Australian Guineas Tips, Betting Preview and Odds

Trent Orwin:

The Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m) sees the rematch between Alligator Blood and Catalyst at Flemington on Saturday, February 29 and provides you with a comprehensive guide to the race.

Australian Guineas Final Field and Barrier Draw

The final field and barrier draw for the Australian Guineas:

1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD David Vandyke – Ryan Maloney (2) 56.5kg
2. DALASAN Leon Macdonald & Andrew Gluyas – Jamie Kah (3) 56.5kg
3. ALABAMA EXPRESS Michael Moroney – Michael Dee (6) 56.5kg
4. CATALYST (NZ) Clayton Chipperfield – TBA (4) 56.5kg
5. SOUL PATCH Ken Keys – Craig Williams (1) 56.5kg
6. SUPERSTORM Grant & Alana Williams – William Pike (7) 56.5kg
7. CHENIER Anthony Freedman – Damien Oliver (5) 56.5kg
8. COMMODUS Mark Sues – Ethan Brown (8) 56.5kg

Australian Guineas Odds

Catalyst and Alligator Blood head the market for the Australian Guineas at BetEasy.

Catalyst $2.50
Alligator Blood $3.10
Alabama Express $6.50
Chenier $7.00
Superstorm $15
Dalasan $16
Soul Patch $26
Commodus $151

Australian Guineas Tips

While most are split between Alligator Blood and Catalyst, and a few others are on the ‘Chenier train’ or Alabama Express, I’m looking outside the obvious and going for the Perth gelding Superstorm.

He’s the only horse to have ever broken 11 seconds (10.94) for his final furlong, and he did it over 1600m when 5th in the WA Guineas.

The son of Sebring settled near the rear and had to dive back to the inside late in the straight where he rattled home to be beaten less than a length but was in front of the field 20m past the post.

They went 10 lengths slower than BM to the 600m in the WA Guineas and Superstorm wasn’t suited coming from the rear.

First-up this time in, he posted a new personal best going 9.7 lengths quicker than BM over 1500m at Ascot.

He went 5.3 lengths quicker to the 600m mark and 4.4 lengths quicker in the final 600m.

That early speed is far superior to that we saw in the CS Hayes Stakes where Alligator Blood led at a ‘Very Slow’ tempo going below BM to the 600m.

In the past four years, the Australian Guineas has been run between 5.5 and 12 lengths above BM to the 600m.

If the race is run at its usual tempo, I can see Superstorm settling four lengths off the pace and that should give him every chance to run on and swoop over the top of them.