Sydney Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • What are the recent trends in the Sydney Cup? 
  • And how can history help us find the winner?

The Sydney Cup (3200m) is one of the oldest races in Australia and while it does not enjoy the limelight of the Melbourne Cup (3200m), it has been won by some quality performers, including Makybe Diva (2004), Tie The Knot (1998/99) and Kingston Town (1980). 

In analysing the recent trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to keep in mind when placing a bet on the $2 million Group 1. 

Finding a winner can be a little tricky due to the lack of similar distance races on the calendar and the average price of the winning horses has been $10.10. 

Last year, the veteran galloper, Who Shot Thebarman took out the race as an $18 chance. In 2017, Polarisation won at $6.50. The then five-year-old won what was 'take two' of the famous event, which was re-run two weeks after the first was declared a no race due to Almoonqith breaking down the first time the field went past the finish.  

A total of seven favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Offer in 2014 and Niwot in 2012, while, surprisingly, Makybe Diva was a $3.50 second favourite behind Mummify ($3) when she won the race in 2004. 

In early betting markets with BetEasy this year it is the international galloper, Dubhe, that has been posted as a $3.10 favourite ahead of Midterm at $8 and Big Duke at $8.50. Yogi and Shraaoh (both $11) head the rest. 

The 3200m start at Randwick is a short run to the home turn before the stayers pass the post and embark on one full lap as they head for Group 1 glory. Despite the long distance, a good barrier can be crucial and six of the past 10 winners have drawn between barriers 1 and 6. 

This year, Rondinella, Doukhan, Shraaoh, Dubhe, Patrick Erin and Semari occupy those spots. 

The most successful age group since the year 2000 has been the five-year-olds with eight winners, including four of the past five, while horses aged seven have provided four winners. Only two four-year-olds have won the race in the time period since 2000 and they were Honor Babe in 2003 and Jessicabeel in 2010. 

Of the runners this year, The Taj Mahal, Sir Charles Road, Brimham Rocks and Top Of The Range are five. Patrick Erin, Red Cardinal, Big Duke and Vengeur Masque are seven. Dubhe is a four-year-old. 

The race has been shared amongst a variety of trainers in the last 19 years and Chris Waller and Robert Hickmott are the only multiple winners. Waller saddled up Who Shot Thebarman last year as well as Grand Marshall in 2015 and Stand To Gain in 2011. He takes Patrick Erin, Brimham Rocks and Shraaoh into the race.  

Hickmott is no longer the leading trainer for the Williams stable and that role was taken up by Liam Howley last year. Hickmott trained Gallante , while Team Williams also had success with Gallic in 2006. This year, The Taj Mahal and Midterm are the stable representatives. 

There has been an even spread of jockeys to have won the race with only Jim Cassidy and Corey Brown successful on multiple occasions. This year, the 'Pumper' Cassidy is kicking back enjoying retirement, while Brown steers Glory Days. 

The key lead up form to the Sydney Cup has traditionally been the Chairman's Handicap (2600m), held at Randwick the week prior. Nine of the past 19 winners have had their last start in that race, including three of the past six, while the Tancred Stakes (2400m) has also provided five winners.

Gallic Chieftain won the Chairman's this year ahead of Shraaoh. Big Duke finished runner-up in the Tancred, while Rondinella was 3rd. 

Finally, for fans of The Taj Mahal, who carries topweight this weekend, Mourayan has been the only 'toppie' to have won the Sydney Cup since 2000, scoring with 58kg in 2013. 

The average weight that has been carried to victory has been 54kg and Red Cardinal, Big Duke and Vengeur Masque carry that weight his year. 

Selections according to trends.  

Big Duke has drawn awkwardly but ticks a lot of boxes based on trends. 

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Sydney Cup Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

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