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The Round of 32 delivered chaos worthy of a 48-team World Cup, with Germany and the Netherlands dumped out on penalties, Norway winning a knockout tie for the first time and reigning champions Argentina surviving a Cape Verde scare.
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The Round of 32 delivered chaos worthy of a 48-team World Cup. Germany and the Netherlands were both dumped out on penalties, Norway won a World Cup knockout tie for the first time, and reigning champions Argentina needed extra time to survive Cape Verde. For Australia, it ended in heartbreak — beaten by Egypt in a shootout (read our full Socceroos exit analysis). Now the tournament boils down to eight last-16 ties, and this is our match-by-match guide with the key form, head-to-head records, players to watch and where the betting value sits.
World Cup 2026 outright: who’s favourite now?
With the field down to 16, France head the outright market at around $2.80 after the most convincing group-and-R32 run of any side. Argentina are next around $4.50 despite their Cape Verde scare, with Spain (~$6) and England (~$9) leading the chasing pack. For the full market and our winner tips, see our World Cup 2026 outright tips. Odds are indicative and move constantly — confirm the current price with your bookmaker.
World Cup Round of 16 fixtures
- Sat 4 Jul: Canada v Morocco · Paraguay v France
- Sun 5 Jul: Brazil v Norway · Mexico v England
- Mon 6 Jul: Portugal v Spain
- Tue 7 Jul: USA v Belgium · Argentina v Egypt · Switzerland v Colombia
Canada vs Morocco
📅 Saturday 4 July · NRG Stadium, Houston
How they got here: Hosts Canada topped nobody’s expectations to reach the last 16, edging South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32 through Stephen Eustáquio’s stoppage-time winner. Morocco, semi-finalists in 2022, kept their knockout aura intact by beating the Netherlands on penalties after a 1-1 draw — they are yet to lose in normal time this tournament.
Head-to-head: Morocco lead the all-time head-to-head 3-0 with one draw across four meetings; the sides last met at the 2022 World Cup, Morocco winning 2-1.
Players to watch: Canada lean on Jonathan David (three tournament goals) with Cyle Larin a proven super-sub. Morocco’s threat runs through Ismael Saibari (three goals) and captain Achraf Hakimi flying forward from right-back.
Canada had never won a World Cup knockout match in their history until Eustáquio’s late strike against South Africa — and they have never beaten Morocco in four attempts.
The betting angle: Morocco are favourites around $1.75, with Canada out near $4.50. The knockout pedigree and the clean H2H sweep make Morocco the sensible side, but a partisan Houston crowd and David’s form mean the value thought is the double chance or backing the tie to go the distance — both R32 games here were tight.
Paraguay vs France
📅 Saturday 4 July · Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
How they got here: France are the form team of the tournament — a perfect group record and a 3-0 dismantling of Sweden in the Round of 32, with a goal difference of +12. Paraguay are the great survivors, springing the upset of the round by knocking out Germany on penalties behind a stubborn low block and a goalkeeper in inspired form.
Head-to-head: France have never lost to Paraguay in five meetings (three wins, two draws).
Players to watch: France have Kylian Mbappé (six goals) and Ousmane Dembélé (four) firing, with Michael Olise pulling the strings. Paraguay’s hopes rest on the creativity of Julio Enciso and, above all, a back line and goalkeeper that have made them desperately hard to break down.
Paraguay have never beaten France — and the most famous meeting between them, the 1998 World Cup last 16, was settled by Laurent Blanc’s golden goal, the first in World Cup history.
The betting angle: France are as short as $1.15, so the moneyline holds no value. The interest is in the handicap (France −1.5 or −2.5) and Mbappé anytime scorer; against Paraguay’s low block, the under and France-to-nil are the thinking angles.
Brazil vs Norway
📅 Sunday 5 July · MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
How they got here: Brazil have grown into the tournament, topping their group and brushing Scotland aside 3-0 in the Round of 32. Norway are the story — Erling Haaland’s late winner away to Côte d’Ivoire delivered the nation’s first World Cup knockout victory, and he has carried them almost single-handedly.
