Melbourne Cup 2023 Tips & Predictions

Melbourne Cup Tips

Expert tips and predictions for the 2023 Melbourne Cup, live from Flemington Racecourse on Tuesday November 7.

Our expert tips and predictions for the 2023 Melbourne Cup can be viewed below.

 

🏇 MELBOURNE CUP DAY TIPS 🏇

Race #

Top Tip

Odds 

Race 1 - Darley Maribyrnong Plate

ODINSON

$3.90
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Race 2 - Furphy Plate

POUNDING

$3.10
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Race 3 - TAB Trophy

AZTEC STATE

$2.35
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Race 4 - The Schweppervescence Plate 

STANISLAUS

$3.80
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Race 5 - The Maccas Run

 MR WATERVILLE $2.90
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Race 6 - MSS Security Subzero Handicap LOVE TAP $7.50
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Race 7 - Lexus Melbourne Cup ASHRUN $34
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Race 8 - Howden Desireable Stakes ROSE OF SHALAA $3.90
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Race 9 - The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes Coming Soon Coming Soon
Race 10 - Paramount+ Trophy Coming Soon Coming Soon
Odds correct at time of writing


Melbourne Cup Tips 2023

The race that stops a nation takes place on Tuesday 7 November 2023, at the customary time of 3pm at Flemington Racecourse. The Group 1 Melbourne Cup, Australia’s most famous horse race, sees up to 24 runners compete over 3200 metres in a bid to etch their names in the history books.

ASHRUN is definitely one stayer to keep an eye on and represents fantastic value at $34 with Dabble at the time of writing. After missing over 1,000 days of racing with various injuries, Ashrun has put together a very solid comeback, finishing seventh over 1700m at Flemington before flying home along the straight to come sixth in the Bart Cummings (2520m). Ashrun then secured his Melbourne Cup status with a second-place finish at the Geelong Cup (2400m).

Finding a Melbourne Cup winner means finding a horse that can genuinely run 3200m – and Ashrun has been trending nicely towards this distance in the lead-up, while he’s also a proven competitor at this distance having finished 4.8 lengths from Twilight Payment in the 2020 Melbourne Cup – and he was forced to race three days earlier in the Hotham Handicap (2500m), which he ended up winning too. Ciaran Maher and David Eustace are very confident of a top six finish and if you can get into that position down the straight, you’re always a chance. With three-time Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy on board, Ashrun has ticked all the boxes as he prepares for what would be the ultimate fairytale comeback story on the first Tuesday of November.

Melbourne Cup Roughie Tips

It is worth noting that only 34 out of 152 favourites have won the Melbourne Cup for a strike rate of 21 per cent.

In fact, since 2006, only one favourite has won the Melbourne Cup (Fiorente at odds of $7.00 in 2013). Additionally, since 2006, only four favourites have finished inside the top four (So You Think in 2010, Fiorente in 2013, Hartnell in 2016 and Incentivise in 2021).

As you can see, it is certainly worth backing a couple of roughies at big odds and we’re keeping our eye on FUTURE HISTORY, who announced himself as an official contender following his dominant victory in the Bart Cummings.

Future History also finished third in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) and looks more than ready for 3200m come Tuesday. Future History has 13,000km under his belt in pre-race preparation and will be certainly be amongst the fitter horses in the field. Another horse in the Maher-Eustace stable, Future History will have as good a chance as any if he positions himself well coming into the straight.

Melbourne Cup Day Tips – Race By Race

Race 1 – Darley Maribyrnong Plate (1000 METRES) [10:45AM]

Race 2 – Furphy Plate (1800 METRES) [11.20AM]

Race 3 – TAB Trophy (1800 METRES) [12:00PM]

Race 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1000 METRES) [12:40PM]

Race 5 – Race 5 – The Macca’s Run (2800 METRES) [1:20PM]

Race 6 – MSS Security Subzero Handicap (1400 METRES) [1:55PM]

Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup (3200 METRES) [3:00PM]

Race 8 – Howden Desirable Stakes (1400 METRES) [3:50PM]

Race 9 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (1400 METRES) [4:35PM]

BEST BET COMING SOON.

Race 10 – Paramount+ Trophy (1400 METRES) [5:15PM]

BEST BET COMING SOON.

Melbourne Cup Quinella Tips

To land the Quinella, you need to successfully back the first two horses past the post. The payout is usually smaller than the Trifecta (first three) and First Four, but your chances of winning are higher. We will provide our Quinella tips when the final field and barrier draw is confirmed.

