Stradbroke Handicap Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • Roughies have a good record in this race
  • Kingsford-Smith Cup is the logical form reference
Landsighting took out the Stradbroke in the year 2000

The Stradbroke Handicap (1350m) is the marquee race of the Queensland carnival and has been won by some top gallopers over the years including Santa Ana Lane in 2018 and Private Steer in 2003. Black Piranha was a two time winner back in 2009 & 2010, as was Rough Habit, who claimed the race way back in 1991 and 1992. 

The $1.5 million event has been held at Doomben in two of the past three years but is back at Eagle Farm this year with the surface of that track now over its issues. 

The favourite in early markets with BetEasy is the Doomben 10000 (1200m) and Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m) winner, The Bostonian, who has been posted at the $4.60 quote. Trekking is at $6, while Tyzone is a $10 shot. Spright heads the rest at $11. 

A common theme of recent winners is that that they have all won at decent odds. The past seven winners have paid higher than $10. Picking a winner in the Straddie can tend to be a tad tricky because of the Handicap conditions of the race and the large fields. 

In order to take some of the guesswork out for you, we have analysed the trends of the race since the year 2000 and it points to the following. 

It is important to consider the odd roughie or two in this race as the average price of the winners since 2000 has been a very healthy $14.70.

Santa Ana Lane won at $14 last year, following Impending, who won at $21 in 2017. The others are Under The Louvre ($11 in 2016), River Lad ($31 in 2014), Linton ($26 in 2013) and Mid Summer Music ($31 in 2012). 

Favourites have a moderate record in the Stradbroke and only three popular elects have saluted since 2000. Black Piranha took out the first of his two Stradbrokes as a $4 chance in 2009, while Thorn Park ($5.50 in 2004) and Private Steer ($3.50 in 2003) both had the class to get the job done. 

Horses that are closer to the average winning price of $14.50 of winners this millennium are Home Of The Brave, Endless Drama (both $14), as well as Despatch, Widgee Turf and Pretty In Pink (all $15). 

For those that are keen on the likes of Pretty In Pink, who has just 49.5kg, horses down in the weights tend to go well in the Stradbroke. The average weight carried by the winners has been a fraction below 53kg. Tyzone and I'm A Rippa carry that this year. 

The Bostonian has been allocated top weight of 57kg. No ‘toppie’ has won the Stradbroke this millennium. The highest weight that was carried to victory was 55.5kg by Black Piranha in 2010. 

The average weight is low, due in part to the fact that five three-year-olds have won the race since 2000 including Impending in 2017, as well as Private Steer in 2003 and La Montagna in 2006.

That age group is just shaded by the four-year-olds as the most successful. Srikandi, Thorn Park and Show A Heart are among five horses aged four to have won since 2000, while horses aged six have also bobbed up in this race, winning it on four occasions. 

The four-year-olds this year are The Bostonian, Despatch, Trekking and Viridine, while three-year-olds include Encryption and the filly, Pretty In Pink.  

For those considering a wager on Despatch, who has drawn barrier 1, horses closer to the rail have enjoyed a slight advantage since 2000. Barriers 1 through to 5 have accounted for nearly half of the winners in that time period, which provides a big thumbs up to Pretty In Pink and Princess Posh, as well as Despatch. 

Siren's Fury and Tactical Advantage are two of the emergencies in the race and are currently in barrier 4 and 5. Deploy and Endless Drama may jump from those spots.  

Keep in mind that four of the past six winners have drawn wide so the likes of Home Of The Brave are not without a chance. 

Finally, the ideal lead up form for this race has been the Doomben 10,000 (1200m) with nine of the past 15 horses coming out of that race, including Srikandi, who placed 6th in 2015. 

This year, the winner in the Doomben 10000 was The Bostonian, while Dollar For Dollar placed 3rd. 

A change in scheduling saw the Doomben 10000 reduced from 1350m to 1200m in 2017 with the Kingsford Smith Cup (1350m) sandwiched between the 10000 and the Stradbroke. 

Given the tinkering of the dates by Queensland Racing, the Kingsford Smith form may be the one to look at and again it was The Bostonian, this time from Princess Posh and Trekking.  

Finally, it is interesting to note that Con Karakatsanis is the only trainer to have won the Stradbroke twice since 2000. Of the jockeys, only Danny Nikolic is a multiple winner. 

Summary according to trends

Look for roughies and Princess Posh is one to consider a nice price. 

Change State

*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

News Stream

Stradbroke Handicap - news, tips and betting advice

Share this with your friends

Your comments:

Stradbroke Handicap Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

What are the recent trends in the Stradbroke Handicap?

Read more »

You have unread messages

You have unread messages