Toorak Handicap Tips - Who does history point towards winning at Caulfield?

  • Rupert Clarke Stakes has provided plenty of winners
  • Single figure priced runners have the best record
  • Four-year-olds have a good record in the Toorak
More Joyous is a past winner of the Toorak

The Toorak Handicap (1600m) is one of the big races on what is a huge day at Caulfield on Saturday October 12 and the $500,000 affair gives the milers a shot at Group 1 glory. 

The time-honoured Handicap has been won in the past by the likes of More Joyous in 2010, Umrum (1999/2000), Gunsynd (1971) and Tobin Bronze (1967), while Land Of Plenty notched up victory last year. 

Picking a winner can be a tricky proposition in some respects, due to the conditions of the race but we have looked through the trends since the year 2000 and eliminated some of the guesswork for you. 

The ideal lead up form to the Toorak has generally been the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) held at Caulfield a fortnight earlier. 10 of the winners since 2000 had their final start in that lead up, including six of the past seven. 

Trust In A Gust (2014), Barely A Moment (2005) and Regal Roller (2004) completed the double. This year, Begood Toya Mother won the Rupert Clarke but won't be seen in the Toorak. 

Age Of Chivalry finished runner-up, while Widgee Turf and Streets Of Avalon were 3rd and 4th. So Is Bon (5th) and Cliff's Edge (6th) head a host of others to come out of that lead up. 

However, it is the recent Stocks Stakes (1600m) winner, Princess Jenni, that heads a wide open betting market for the Toorak ahead of Age Of Chivalry at $8.50 and Night's Watch at $9. Waging War is a $10 chance, while Mahamedeis ($11) and Fierce Impact ($12) head the rest. 

For fans of the likes of Fierce Impact, Tom Melbourne and Dyslexic, who all had their last start in Sydney, five winners have had their previous run in the harbour city including He's Our Rokkii in 2016, as well as King Mufhasa (2011) and More Joyous. 

For fans of some of the favoured runners, winners of the Toorak have usually started in single figure odds. Tosen Stardom ($10 in 2017),  Show A Heart ($13 in 2001), Roman Arch ($21 in 2003) and Allez Wonder ($41 in 2009) have paid above $10 since 2000. 

Nine of the 19 favourites have won the Toorak since 2000 and the average winning price has been $8.70. 

Madison County carries top weight of 58kg this year. Topweights have generally fared well in the Toorak, especially in comparison to the Rupert Clarke. More Joyous, King Mufhasa, Solzenitsyn (2013) and Lucky Hussler (2015) all carted 58kg to victory when they won. Tosen Stardom carried top weight of 57.5kg in 2017. 

The minimum weight this year is 52kg and two winners have carried that to victory since 2000. Solzenitsyn picked up the first of his two Toorak wins with 52kg in 2012, while Allez Wonder also won with that weight. Five runners have been allotted 52kg this year. Three of those five are emergencies and connections will be hoping that they can sneak into the field. 

The average weight of the winning horses since 2000 has been 55kg. Amphitrite carries that weight this year. 

The Toorak has generally attracted big fields and this year’s edition is no exception. Drawing a good barrier can be crucial and 10 of the 19 winners since 2000 have drawn between 1 and 7. Land Of Plenty was good enough to win from barrier 18 last year. 

Four-year-olds have been more successful than any other age group and have won eight of the 19 editions of the race since 2000. Horses aged four this year include Madison County, Amphitrite, Age Of Chivalry, Princess Jenni and Twilight Run

Selection according to trends.

You could make a case for a number of these based on trends. I'm inclined to look to the Rupert Clarke based on trends and it is Widgee Turf that represents value at the each-way odds. 

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Toorak Handicap Tips - Who does history point towards winning at Caulfield?

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