Placing Selections
1 3, 5, 11, 18, 21
2 3, 5, 11, 18, 21
Cost $20 for 100%

Melbourne Cup Trifecta Tips

There is always a massive amount of cash up for grabs in the Trifecta pool and the 2023 Melbourne Cup will be no different. To win a share of the money pool, you need to back the first three horses in order. We will release our Melbourne Cup Trifecta tips when the final field and barrier draw are revealed.

Placing Selections
1 3, 5, 11, 18, 21
2 3, 5, 11, 18, 21
3 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 18, 21
Cost $140 for 100%

Melbourne Cup First Four Tips

Over $1 million has been on offer in previous Melbourne Cups, so it is most certainly worth having a little something on the First Four. Every year someone lands the First Four, so there’s no reason it can’t be you in 2023!

Placing Selections
1 5, 11
2 3, 5, 11, 18, 21
3 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 18, 21
4 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12, 18, 21
Cost $336 for 100% or $33.60 for 10%

Melbourne Cup 2023 Final Field

No Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight
1 GOLD TRIP (FR) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace James McDonald 2 58.5kg
2 ALENQUER (FR) Michael Moroney Damien Oliver 9 56.5kg
3 WITHOUT A FIGHT (IRE) Anthony & Sam Freedman Mark Zahra 16 56.5kg
4 BREAKUP (JPN) Tatsuya Yoshioka Kohei Matsuyama 18 55kg
5 VAUBAN (FR) Willie Mullins Ryan Moore 3 55kg
6 SOULCOMBE (GB) Chris Waller Joao Moreira 4 53.5kg
7 ABSURDE (FR) Willie Mullins Zac Purton 8 53kg
8 RIGHT YOU ARE Ciaron Maher & David Eustace John Allen 15 53kg
9 VOW AND DECLARE Danny O’Brien Billy Egan 19 53kg
10 CLEVELAND (IRE) Kris Lees Michael Dee 23 52kg
11 ASHRUN (FR) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Kerrin McEvoy 11 51.5kg
12 DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (NZ) Phillip Stokes Daniel Stackhouse 12 51.5kg
13 OKITA SOUSHI (IRE) Joseph O’Brien Dylan Gibbons (a) 20 51.5kg
14 SHERAZ (FR) Chris Waller Beau Mertens 22 51.5kg
15 LASTOTCHKA (FR) Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) Craig Williams 21 51kg
16 MAGICAL LAGOON (IRE) Chris Waller Mark Du Plessis 7 51kg
17 MILITARY MISSION (IRE) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Ms Rachel King 5 51kg
18 SERPENTINE (IRE) Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott Jye McNeil 1 51kg
19 VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (NZ) Liam Howley Craig Newitt 6 51kg
20 MORE FELONS (IRE) Chris Waller Ms Jamie Kah 24 50.5kg
21 FUTURE HISTORY (GB) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Hollie Doyle 13 50kg
22 INTERPRETATION (IRE) Ciaron Maher & David Eustace Teo Nugent 17 50kg
23 KALAPOUR (IRE) Kris Lees Zac Lloyd (a) 14 50kg
24 TRUE MARVEL (FR) Matthew Smith Ben Thompson 10 50kg

Melbourne Cup at Flemington

Date Tuesday, 7 November, 2023
Track Flemington Racecourse
Distance 3200m
Class Group 1
Race Type Handicap
Prize Money $8.0  million
Age 3YO and Upwards


Make Smarter Bets on Melbourne Cup Horses

Melbourne Cup Tips – The stamina-laden test over 3200 metres provides a stern challenge for any horse. So naturally, some will be suited by the demands more than others, but by analysing past results, we can use those pieces of information to help us make smarter bets.

There are various races that trainers use to prepare their horses for a tilt at the Cup. The Caulfield Cup has been a decent springboard in the past, most recently with Vow And Declare finishing second in that contest before claiming victory at Flemington. The Cox Plate was where Green Moon and Fiorente competed before Cup glory. Lastly, both 2010 and 2011 Melbourne Cup champions Americain and Dunaden were successful in the Geelong Cup a couple of weeks earlier.

Even though it’s a long race, positioning can still be essential. Getting trapped on the inside can be a real problem as the race begins to unfold, and that is backed up by 15 of the last 17 winners being drawn in barrier 5 or higher. Without looking at the numbers, a wide draw wouldn’t initially be thought of as the ideal place to be. However, being drawn wide certainly isn’t the worst place to be, with the 2016, 2018, and 2019 winners coming out of barriers 17, 19, and 21, respectively.

