3 TAB Vanity (1400m) and the Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m).

We Preview all nine races and take a look at the all-important Speed Map for all nine races on the card, trying to predict the tempo of the race and which horses will be most and least advantaged. 

Flemington Race 1 - The Asian Executive Stakes (1100m) 

Preview: 
An interesting race between exposed form and unraced talent. They don’t trial better than Pierro Belle. Her trial was clearly better than Kinky Boom who has since won on debut and is the favourite for the Blue Diamond. The Tony McEvoy two-year-olds are absolutely flying. The market hasn’t missed her but she might be something special. The other unraced runner is for the Hawkes team by the name of Nuclear Blitz. I’ve been waiting for this Filly to debut since her breathtaking Jumpout at Flemington a fortnight ago. She tracked down the outside fence and was on the bit and travelling for the entire 800m. Plenty of horses were under pressure inside the final 150m, with the horse on her inside under the whip to go with her over the final 100m. Khulaasa looks to have the best-exposed form. She raced down the straight in her debut run which is always a positive. She flew late and just missed behind Crossing The Abbey. 
Speed Map Says: 
A straight race for the two-year-olds is always a nightmare for those trying to construct a speed map.Sanglier and Invincible Lad look like the speed in the race. Bold Type, Roobeena and Concrete shouldn’t be too far away. Khulaasa and Prairie Fire should go back. The first starters are obvious unknowns. 

See our Tips for Flemington Race 1 here. 


Flemington Race 2 - Japan Racing Association Handicap (2000m) 

Preview:
This is the weakest race of the day on what is otherwise a really solid and intriguing card. We won’t speed too much time on this preview. The Mighty Jrod is critical to this race. If he runs off the quick backup, which I think he does seeing he is in the Robbie Laing stable, then we should see a genuine tempo. Darren Weir took Imperator Augustus to the bush for an easy kill last start and gets the right speed map if Ben Thompson is positive from the gate. Khutulun got everything to suit last start with no weight and nabbed Downhearted right on the post. The seven-year-old has never won back-to-back races in her career. Mr Churchill spilt Willi Willi and Royal Ace two starts ago before racing flat last start. 
Speed Map Says: 
Assuming The Mighty Jrod runs on the seven-day backup, he is the obvious speed in the race and should be leading. Midas Man should slide across with him and sit on-speed. Mr Churchill maps to get a perfect run, being able to box seat. The same can be said for Imperator Augustus. I hope Ben Thompson is aggressive from a middle gate, as there will be a spot for him with Khutulun, Stormy Shore and Cry If I Want To all going back from inside barriers. Velox has no option but to snag back from barrier 10, Khartoum went back in his first start for the new stable. 
Most Advantaged: 
Mr Churchill 
Imperator Augustus 
Least Advantaged: 
Velox 
Khutulun 


Flemington Race 3 - TCL TV Handicap (1400m) 

Preview: 
Mamzelle Tess was huge beating home Sharing last start under the 59kg at Caulfield. Although she has barrier nine, she should make her own luck on the speed. Is there a stable going better than Enver Jusufovic? His horses are flying and Sharing is no exception. She has her foot on the till, winning two starts ago over this track and trip before running a great third behind Jester Halo and Mamzelle Tess at Caulfield after sweating up badly in the Mounting Yard. Gate one is the issue for her, if she can get even luck in running, she must be considered a key factor.
Miss Adequate has just 52kg on her back first-up and apprentice Fred Kersley isn’t afraid to be positive on his horses which I like. She should either lead or box seat from a perfect gate and is dynamite early in her preparations.  
Speed Map Says: 
The speed looks genuine here without being frantic. Miss Adequate will roll forward from a good gate. Spanish Reef has the outside barrier, she raced on-speed in this class last preparation before taking a midfield position in harder races. Mamzelle Tess should roll forward with Spanish Reef and although she has barrier nine, that shouldn’t pose too many problems. I think the fact that Spanish Reef is drawn to her outside is a big advantage. Ma Jones and Bellaria will both want to find positions better than midfield from middle gates. Tykiato, Banda Spice and Alma’s Rossa are the next line of speed with Sharing and Facts at the back. 
Most Advantaged: 
Mamzelle Tess 
Tykiato 
Miss Adequate 
Least Advantaged: 
Sharing 
Alma’s Rossa