Head-to-head: Remarkably, Brazil have never beaten Norway — four meetings, two Norway wins and two draws, including a 2-1 defeat at the 1998 World Cup group stage.
Players to watch: Vinícius Júnior (four goals) and Matheus Cunha (three) lead a fluid Brazil attack. Norway are Haaland and the supply line: Erling Haaland has five goals in four games, fed by captain Martin Ødegaard.
For all their five-star pedigree, Brazil have never beaten Norway in four attempts across nearly four decades — one of the strangest hoodoos against any regular Brazilian opponent.
The betting angle: Brazil are favourites but shorter than the hoodoo warrants at around $1.80, with Norway out to $4.50-plus. With Haaland this hot and history on Norway’s side, the Norwegians on the win or the +handicap is the standout value lean, and Haaland anytime scorer is the obvious prop.
Mexico vs England
📅 Sunday 5 July · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
How they got here: Co-hosts Mexico rode the Azteca and its altitude to a 2-0 Round of 32 win over Ecuador, bouncing back from a group-stage wobble. England topped a middling group and edged DR Congo 2-1 in the last 32 — efficient rather than spectacular so far.
Head-to-head: England lead the all-time series comfortably (six wins from nine, one draw), and won the only previous tournament meeting.
Players to watch: Harry Kane (five goals) is England’s talisman, with Jude Bellingham the engine in behind. Mexico counter with Julián Quiñones (three goals) and the experience of Raúl Jiménez through the middle.
This is only the second competitive meeting the countries have ever had — the first was the 1966 World Cup, which England won 2-0 en route to lifting the trophy — and Mexico remain unbeaten in World Cup matches at the Azteca.
The betting angle: The tightest tie on the board: England around $2.40, Mexico near $3.10 with the draw in between. England edge it on quality and H2H, but 2,240m of altitude and a heaving home crowd compress that edge — Mexico’s home price and the draw both look big, and Kane anytime scorer is the safe prop.
Portugal vs Spain
📅 Monday 6 July · AT&T Stadium, Arlington
How they got here: Spain have been imperious — three group games without conceding, then a 3-0 Round of 32 win over Austria to stretch the clean-sheet run to four. Portugal qualified from their group without ever hitting top gear and needed a 2-1 win over Croatia to reach the last 16.
Head-to-head: One of football’s tightest rivalries: 41 all-time meetings have produced 18 draws, with Spain holding a 17-6 edge in wins. Portugal, though, beat Spain on penalties in the 2025 Nations League final.
Players to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal (four goals) is carrying the Spanish attack, with teenager Lamine Yamal the creative spark. Portugal counter with talisman Cristiano Ronaldo (three goals) and the range of passing from Bruno Fernandes.
Spain haven’t conceded a single goal all tournament — four matches, four clean sheets — the meanest defence left in the draw, in a fixture that has produced 18 draws in 41 all-time meetings.
The betting angle: Spain are favourites around $1.90. Given the draw-heavy history and Spain’s shutout form, the low-scoring markets and draw-no-bet Spain appeal more than backing a Spanish blowout — this rivalry rarely produces routs.
USA vs Belgium
📅 Tuesday 7 July · Seattle Stadium
How they got here: Co-hosts USA won their group and saw off Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32 — but lost Folarin Balogun to suspension after his red card in that game, a major blow up top. Belgium produced the comeback of the round, recovering from 2-0 down with seven minutes left to beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time.
Head-to-head: Belgium lead the head-to-head 4-1, and won the sides’ most recent meeting — a 2-1 extra-time epic in the 2014 World Cup last 16.
Players to watch: With Balogun banned, Christian Pulisic becomes the USA’s focal point. Belgium ride the momentum of R32 hero Youri Tielemans (a brace off the bench), Leandro Trossard (two goals) and Romelu Lukaku.
