Saturday Racing Preview - Australian Guineas Day

  • Preview of all nine races on Australian Guineas Day
  • The Speed Maps for every race 
  • What horses will be Most and Least Advantaged? 
Hey Doc wins the 2017 Australian Guineas.

We are back at fabulous Flemington after a terrific Blue Diamond Stakes Day. It is Australian Guineas Day (1600m) and this year’s rendition looks to be very competitive. 

The Australian Guineas has been a Group 1 race since 1987 and has produced many great winners. Notable winners include Hey Doc (2017) Shamus Award (2014), Mosheen (2012), Miss Finland (2007) and Apache Cat (2006).

The support program includes the Group 3 Autumn Handicap (1400m), Group 3 Tressady Stakes (1400m), Listed ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap (1000m) and the Listed Roy Higgins Quality (2600m).

We Preview all nine races and take a look at the all-important Speed Map for all nine races on the card, trying to predict the tempo of the race and which horses will be most and least advantaged. 

Flemington Race 1 - 3AW is Football Stakes (1000m) 

Impossible to line these up with the unraced commodities. Absaroka holds favouritsm for the Lindsay Park stable. We found this Filly from the Jumpouts back on February 9 and had this to say about her. “Absaroka is a Filly by Redoute’s Choice from Montana Sunset and looks to have plenty of ability. She sat three-wide for the entire Jumpout and was under a strong hold as she eased past the Godolphin horse Canzonet with 100m remaining. She won untouched by a length, with six lengths back to third. She has well above average ability and goes in the Blackbook.” Ollivander and Nomothaj are clearly the two on top from the raced brigade. 

Flemington Race 2 - Roy Higgins Quality (2600m) 

What an interesting race this is. Both the Lloyd Williams runners, Foundry and Aloft are here first-up over 2600m. Last preparation Foundry started his preparation over 1600m while Aloft resumed over 1800m. Foundry won the Group One The Metropolitan over the Spring and looks to be the class in the race with his stablemate Aloft. Aloft ran placings behind Big Duke and Almandin before finishing his campaign with a disappointing seventh in the Lexus Stakes. The betting should tell us how fit and ready to go these two are. Double Bluff is searching for three consecutive victories after wins at Caulfield and Moonee Valley. The six-year-old has had six starts at Flemington for one win and no placings. Fanatic capped off his Spring Carnival with a victory in the Sandown Cup. He has been good through his two starts this campaign and gets out to a suitable trip.  
Speed Map Says: 
There doesn’t look to be too much tempo in this race and they should go a few lengths below benchmark. We saw the Lloyd Williams pair (Homesman & Almandin) settle in positive positions last week at Caulfield and we should see the same again with Aloft and Foundry. Aloft should slide across from barrier six and lead. Foundry maps to do no work behind him with Eaton the other horse that can sit on-pace. Cry If I Want To and Fanatic will both go back at the start from inside barriers. Double Bluff may settle closer and their could be a nice position two pairs back for him. The barrier/map is tricky for Ormito. He probably goes forward with Aloft and sits outside him.
Most Advantaged: 
Double Bluff 
Least Advantaged: 
Cry If I Want To

See Tips for Flemington Race 2 HERE.

Flemington Race 3 - Mittys Handicap (1100m) 

Fragonard drops from a Group Three to a Benchmark 84 for the Fillies and Mares. Her last start fourth beaten only a length behind Prussian Vixen, Flippant and Petition was extremely good. Her last second-up run was a sixth beaten 3.6 lengths behind I Am A Star and Kenedna in the Group Two Kewney Stakes. She rises 5kg from her last run. Hear The Chant was beaten a length by Fragonard two starts ago at Moonee Valley. She meets Fragonard 4.5kg better at the weights here and has performed well at the recent Jumpouts. El Rada won well first-up at Ballarat and is never far away from the money. This is a step up in grade but this race does look a weaker Benchmark 84 when you move away from the top two in the weights. 
Speed Map Says: 
Plenty Of Speed engaged here. They should go well above Benchmark early for this grade of race. Essence Of Terror has led in both her starts since the Blinkers have been put on. Working From Home loves to lead and will go hard. Hear The Chant and Sister Kitty Mac will both also push forward. This should give us a hot speed battle early. Club Tropicana, El Rada, Motown Lil and Give Us A Go will all go back early, leaving Fragonard to get the perfect run, doing no work just off the speed. 
Most Advantaged: 
Hear The Chant
Least Advantaged: 
Working From Home 
Sister Kitty Mac 

Flemington Race 4 - Frances Tressady Stakes (1400m) 