Stepping up in distance has been a key factor to look out for in previous Melbourne Cup winners, as 18 of the last 20 winners raced between 2000 metres and 2500 metres last time out.

It can be challenging for horses to carry a considerable weight to glory over this marathon distance. The last runner to win carrying over 56.5kg was the incredible Makybe Diva back in 2005. In the past decade, the average winning weight is between 54kg – 55kg, so not too heavy, but also not too light either.

Speaking of Makybe Diva, she was the last mare to win the Melbourne Cup, and mares or fillies have claimed 16 victories. And when it comes to age, over 50% of winners have been 4 or 5-year-olds, so in general, that’s the age group to be looking out for.

Where to Bet on The Melbourne Cup

If you’re betting each way on the Melbourne Cup, some bookies offer extra places, so it’s good to keep an eye on how many places each bookmaker is offering. Our Melbourne Cup tips will always be taken from the bookies with the best odds at the time of writing. Plenty of bookies also provide the ability to live stream the big race free of charge, and the ones listed below offer some of the best Melbourne Cup odds and promotions.

Neds

You can live stream the big race on Neds and be able to take advantage of the different markets they offer. Same Race Multi allows you to have a crack at picking the horses to finish in the first 4, in a variety of different orders. With their Blended feature, you can back multiple runners from the same race under a single fixed win price.

Ladbrokes

As well live streaming and the abundance of different bet types on offer, Ladbrokes have a handy “Speedmap” feature, which shows the likely position of each horse in the early part of the race.

Unibet

If you place a bet on the Melbourne Cup with Unibet, but the starting price is larger than the odds you took, you get a guarantee that if your bet wins, you get paid out at the starting price.

Palmerbet

A true blue Aussie bookie, Palmerbet offer some of the best odds in the country on the Melbourne Cup.

Where to Watch The Melbourne Cup Live

If you place a bet on the Melbourne Cup, there’s a good chance you can watch the race on the bookmakers’ website. But don’t worry if you can’t as there are plenty of other opportunities, so you don’t miss a second of the action! Channel 10 will be broadcasting the event, or if you can’t access a TV, you can catch it on racing.com!

If you’re outside of Australia, you could either watch the big race with your chosen bookmaker, use a VPN, and tune in to racing.com or watch all the action on Sky Sports Racing.

Given the 3200 metre distance of the Melbourne Cup, it’s also possible to bet on the race while it’s happening. So if you spot a horse that’s in the perfect position to strike, you can bet on it!

Melbourne Cup Past Performances

We have seen some memorable performances in the Melbourne Cup, with the most recent revelation being Prince Of Penzance winning at 100/1 in 2015. Not only was he the first horse to win at those odds since 1940, but Michelle Payne also became the first female jockey to win the race.

The most successful horse in the history of the Cup is Makybe Diva, who claimed a Melbourne Cup hat trick in 2003, 2004, and 2005. A genuinely astonishing feat that we likely won’t see repeated for a long, long time.

In 2021, Twilight Payment claimed victory for the Irish Trainer, Joseph O’Brien. Remarkably, that was the second time he’s won the race in four years at the age of 27. Very Ellegant was victorious last year.

If recent years are anything to go, it’s worth noting who Kerrin McEvoy is riding. He won the race in 2016 on Almandin and 2018 on Cross Counter before finishing second on Tiger Moth in 2020.

Melbourne Cup Champions (Since 2000)

2000 Brew
2001 Ethereal
2002 Media Puzzle
2003 Makybe Diva
2004 Makybe Diva
2005 Makybe Diva
2006 Delta Blues
2007 Efficient
2008 Viewed
2009 Shocking
2010 Americain
2011 Dunaden
2012 Green Moon
2013 Fiorente
2014 Protectionist
2015 Prince Of Penzance
2016 Almandin
2017 Rekindling
2018 Cross Counter
2019 Vow And Declare
2020 Twilight Payment
2021 Verry Elleegant
2022 Gold Trip


Flemington Racecourse Track Guide

Boasting one of the longest straights in Australia at 450 metres, Flemington gives horses plenty of time to make up ground. So even if a horse is near the back of the pack turning for home, there is enough open space in front of them to get the lead before the finishing post. It is also very wide, leaving horses plenty of room to get out of any pockets.

The start is essential in any race, no matter the distance. With 888 metres from the starting gates to the first turn, jockeys have ample time to achieve their desired position in the Melbourne Cup without causing interference.

There is also a 1200 metre straight track at Flemington, commonly known as “The Straight Six.”

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