Melbourne Cup 2021 Tips & Predictions

Melbourne Cup Tips

Expert tips and predictions for the 2021 Melbourne Cup, live from Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday November 2.

Read on below to see our expert betting tips for the 2021 Melbourne Cup.

Melbourne Cup Tips 2021

The race that stops a nation takes place on Tuesday, 2 November 2021, at the customary time of 3pm at Flemington Racecourse. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup, Australia’s most famous horse race, sees up to 24 runners compete over 3200 metres in a bid to etch their names in the history books.

The 2021 Melbourne Cup will be slightly different from previous years. Due to the introduction of stricter veterinary checks on top of ongoing coronavirus restrictions, there have been fewer international entries. But there will certainly still be global interest and some notable overseas participants in one of horse racing’s greatest events.

A whopping $4.4m AUD of the over $8m prize fund is on offer to the winner, and the Melbourne Cup is the second richest race in Australia, only behind The Everest. The victor will be celebrated all over the country and become a household name for years to come. And 2021 promises to be another exhilarating renewal that’s not to be missed.

Despite favourites having a less-than-stellar record at the Melbourne Cup throughout history, it’s impossible to go past Incentivise – especially in this edition, where there are less overseas entries than usual.

Incentivise had a massive Queensland autumn and winter, with his last four wins coming by a combined margin of 37 lengths. He emerged triumphant at the Tatts Cup at Eagle Farm by a whopping 12 lengths. There’s also form for Tatts Cup winners taking out the Melbourne Cup, with Vow and Declare saluting in both in 2019.

Since joining the Peter Moody stable in Melbourne, Incentivise has prevailed at the Makybe Diva Stakes, Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup. Despite being penalised 1.5kg after the Caulfied Cup, he appears to have opposition covered for the Melbourne Cup and barrier 16 shouldn’t be a worry either.

The likes of Twilight Payment, Spanish Mission, Tralee Rose, Very Ellegant and Persan can’t be discounted, but Incentivise went 14.4 lengths quicker than the normal benchmark for the Caulfied Cup and ended up winning by four lengths. He has been going from strength to strength and if he stays true to current form, Incentivise will be extremely tough to beat.

Melbourne Cup Roughie Tips

While Incentivise certainly deserves favouritism, it is worth nothing that only 34 out of 150 favourites have won the Melbourne Cup for a strike rate of 22.6 per cent.

With that in mind, it’s always worth getting behind some roughies. We like a couple for the 2021 Melbourne Cup: Verry Eleegant & Persan.

Very Elleegant was the fastest horse in the last 600m of last year’s Melbourne Cup to finish seventh, while she also flew home at conclusion of this year’s Cox Plate. All signs point to her peaking for the Melbourne Cup.

Persan meanwhile is sensational value. He finished third to Incentivise at the Caulfield Cup and was pushed too far back in last year’s Melbourne Cup before ending up in fifth. Persan ran the quickest in that race from 1600m to 600m, so if he can get himself into a better position this time, he should be there or thereabouts come the finish line.

Melbourne Cup Quinella Tips

To land the Quinella, you need to successfully back the first two horses past the post. The payout is usually smaller than the Trifecta (first three) and First Four, but your chances of winning are higher. We will provide our Quinella tips when the final field and barrier draw is confirmed.

Placing Selections
1 Twilight Payment (1), Incentivise (2), Spanish Mission (3)
2 Twilight Payment (1), Incentivise (2), Spanish Mission (3), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
Cost $12 for 100%

Melbourne Cup Trifecta Tips

There is always a massive amount of cash up for grabs in the Trifecta pool and the 2021 Melbourne Cup will be no different. To win a share of the money pool, you need to back the first three horses in order. We will release our Melbourne Cup Trifecta tips when the final field and barrier draw are revealed.

Placing Selections
1 Incentivse (2)
2 Twilight Payment (1), Spanish Mission (3), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
3 Twilight Payment (1), Spanish Mission (3), Verry Elleegant (4), Persan (12), Pondus (15), Grand Promenade (16), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
Cost $28 for 100%

Melbourne Cup First Four Tips

Over $1 million has been on offer in previous Melbourne Cups, so it is most certainly worth having a little something on the First Four. Every year someone lands the First Four, so there’s no reason it can’t be you in 2021!