Oregon’s Day is first-up since November where she ran third in the Group Three Summoned Stakes behind Long Time Ago and Mrs Gardenia. She has failed in her two starts at Flemington but don’t take too much notice of that. Those two runs came in the Group Two Let's Elope Stakes where she was planted four-wide with no cover, the other was in the Group Two Kewney Stakes where she missed the start by four lengths on a track where no winners came from further back than fourth all day. She resumes here over 1400m which suggests trainer Mick Price has her ready to fire. Harlow Gold had ordinary Spring but if her Jumpout was any indication, a win shouldn’t be too far away. She led and looked very forward, opening up a four-length lead in the straight before being eased down over the concluding stages. She ran fourth in the Australian Guineas last year behind Hey Doc and has the class to win here. Flippant looked ready to win after flashing home to just miss behind Prussian Vixen two starts ago. She rose from 1200m to 1400m but just battled home behind Silent Sedition seven days ago. She stays at 1400m and would need to improve to win here.
Speed Map Says: 
This speed map looks straightforward on paper. Deja Blue and Flippant are the two that will go forward from gates eight and nine. Oregon’s Day should get the perfect run just off the speed from gate six with Harlow Gold, Fille Champagne and Consommateur all going back from the inside five gates. Savaju can find a more forward position from gate three with Tykaito. Soho Ruby and Banda Spice will both need to go back from outside gates.
Most Advantaged: 
Oregon’s Day 
Deja Blue
Least Advantaged: 
Harlow Gold 
Soho Ruby

Flemington Race 5 - JDRF Australia Handicap (2000m)

This is a Benchmark 70 race over 2000m wedged in between two Group Three races. Seattle Park is a stayer on the rise. His return over 1400m at Sandown was terrific before springboarding into a Class 1 over 1950m at the Yarra Valley. He settled at the tail of the field on a track that’s hard to make ground on. He moved around them at the 400m and drew away for an ultra impressive 1.5 length victory under hands and heels. The draw is less than ideal but he has plenty of ability. Mutarakem scored a tough win at Moonee Valley last start but has been punished with an extra 2kg. Oliver stays on board but the 61kg and barrier 11 are two negatives. Vungers scored an impressive all the way victory last start at Moonee Valley. Brad Rawiller ran them off their legs and the two weeks between runs looks ideal. This is a step up in grade but he can measure up.  
Speed Map Says: 
I’m going to try my absolute best to put together a speed map here. All the pace looks to be from the middle to outside barriers. Vungers should go forward and lead. Rokda Kasba and Mutarakem should both also roll forward. City Of Kirkwall and Calendar Lad race on-pace which might be tricky as they hold gates 13 and 14. Wannon Warrior should get a good run just off the speed with Zandarral. Khartoum has a tendicany to miss the start and either races right on speed or near the tail of the field, so good luck figuring that one out. All Out Of Love might be all out of luck from gate 15, he will need to go all the way back to the tail to find a position. Mr Fergus, Seattle Park, Big Pat’s Pontiac should all go back at the start. 
Most Advantaged: 
Wannon Warrior 
La Bella Jude
Least Advantaged:
Mr Fergus
Seattle Park 
All Out Of Love 
Calendar Lad 
City Of Kirkwall 

Flemington Race 6 - Autumn Handicap (1400m)

There is a big watch on the German import Poetic Dream. David Hayes paid 1.4 Million for him in the Spring and he is nominated for the Doncaster Mile and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Poetic Dream was clearly the best horse at the Werribee Jumpouts two weeks ago and I put him straight in the blackbook. I said this about his Jumpout. “Poetic Dream had the Blinkers on for his Jumpout, leading and controlling proceedings from the front. Many horses were off the bit in the straight but he just cruised to the line under his own steam, opening up a five-length lead. He has a lovely action and looks like a Group One horse in the making.” Less than 12 months ago, this four-year-old was winning the Group Two 2000 Guineas in Germany. Tshahitsi can bounce back from his poor run in the Orr Stakes. He was held up him behind runners on this day and that clearly isn’t the way to ride the horse. He should be out and leading here and will be giving them something to run down. Odeon had a terrific Spring Carnival. He won two races before being beaten just 2.5 lengths behind Tosen Stardom in the Group One Mackinnon Stakes. If the Ellerton and Zahra stable have him forward first-up, he can run a big race. 
Speed Map Says: 
Tshahitsi will boot up from his inside barrier and lead. Odeon and Dodging Bullets should both find forward positions without doing much work. Coldstone and Lizard Island should push forward and take up prominent positions behind Tshahitsi. The Interesting thing about this speed map is the midfield runners are coming over from wide gates Cool Chap, Magnapal and Violate. While the inside runners will either push forward as mentioned, or go back. The back markers include Kenjorwood, Nozomi, Poetic Dream and Amovatio. 
Most Advantaged:
Dodging Bullets 
Least Advantaged: 

Flemington Race 7 - Australian Guineas (1600m) 

Click HERE to see FULL PREVIEW of the Australian Guineas.

