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The dream World Cup semi-finals are set: France v Spain and England v Argentina. Our complete preview — road to the final, head-to-head, key players and best bets for both blockbuster ties, with Messi and Mbappé chasing the Golden Boot.
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Four teams remain, and the World Cup could hardly have asked for a bigger last four. France, the tournament’s form side and the only team yet to be taken to extra time, meet reigning European champions Spain in a rematch of the Euro 2024 semi-final. Then the defending World Cup holders Argentina — and a 39-year-old Lionel Messi chasing one last miracle — renew one of football’s fiercest rivalries against England. Below is our full read on both semis, with the latest odds from bet365, Ladbrokes and Neds.
World Cup 2026 outright: who’s favourite now?
France remain the team to beat and are clear outright favourites after a flawless run to the last four. Spain, England and Argentina are bunched behind them — separated by barely anything in a wide-open bottom half of the market.
| Team | Outright odds (bet365) | Semi-final |
|---|---|---|
| France | $2.50 | v Spain |
| Spain | $4.33 | v France |
| England | $4.50 | v Argentina |
| Argentina | $4.75 | v England |
World Cup semi-final fixtures
| Match | Kick-off (AEST) | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| France v Spain | Wed 15 Jul, 5:00am | AT&T Stadium, Arlington |
| England v Argentina | Thu 16 Jul, 5:00am | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
Both semis are live in Australia on Optus Sport (every match) and SBS (selected matches free-to-air). The final is on Sunday 19 July at MetLife Stadium, New Jersey.
France v Spain: the final that came early
A repeat of the Euro 2024 semi-final, and arguably the tie of the round. France have been the most convincing team in the tournament — five wins from five, all inside 90 minutes, and the competition’s most potent attack. Spain have been less spectacular but just as effective: three straight one-goal knockout wins built on control and clean sheets. Didier Deschamps’ pragmatism against Luis de la Fuente’s possession machine is the game’s central tension.
Road to the semi
| Round | France | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| Group | Won Group I (bt Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0, Norway 4-1) | Won Group H (Cape Verde 0-0, Saudi Arabia 4-0, Uruguay 1-0) |
| Round of 32 | 3-0 Sweden | 3-0 Austria |
| Round of 16 | 1-0 Paraguay | 1-0 Portugal |
| Quarter-final | 2-0 Morocco (Mbappé, Dembélé) | 2-1 Belgium (Fabían Ruiz, Merino 88’) |
Head-to-head
They have split their two most recent big meetings. Spain won the one that mattered most — the Euro 2024 semi-final 2-1, when a 16-year-old Lamine Yamal announced himself with a stunning equaliser before Dani Olmo settled it. Before that, France came from behind to win the 2021 UEFA Nations League final 2-1 (Benzema and Mbappé overturning an Oyarzabal opener). Mbappé has scored in two of his three career meetings with Spain.
Key players to watch
- Kylian Mbappé (France): tournament co-top scorer on 8 goals (level with Messi), scoring roughly every 65 minutes. Shrugged off a first-half penalty miss to score again v Morocco. The tie’s decisive weapon.
- Ousmane Dembélé (France): 4 goals, including the clincher against Morocco — France’s right-sided runner in transition. Playmaker Michael Olise leads the team for assists.
- Lamine Yamal (Spain): quiet on the scoresheet (one goal, no assists) but the man who broke French hearts at the Euros — always one moment from a decisive contribution.
- Pedri & Mikel Merino (Spain): Pedri is the midfield metronome that makes Spain tick; Merino, the quarter-final match-winner, is the late-arriving box threat.
Team news: France may be without midfield anchor Aurélien Tchouéméni (thigh); Mbappé carried a minor ankle knock but is expected to start. Spain’s Nico Williams is a doubt after only featuring off the bench in the quarter-final. Confirm the line-ups at kick-off.
How it shapes up & betting tips
This is possession versus transition. Spain will want the ball, build overloads out wide and probe through Pedri; France will happily cede territory and hunt the space in behind for Mbappé. France’s willingness to sit off is exactly what caught them out at Euro 2024 — but it is also how they win, and their attack is in ferocious form.
- Match result: France are $2.30 favourites, with the draw and Spain both $3.25. France to win is the lean; for a safer play, back France to qualify (they advance whatever the 90 minutes bring).
- Goals: both defences are excellent and the knockout scorelines have been tight — Under 2.5 goals and a cagey first half appeal in a game of this magnitude.
- Player props: Mbappé anytime goalscorer ($2.05) is the standout — the co-Golden Boot leader and France’s penalty taker. For a Spanish scorer at a price, Mikel Merino ($2.88 range) or Oyarzabal make sense; and a Mbappé 2+ shots on target line is worth checking on the board given France lead the tournament for shot volume.
England v Argentina: a rivalry renewed
History drips off this one. It is England and Argentina’s first World Cup meeting since 2002, and — remarkably — the first time Lionel Messi has ever faced England in his international career. Argentina are the defending champions but have lived dangerously in the knockouts; Thomas Tuchel’s England have ground out every win the hard way. The winner meets France or Spain in the final.
