Thousand Guineas Tips - Thrilling finish likely in fillies’ Group 1

  • Thrillster put in best Guineas trial last start but did it flatten her?
Smart Melody wins the Thousand Guineas Prelude from Thrillster

Reluctantly, I must go against a filly that I’ve been keen of the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) for some time now. 

I backed the Phillip Stokes-trained Music Bay at odds of $101 and $26 a few months back, and after shortening to second favourite following her impressive first-up run, she has drifted after a disappointing last start effort where she was found to be lame – hopefully she can bounce back.

However, I can’t tip a horse on ‘hopefully’ no matter how much talent she showed previously, and I can only go on what they have shown to date. 

Smart Melody is unbeaten in five starts and is a worthy favourite, but there is a concern with her running a strong mile.

There were two eye-catching runs behind Smart Melody in the Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) with Thrillster and El Dorado Dreaming running on strongly to fill the placings.

But coming back to Music Bay, it was her run that leads me to Thrillster being the horse to beat.

Music Bay settled three wide and was following Asharani while Cristal Eyes settled behind Music Bay.

Of those horses in the three wide line, Asharani dropped out to finish 13 lengths away while Cristal Eyes was tailed off 17 lengths last. 

I think that adds credibility to the run of Music Bay who battled on to finish 4.5 lengths from Smart Melody. 

But it was Thrillster that was caught four wide and it did it tougher than any other runner as she covered 10m more ground than the winner whilst also covering 4m more than any other filly in the race.

Despite the extremely tough run, she kept coming in the straight and got within a length of Smart Melody.

The main concern is how much that run took out of her, but if she’s recovered well enough to compete at her best again, I have no doubt her best is good enough to win.

Darren Weir’s Amphitrite has won all three races this campaign and has form around Thrillster having defeated Krone by 1.8 lengths while that filly got within half a length of Thrillster two starts back. 

But from barrier 15 of 15, Amphitrite will need plenty of luck, and she now finds herself at Caulfield after three wins on spacious tracks with long straights that suited. 

If Noel Callow can get in with cover from barrier 8, Thrillster should be finishing best to score from El Dorado Dreaming, Fiesta, Smart Melody, Amphitrite, Krone and Music Bay who should fight out the minor placings. 

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Thousand Guineas Tips - Thrilling finish likely in fillies’ Group 1

Reluctantly, I must go against a filly that I’ve been keen of the Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) for some time now.

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