Placing Selections
1 Incentivise (2)
2 Twilight Payment (1), Spanish Mission (3), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
3 Twilight Payment (1), Spanish Mission (3), Verry Elleegant (4), Persan (12), Pondus (15), Grand Promenade (16), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
4 Twilight Payment (1), Spanish Mission (3), Verry Elleegant (4), Persan (12), Pondus (15), Grand Promenade (16), Tralee Rose (21), Great House (23)
Cost $168 for 100%

Melbourne Cup at Flemington

Date Tuesday, 2 November, 2021
Track Flemington Racecourse
Distance 3200m
Class Group 1
Race Type Handicap
Prize Money $8.0  million
Age 3YO and Upwards


Make Smarter Bets on Melbourne Cup Horses

Melbourne Cup Tips – The stamina-laden test over 3200 metres provides a stern challenge for any horse. So naturally, some will be suited by the demands more than others, but by analysing past results, we can use those pieces of information to help us make smarter bets.

There are various races that trainers use to prepare their horses for a tilt at the Cup. The Caulfield Cup has been a decent springboard in the past, most recently with Vow And Declare finishing second in that contest before claiming victory at Flemington. The Cox Plate was where Green Moon and Fiorente competed before Cup glory. Lastly, both 2010 and 2011 Melbourne Cup champions Americain and Dunaden were successful in the Geelong Cup a couple of weeks earlier.

Even though it’s a long race, positioning can still be essential. Getting trapped on the inside can be a real problem as the race begins to unfold, and that is backed up by 15 of the last 17 winners being drawn in barrier 5 or higher. Without looking at the numbers, a wide draw wouldn’t initially be thought of as the ideal place to be. However, being drawn wide certainly isn’t the worst place to be, with the 2016, 2018, and 2019 winners coming out of barriers 17, 19, and 21, respectively.

Stepping up in distance has been a key factor to look out for in previous Melbourne Cup winners, as 18 of the last 20 winners raced between 2000 metres and 2500 metres last time out.

It can be challenging for horses to carry a considerable weight to glory over this marathon distance. The last runner to win carrying over 56.5kg was the incredible Makybe Diva back in 2005. In the past decade, the average winning weight is between 54kg – 55kg, so not too heavy, but also not too light either.

Speaking of Makybe Diva, she was the last mare to win the Melbourne Cup, and mares or fillies have claimed 16 victories. And when it comes to age, over 50% of winners have been 4 or 5-year-olds, so in general, that’s the age group to be looking out for.

Where to Bet on The Melbourne Cup

If you’re betting each way on the Melbourne Cup, some bookies offer extra places, so it’s good to keep an eye on how many places each bookmaker is offering. Our Melbourne Cup tips will always be taken from the bookies with the best odds at the time of writing. Plenty of bookies also provide the ability to live stream the big race free of charge, and the ones listed below offer some of the best Melbourne Cup odds and promotions.

Sportsbet

Before you place your bets, be sure to check out the Speed Maps to see where horses are predicted to be in the early portion of the race. Then, use the “Flucs” feature on the racecard to see what horses are hot in the betting and attracting market support – the more flames you see, the bigger the market move. Plus, after the jump, you can bet live on the Melbourne Cup with Sportsbet.

Neds

You can live stream the big race on Neds and be able to take advantage of the different markets they offer. Same Race Multi allows you to have a crack at picking the horses to finish in the first 4, in a variety of different orders. With their Blended feature, you can back multiple runners from the same race under a single fixed win price.

Ladbrokes

As well live streaming and the abundance of different bet types on offer, Ladbrokes have a handy “Speedmap” feature, which shows the likely position of each horse in the early part of the race.

Unibet

If you place a bet on the Melbourne Cup with Unibet, but the starting price is larger than the odds you took, you get a guarantee that if your bet wins, you get paid out at the starting price.

Where to Watch The Melbourne Cup Live

If you place a bet on the Melbourne Cup, there’s a good chance you can watch the race on the bookmakers’ website. But don’t worry if you can’t as there are plenty of other opportunities, so you don’t miss a second of the action! Channel 10 will be broadcasting the event, or if you can’t access a TV, you can catch it on racing.com!