Flemington Race 4 - Goodwood Racecourse Handicap (1600m) 

Preview: 
Kings Will Dream has been a class above his rivals in his two Australian starts at Warrnambool and Ballarat. The four-year-old Gelding looked well above average winning last start and must be considered here. He rises sharply in class by drops 4.5kg in the process. Downhearted probably would’ve won last start if not for The Mighty Jrod taking him on midrace. He kicked well and looked the winner at the 100m but was just run down by Khutulun who had the perfect run in transit. He goes from 1800m to 1600m and gets just 52kg on his back after the claim from Steph Thornton. Notio is a horse to keep your eye on. He ran very well behind Runson and Epic Moment last start and pulled up with Mild heat stress. He wasn’t at his peak second-up and will improve off that run. He will settle closer from the good gate here and is a major player. So Poysed is looking for three consecutive wins and the form cannot be knocked. 
Speed Map Says:
Another Interesting Speed Map here over the Mile trip, with most of the early speed coming from the inside barriers. We should see Downhearted push to the lead. Sin To Win can settle on his back with Kings Will Dream sliding across from barrier eight. Notio can settle further forward today from the good barrier as can Domino Vitale. The speed map looks poor for The Avenger and Plot The Course. Both could be stuck wide and will probably go back with So Poysed and Charlevoix. 
Most Advantaged: 
Downhearted 
Notio 
Kings Will Dream
Least Advantaged: 
Charlevoix 
The Avenger 
Plot The Course

See our Tips for Flemington Race 4 here. 


Flemington Race 5 - Royal Ascot Handicap (1200m) 

Preview: 
You can make a strong case that Handsome Thief should’ve won both his races this preparation. He was held up last start and still picked up and flashed home for second behind Eurack despite having 60kg on his back. Ken’s Dream drops from a Group 2 race to a Benchmark 90 and somehow still drops in weight, from 58.5kg to 58kg after the Ethan Brown claim. The four-year-old Gelding maps to get a perfect run in the race and has had one win and two placings from five starts at the track. Nasdex hasn’t missed a place since being transferred to the Mathew Ellerton & Simon Zahra stable. He will be able to sit on-speed and control the race. He has 56.5kg after the claim from Steph Thornton. Atlantic City was unlucky not to beat Just Hifalutin at this track and trip last start in a Benchmark 84. His two runs this campaign have been excellent and he drops 2.5kg from last start. 
Speed Map Says: 
It’s always a tough ask assembling Speed Maps for straight races. All the speed in this race is from the outside six barriers so It wouldn’t shock me if they come down the grandstand side. Prima and Nasdex look like the logical pace in the race. I really like the run Ken’s Dream will get in the race. He should sit a little closer than usual from gate 10 with a lack of on-pace runners in the race. It’s going to be tough for the likes of Handsome Thief, Lucky Liberty and Atlantic CIty who will all get back from inside barriers. 
Most Advantaged: 
Ken’s Dream
Nasdex
Least Advantaged: 
Handsome Thief 
Lizard Island 
Atlantic City 
Lucky Liberty

See our Tips for Flemington Race 5 here.


Flemington Race 6 - The TAB Vanity (1400m) 

Preview: 
Aloisia is going to need to be an exceptional horse to win The Vanity first-up. Her Jumpout was plain at best and I’d need to see her in the yard to have any confidence. Paris Rock has been flawless winning all three of her starts. She did get the tempo to suit last start but was still good enough to put her rivals away in impressive fashion. Twitchy Frank will lead and might be worth another chance, my concern is Jockey Ethan Brown said he was of the opinion that the horse might have been coming to the end of her preparation. Bring Me Roses bolted in the Manifold over the Spring beating Leather’N’Lace who was the run of the race against the likes of Booker, Shoals and Tulip last week. She then went onto finish second in the Oaks and is a major player first-up. 
Speed Map Says: 
Twitchy Frank should lead from barrier two. Neurotic will push forward with Rimraam and Paris Rock all finding on-speed positions. Aloisia is the interesting runner from the outside gate. She pushed forward in her runs at 1600m+ last preparation but sat back at 1400m. I don’t think Mark Zahra will exert her early and will either be cast three-deep or at the tail of the field. Bring Me Roses can find a more forward position than last preparation from an ideal barrier. Shokora, Anchor Bid and Caribbean Pearl will all need to go back to find a position. 
Most Advantaged: 
Paris Rock 
Rimraam 
Bring Me Roses 
Least Advantaged: 
Aloisia 
Anchor Bid 
Shokora 
Caribbean Pearl


