Doncaster Mile Betting Tips - How does history help us find the winner?

  • It's Somewhat scored as an outsider last year
  • Three-year-olds have a great record
  • Chris Waller has dominated the Doncaster and will be aiming for five wins in the last six years in the race
More Joyous took out the Doncaster in 2012

The Doncaster Mile (1600m), officially registered as the Doncaster Handicap, is one of the oldest and most famous races on the Australian racing calendar and has been taken out by some champions of the turf including Sunline, Super Impose and Gunsynd. 

In recent years, Chris Waller has owned the race, winning it in four of the last five years, courtesy of Sacred Falls (2013 and 2014) as well as Kermadec (2015) and the champion, Winx (2016). The Godolphin stable (with John O'Shea as trainer) won the race in 2017 with It's Somewhat. 

This year, with James Cummings at the helm, Godolphin have the favourite in the race, Kementari, while Waller has a massive six runners in the $3 million feature and they are Endless Drama, Tom Melbourne, Comin' Through, Egg Tart, Mister Sea Wolf and D'Argento. 

In assessing the chances of that six, as well as the entire field of runners, we have gone back through the record books and looked at the recent trends of the race in order to help you find a winner. 

Since the year 2000, there have been six favourites to have won the Doncaster, four of whom were mares in Winx (2016), More Joyous (2012), Private Steer (2004) and Sunline (2002). 

In early markets with CrownBet this year, the three-year-old, Kementari, is at $3.60, while Happy Clapper is at $5.50. Another three-year-old, D'argento, is at $6.50, while the 2017 Cox Plate (2040m) runner-up, Humidor, is at $8.50. 

The average price of the winning horses since the year 2000 has been just $9.70, and the average field size has been 18. This year, a field of 16 has accepted for the time-honoured classic.  

The Handicap conditions of the race are one of the reasons why the Doncaster attracts a big field and the average weight of the winning gallopers since 2000 has been a tick under 54kg. It's Somewhat won as a $31 chance last year and was carrying 55kg.  

The closest contenders to the 54kg this year are Endless Drama and Prized Icon (both 53.5kg), while Crack Me Up has been allocated 53kg. Humidor carries top-weight of 58kg, which is 1.5kg more than what Winx carted to victory in 2016. Tosen Stardom has 57.5kg, while Happy Clapper carts 57kg. 

Kementari and D'Argento are the three-year-olds in this year's race and the youngsters have been the most successful age group since 2000, accounting for seven winners, including Kermadec, who won the event in 2015. Two of those three-year-olds started the race as favourite. Kementari comes off a 3rd placing in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m) and prior to that he took out the Randwick Guineas (1600m). D'Argento was 7th in the Randwick Guineas before saluting in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m). 

Prized Icon is one of six four-year-olds in the race and, interestingly, horses belonging to that age bracket have won only three Doncaster's since 2000. They were Sacred Falls (2014), Private Steer (2004) and Grand Armee (2003). 

Nine winners have had their last start in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), and four have completed the double. Winx achieved that in 2016, as did Vision And Power (2009), Haradasun (2007) and Racing To Win (2006). 

This year, Winx destroyed her rivals in the George Ryder but won't be racing in the Doncaster. Happy Clapper finished runner up behind the mighty mare.  

It is interesting to note that the big fields have played into the hands of horses drawn out, as 12 of the 18 winners since the year 2000 have drawn Barrier 10 or wider. Of the key runners this year, Tom Melbourne has drawn 14, while D'Argento is in 15. 

Selection based on trends

Kementari can salute as the favourite, emulating the likes of other three-year-olds since 2000 in Haradasun and Racing To Win

Change State

*Over 18s only. Wagering requirements apply. State exclusions apply to some offers. Exc. NSW, SA, WA & VIC. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

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