Speed Map Says: 
Cliff’s Edge has no choice but to fire out from gate 16. He should ensure a good tempo. Black Sail should trail him, with Addictive Nature, Embellish and possibly Aloisia pushing forward. I’m not sure what the tactics will be for Grunt. He more than likely sits three or four wide. Main Stage and Mighty Boss can both settle a touch closer from their good draws. Bring Me Roses, Mr So And So, Villermont, Holy Snow, Muraaqeb and Levendi will all be going back at the start. Peaceful State and Salsamour will both be looking for some luck in getting a midfield position. I’m confident Peaceful State can find some cover. 
Most Advantaged: 
Black Sail
Main Stage 
Least Advantaged: 
Bring Me Roses 

Flemington Race 8 - ATA/Bob Hoysted Handicap (1000m) 

Fell Swoop hasn’t won since April 2016 but looks well placed here. He was only two lengths behind Redzel first-up last preparation in a race that rated through the roof. He had a tough run second-up and finished three lengths behind In Her Time and English before pulling up with the Thumps after finishing last in The Everest. He hasn’t raced at 1000m for almost three years but has four wins and one placing from six starts at the distance. Secret Agenda had a terrific Autumn Carnival last year, winning the Group Two Sapphire Stakes, Group One UBET Classic before finishing fourth in the Goodwood behind Vega Magic. She carries 60kg but she flies fresh and has Oliver on board. Cannyescent was terrific in his Jumpout before the Rubiton Stakes and had a legitimate excuse, pulling up with EIPH. The 1000m is a question mark, but he should bounce back well. Crystal Dreamer is in great form. He followed up two impressive victories with a fourth, carrying 60kg behind Lady Esprit and Snitty Kitty. He drops 1.5kg and D.Lane stays on.  
Speed Map Says: 
There is speed from both the inside and outside barriers here. They haven’t been splitting in recent meetings at Flemington so I’d imagine they will come as one group down the center of the track. Sunday Escape should push up from the inside gate, with Fell Swoop and Malibu Style going forward from outside gates. Crystal Dreamer and I’m Wesley both also racing on-pace. Cannyescent and Secret Agenda should sit just off the speed, with Olivier back on the inside and Thermal Current in the middle of runners. Khalama and Husson Eagle will both go back at the start. 
Most Advantaged: 
Fell Swoop 
Husson Eagle 
Least Advantaged: 
I’m Wesley 

See Tips for Flemington Race 8 HERE.

Flemington Race 9 - Saintly Handicap (1400m) 

Scarecrow ran a great fifth in the CS Hayes Stakes behind Grunt, Cliff’s Edge and Main Stage. He sat outside Cao Cao and beat him home comfortably. He was still in the race until being swamped the last 50m. An easier run in transit should see him finish off a strong 1400m. Cao Cao led in the CS Hayes stakes and looked to be travelling at the 400m before not finding a great deal. He has form tied around plenty of these but It’s hard to see him turning the tables on Scarecrow. Barbeque, Over And Above and Holbein are all leading chances in the race. 
Speed Map Says: 
Plenty of speed involved here. Cao Cao, Over And Above, Scarecrow and Red White And Blue should all push forward early. I have Over And Above leading from Red White And Blue, Cao Cao in behind the leader and Scarecrow getting a perfect trail in fourth. This is a horror speed map for both Indernile and Island Missile who will most likely be cast wide from outside barriers. Eshtiraak and Sheer Madness will both be forced to go back from their outside gates. Holbein, Kentucky Breeze, Barbeque, Murrahib and Caribbean Pearl are the next line of speed behind behind the first five in running. 
Most Advantaged: 
Scarecrow (3 votes)
Cao Cao
Least Advantaged: 
Island Missile 
Sheer Madness
Angelic Spirit 

See Tips for Flemington Race 9 HERE.

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Saturday Racing Preview - Australian Guineas Day

We are back at fabulous Flemington after a terrific Blue Diamond Stakes Day. It is Australian Guineas Day (1600m) and this year’s rendition looks to be very competitive.

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