Flemington Race 7 - CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) 

Preview: 
It’s clear from his first-up run that Cliff’s Edge has gone to a new level this preparation. There were whispers on track before his first-up run in the Manfred that he had taken the next leap and he proved that with a slashing win defeating Overshare and Muraaqeb. Gate 13 shouldn’t be a concern as he will roll forward. It’s a competitive race but he looks a big hope. Scarecrow was backed as if unbeatable before being scratched a week ago. Tony McEvoy’s youngsters are low-flying and he looks the only natural speed in the race with Cliff’s Edge. Judging on his two wins in December, Grunt could be anything. It would be a special performance to beat these horses first-up but a win wouldn’t surprise. Peaceful State is another one that could be a special horse, backing up his run in the Sandown Guineas with an incredible first-up victory at Sandown defeating Call Me Handsome. Cao Cao and Island Missile are also both major players. 
Speed Map Says: 
A huge field here for the CS Hayes Stakes. There is some guesswork involved with this Speed Map. Scarecrow looks the likely leader from a middle barrier. Cliff’s Edge will work forward with Grunt maintaining a prominent position. Embellish and Cao Cao may also look to hold a position from their inside gates. Main Stage, Muraaqeb and Eshtiraak will all go back from wide gates. The map doesn’t look good for Vinland or Kentucky Breeze who have the two widest barriers. Paret, Sunquest and Sully are others that will also look to go back. Peaceful State and Island Missile should get good runs midfield. 
Most Advantaged: 
Peaceful State 
Island Missile 
Cliff’s Edge
Least Advantaged: 
Vinland 
Kentucky Breeze
Eshtiraak


Flemington Race 8 - Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m)

For a FULL Preview of the Black Caviar Lightning click here.

Speed Map Says: 
I’d be surprised if they split here. Most horses will want to be following Redzel, meaning they’ll come down the grandstand side. As expected with a Group 1 over 1000m, the pace will be hot. Super Too only knows one way and that’s leading. Ball Of Muscle and Redzel will both be right there. Formality maps to get a nice run behind Redzel, as does Redkirk Warrior. I’m unsure about where Hey Doc gets. He has the speed to be right with the leaders and a decision will need to be made early as he is drawn between Ball Of Muscle and Super Too. Rock Magic, Terravista, Missrock and Supido will let the others work themselves out and try and run over the top.  
Most Advantaged: 
Formality 
Redkirk Warrior
Terravista 
Least Advantaged: 
Super Too
Hey Doc


Flemington Race 9 - York Racecourse Handicap (1400m)

Preview:
This will either be a hindsight race, or an impossible end to the day. Either Manolo Blahniq jogs in again, or either are 11 chances in the race. The four-year-old Gelding got the race run to suit last start and Ben Allen produced a 10/10 ride (some bias talking through my pocket) to score an easy victory. The field he meets here isn’t much harder, but It’s hard to trust a non-winner like him to string together consecutive victories. Runson scored a terrific victory last start defeating Epic Moment and Notio. He won’t know himself with 54kg and must be considered. Going wider, Royal Rapture and Nozami can both run a race in a seemingly impossible race outside of Manolo Blahniq.
Speed Map Says: 
We should see a hot tempo here. Glenrowan Prince will dart across from gate 15. Runson and Kingsguard should both push forward with Chamois Road kicking up to hold a position from the inside gate. Coldstone is another horse that should push forward to maintain a position from a good barrier. Manolo Blahniq will go back from a wide gate and getting onto the three-wide line with cover would be a good result. 
Most Advantaged: 
Chamois Road
Coldstone 
Least Advantaged: 
Glenrowan Prince



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Saturday Racing Preview - Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day

Group One racing returns to headquarters for The Black Caviar Lightning Stakes (1000m) down the famous Flemington straight. Australia’s best sprinter Redzel returns as a short price favourite.

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