Road to the semi
| Round | England | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| Group | Won Group L (bt Croatia 4-2, Panama 2-1, drew Ghana 0-0) | Won Group J (Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0, Jordan 3-1) |
| Round of 32 | 2-1 DR Congo | 3-2 Cape Verde (a.e.t.) |
| Round of 16 | 3-2 Mexico (Bellingham 2) | 3-2 Egypt (from 2-0 down) |
| Quarter-final | 2-1 Norway a.e.t. (Bellingham 2) | 3-1 Switzerland (a.e.t.) |
Head-to-head: one of football’s great rivalries
Few fixtures carry this much baggage. The World Cup meetings alone are the stuff of legend:
- 1986 quarter-final — Argentina 2-1: Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” and, minutes later, his “Goal of the Century” on the way to lifting the trophy.
- 1998 Round of 16 — Argentina win on penalties (2-2, 4-3): David Beckham sent off, Michael Owen’s solo wonder-goal, England out.
- 2002 group stage — England 1-0: Beckham’s penalty and his redemption, sending Argentina home early.
This is the first time the great rivals have met at a World Cup in 24 years — and the first time Messi, in his final tournament, gets to write his own chapter against England.
Key players to watch
- Lionel Messi (Argentina): co-top scorer on 8 goals, including the first World Cup hat-trick of his career (v Algeria). Now the all-time World Cup top scorer and record appearance-maker, at 39 in his last World Cup. The tournament’s defining figure.
- Julián Álvarez & Lautaro Martínez (Argentina): Álvarez’s extra-time screamer and Lautaro’s late finish saw off Switzerland — Argentina’s cutting edge beyond Messi. Enzo Fernández drives the midfield.
- Jude Bellingham (England): the form player of the knockouts — braces in both the Mexico and Norway wins, arriving in the box from midfield.
- Harry Kane (England): the captain and penalty taker on 6 tournament goals, England’s reliable focal point.
Team news: England are stretched at the back — Jarell Quansah is suspended (red card v Mexico) and Jordan Henderson is out of the tournament, with Declan Rice a fitness doubt after the Norway game. Argentina report no major worries. Confirm line-ups at kick-off.
How it shapes up & betting tips
Argentina have leaned on Messi’s orchestration and late drama all tournament — comebacks against Egypt and extra-time escapes against Cape Verde and Switzerland. At 39, Messi roams into pockets rather than running in behind, so expect Argentina to sit deeper and strike in transition. England are grinding rather than dazzling under Tuchel, but Bellingham is carrying them — the concern is whether a patched-up defence and midfield can screen the space Messi wants without Rice at full tilt.
- Match result: the market rates it a near coin-flip — England $2.55, the draw and Argentina both $3.00. England are marginal favourites to advance, reflecting their tie-going resilience against Argentina’s laboured knockout run.
- Goals: Argentina have conceded first in all three knockout ties and England have scored in every game — both teams to score has appeal, though a tight, low-scoring rivalry game that could go the distance is the base case.
- Player props: Messi anytime goalscorer ($2.20) is the headline play in his first-ever meeting with England, with Harry Kane anytime ($2.40) the England equivalent and Jude Bellingham anytime ($4.00) superb value on his knockout form. For the Messi involvement angle, a Messi 2+ shots on target line is worth checking on the board — he is Argentina’s chief shot-taker and dead-ball threat.
Bet of the semi-finals
For a single play, Mbappé anytime goalscorer ($2.05) is the most solid on the card — the co-Golden Boot leader, in the best form of any attacker left, and his side’s penalty taker. For the tournament-long punter, France at $2.50 remains the outright standout: the only team yet to break stride, and the most complete side on show. And if you want a slice of history, Bellingham anytime ($4.00) against Argentina is the value pick given he has scored in every knockout round.
Where to bet on the World Cup semi-finals
Compare head-to-head, to-qualify, same-game-multi and player-prop markets across Ladbrokes, Neds and bet365. For full reviews and the best World Cup promotions, see our best soccer betting sites in Australia guide.
More World Cup 2026 coverage
- World Cup 2026 quarter-finals review
- World Cup 2026 outright tips
- World Cup 2026 Round of 16 review
- World Cup 2026 schedule & SBS TV guide
- World Cup 2026 hub · Soccer betting hub
Semi-final FAQs
When are the World Cup 2026 semi-finals?
France v Spain is Tuesday 14 July (5:00am AEST Wednesday 15 July) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington; England v Argentina is Wednesday 15 July (5:00am AEST Thursday 16 July) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Who is favourite to win the 2026 World Cup?
France are the outright favourites at around $2.50, ahead of Spain ($4.33), England ($4.50) and Argentina ($4.75).
Have England and Argentina met at a World Cup before?
Yes — famously. Argentina won the 1986 quarter-final (Maradona’s “Hand of God”) and the 1998 last-16 tie on penalties; England won the 2002 group meeting through a Beckham penalty. This is their first World Cup meeting since 2002.
How can I watch the semi-finals in Australia?
Live on Optus Sport (every match) and SBS (selected matches free-to-air), from 5:00am AEST on both mornings.