If you’re outside of Australia, you could either watch the big race with your chosen bookmaker, use a VPN, and tune in to racing.com or watch all the action on Sky Sports Racing.

Given the 3200 metre distance of the Melbourne Cup, it’s also possible to bet on the race while it’s happening. So if you spot a horse that’s in the perfect position to strike, you can bet on it!

2021 Melbourne Cup Runners (likely field)

HORSE TRAINER WEIGHT
TWILIGHT PAYMENT JOSEPH O’BRIEN 58KG
INCENTIVISE PETER MOODY 57KG
VERRY ELEEGANT CHRIS WALLER 57KG
SPANISH MISSION ANDREW BALDING 57KG
AWAY HE GOES ISMAIL MOHAMMED 54.5KG
THE CHOSEN ONE BAKER & FORSMAN 54KG
EXPLOSIVE JACK MAHER & EUSTACE 54KG
OCEAN BILLY CHRIS WALLER 53.5KG
SELINO CHRIS WALLER 53.5KG
DELPHI ANTHONY & SAM FREEDMAN 53.5
JOHNNY GET ANGRY DENIS PAGAN 53KG
PERSAN MAHER & EUSTACE 53KG
KNIGHTS ORDER WATERHOUSE & BOTT 53KG
CARIF PETER & PAUL SNOWDEN 52.5KG
PONDUS ROBERT HICKMOTT 52.5KG
MASTER OF WINE TEAM HAWKES 52.5KG
GRAND PROMENADE MAHER & EUSTACE 52KG
MIAMI BOUND DANNY O’BRIEN 52KG
SHE’S IDEEL BJORN BAKER 52KG
PORT GUILLAUME BEN & JD HAYES 52.KG
FUTURE SCORE MATT CUMANI 51.5
FUN FACT BJORN BAKER 51.5
TRALEE ROSE SYMON WILDE 51KG
SIR LUCAN WATERHOUSE & BOTT 50KG
MOSH MUSIC ARCHIE ALEXANDER 50KG
GREAT HOUSE CHRIS WALLER 50KG
FLOATING ARTIST MAHER & EUSTACE 50KG
HASTA LA WAR SUE MURPHY 50KG


Melbourne Cup Past Performances

We have seen some memorable performances in the Melbourne Cup, with the most recent revelation being Prince Of Penzance winning at 100/1 in 2015. Not only was he the first horse to win at those odds since 1940, but Michelle Payne also became the first female jockey to win the race.

The most successful horse in the history of the Cup is Makybe Diva, who claimed a Melbourne Cup hat trick in 2003, 2004, and 2005. A genuinely astonishing feat that we likely won’t see repeated for a long, long time.

Last year saw Twilight Payment claim victory for the Irish Trainer, Joseph O’Brien. Remarkably, that was the second time he’s won the race in four years at the age of 27.

If recent years are anything to go, it’s worth noting who Kerrin McEvoy is riding. He won the race in 2016 on Almandin and 2018 on Cross Counter before finishing second on Tiger Moth in 2020.

Melbourne Cup Champions (Since 2000)

2000 Brew
2001 Ethereal
2002 Media Puzzle
2003 Makybe Diva
2004 Makybe Diva
2005 Makybe Diva
2006 Delta Blues
2007 Efficient
2008 Viewed
2009 Shocking
2010 Americain
2011 Dunaden
2012 Green Moon
2013 Fiorente
2014 Protectionist
2015 Prince Of Penzance
2016 Almandin
2017 Rekindling
2018 Cross Counter
2019 Vow And Declare
2020 Twilight Payment


Flemington Racecourse Track Guide

Boasting one of the longest straights in Australia at 450 metres, Flemington gives horses plenty of time to make up ground. So even if a horse is near the back of the pack turning for home, there is enough open space in front of them to get the lead before the finishing post. It is also very wide, leaving horses plenty of room to get out of any pockets.

The start is essential in any race, no matter the distance. With 888 metres from the starting gates to the first turn, jockeys have ample time to achieve their desired position in the Melbourne Cup without causing interference.

There is also a 1200 metre straight track at Flemington, commonly known as “The Straight Six.”

RELATED STORIES