The last time these two met at a World Cup, in the 2014 last 16, USA goalkeeper Tim Howard made 16 saves — the most recorded in any World Cup match since 1966 — and still lost 2-1 in extra time.
The betting angle: A genuine pick ’em, priced around $2.55 each with the draw near $3.30. Some books opened the USA a hair favourite on home soil, but Balogun’s suspension is a real downgrade to their attack — that nudges Belgium draw-no-bet into value in a tight one.
Argentina vs Egypt
📅 Tuesday 7 July · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
How they got here: Reigning champions Argentina won their group but survived a huge Round of 32 scare, edging Cape Verde 3-2 after extra time with Messi among the scorers. Egypt reached the last 16 by knocking out Australia on penalties — and are the reason the Socceroos are watching the rest from home.
Head-to-head: The teams have barely any competitive history, with no meaningful head-to-head record to speak of.
Players to watch: It starts and ends with Lionel Messi, the tournament’s top scorer on seven goals. Egypt’s hopes ride on captain Mohamed Salah, who held his nerve to score the decisive penalty against Australia, and the pace of Omar Marmoush.
Messi leads the Golden Boot race on seven goals and, at 38, became the oldest player ever to score a World Cup hat-trick earlier in the tournament — while Argentina chase a feat no nation has managed since Brazil in 1962: back-to-back World Cup titles. Egypt, for their part, are in the knockout rounds for the first time since 1934.
The betting angle: Argentina are overwhelming favourites around $1.37, so there’s no value on the win. The interest is Messi anytime scorer or the Argentina handicap — though their leaky R32 (two conceded to Cape Verde) is a small note of caution.
Switzerland vs Colombia
📅 Tuesday 7 July · BC Place, Vancouver
How they got here: Switzerland won their group unbeaten and eased past Algeria 2-0 in the Round of 32. Colombia topped a group containing Portugal and edged Ghana 1-0 in the last 32 through a Jhon Arias strike — hard-working if not free-scoring.
Head-to-head: A rare pairing with negligible competitive history between them.
Players to watch: Switzerland’s leading man is a surprise — 20-year-old Johan Manzambi (three goals) — with the vastly experienced Granit Xhaka running midfield. Colombia carry the star quality of Luis Díaz and captain James Rodríguez.
The top scorer in this tie isn’t Luis Díaz or James Rodríguez — it’s Switzerland’s Johan Manzambi, whose three goals have quietly outscored every marquee name on the pitch, with the Swiss the only Group A side still unbeaten.
The betting angle: The closest of the Tuesday ties: Colombia slight favourites around $2.30, Switzerland near $3.10. The Swiss are unbeaten and defensively solid, so Switzerland draw-no-bet or the draw is a defensible value lean against a Colombia side that laboured past Ghana.
Where to bet on the World Cup Round of 16
Compare Round of 16 head-to-head, handicap and same-game-multi markets across Ladbrokes, Neds and bet365. For full reviews and the best World Cup promotions, see our best betting sites in Australia guide.
More World Cup 2026 coverage
- World Cup 2026 outright tips
- Australia’s World Cup exit — why the Socceroos went out
- Socceroos Group D deep-dive
- World Cup 2026 schedule & SBS TV guide
- World Cup 2026 hub · Soccer betting hub
Round of 16 FAQs
When is the World Cup 2026 Round of 16?
The Round of 16 runs from Saturday 4 July to Tuesday 7 July 2026, with eight ties across the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Who is favourite to win the 2026 World Cup?
France are the outright favourites at around $2.80, ahead of Argentina (~$4.50), Spain and England. France have looked the tournament’s most complete side.
Is Australia still in the 2026 World Cup?
No. Australia were eliminated in the Round of 32, losing to Egypt on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Egypt now face Argentina in the last 16.
What is the pick of the Round of 16 ties?
Portugal v Spain is the standout — a heavyweight Iberian derby — while Mexico v England at the Azteca and USA v Belgium shape as the tightest, most bettable contests.