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The US Open is the final Grand Slam of the year and the best-timed one for Australian punters — night sessions land around 9am AEST. Here's how we approach the markets, what decides matches at Flushing Meadows, and daily best bets once the draw is out.
US Open betting tips, odds and predictions. The US Open is the final Grand Slam of the year and the best-timed one for Australian punters — night sessions on Arthur Ashe land around 9am AEST. The 2026 tournament runs from Sunday 23 August to Sunday 13 September, with main-draw singles from Sunday 30 August. This is our home for US Open betting: how we approach the markets, where the value sits, and daily best bets through the fortnight.
2026 US Open: the tournament is under way, with the main draw having started on Sunday 30 August and the draw narrowing through week one. World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury, so Alexander Zverev is top seed and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz returns at No. 2 having not played since April.
Women’s final Saturday 12 September, men’s final Sunday 13 September.
Women’s final Saturday 12 September, men’s final Sunday 13 September.
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How we bet the US Open
Two weeks of best-of-five men’s tennis on a medium-fast hard court produces a fairly predictable shape, and our approach leans on it rather than fighting it.
The men’s title is a short-priced market — treat it that way. Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic have monopolised recent US Open titles, and genuine outsiders almost never break through in New York. Backing a 40-1 shot to win the men’s draw is a lottery ticket, not a bet.
The women’s draw is where outright value lives. Emma Raducanu won as a qualifier in 2021, and Sloane Stephens, Bianca Andreescu and Flavia Pennetta all broke through from outside the favourites. If you want a longshot outright, take it on the women’s side — the honour roll makes the case plainly.
Round-by-round beats outrights for most punters. Match markets, set betting and total games give you far more information per bet than a two-week outright, and let you react to conditions, injuries and the schedule.
US Open betting markets explained
| Market | How it works | When we use it |
|---|---|---|
| Tournament winner | Outright on the men’s or women’s champion. Open weeks before the draw. | Women’s draw for value; men’s only at a genuine price |
| Match winner | Pick the winner of a single match. | The staple — best information-to-risk ratio |
| Set betting | Predict the exact set score (men’s best-of-5, women’s best-of-3). | Heavy mismatches, where a straight-sets read is strong |
| Game handicap | One player gets a games start or deficit. | Lopsided matchups where the outright price is unbackable |
| Total games over/under | Total games in the match, over or under a line. | Big-server matchups (over) or clear mismatches (under) |
| First set winner | Winner of the opening set only. | Slow starters and players with injury doubts |
What decides matches at Flushing Meadows
The surface. Laykold, the hard court in use at Flushing Meadows since 2020, is medium-fast: it rewards aggressive baseliners and big servers, and punishes players who need time to build a point. Clay-court specialists routinely underperform here.
Heat and humidity. Late-August New York is brutal, and the early rounds are frequently decided by fitness rather than ball-striking. In best-of-five, a five-set first-round win can effectively end a player’s tournament two matches later.
The roof. Arthur Ashe has a retractable roof, so rain no longer causes the schedule chaos it once did — but a closed roof makes conditions faster and helps big hitters. Worth checking before an in-play bet.
Night-session drama. Ashe under lights is the loudest arena in tennis and favours players who feed on it. It is also the session Australians can actually watch live — see our Aussies at the US Open guide for the AEST timings.
The hard-court lead-in: where the form comes from
New York form is built in the four weeks before it, and the 2026 swing is now complete. The National Bank Open finished on 13 August and Cincinnati ended on 23 August. Ben Shelton defended his Montreal title, beating Brandon Nakashima in the final, and Iga Swiatek took Toronto with a 6-2 6-3 win over Elena Rybakina. Cincinnati then produced one result nobody had priced and one that was entirely on script.
- Arthur Fils won Cincinnati, beating Frances Tiafoe 6-3 1-6 6-0 for his first Masters 1000 title. He is the first French winner in Cincinnati since Guy Forget in 1991, and he arrives in New York as the No. 10 seed with the best possible timing. Treat the title with the usual caveat, though: it was won in a draw missing both of the two best players in the world.
- Coco Gauff won the women’s title, beating Jessica Pegula 6-2 6-4 for her second Cincinnati crown after 2023. Only Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka have won it more than once in the Open Era. She is seeded 4 at Flushing Meadows and the women’s swing tracks New York more closely than the men’s does, so this one carries real predictive weight.
- Jannik Sinner is out of the US Open with a right knee injury. It is the first major he has missed since Wimbledon in 2019, and it takes the world No. 1 out of a draw he reached the final of last year. That is the single biggest repricing event of the fortnight.
- Carlos Alcaraz is in, and defending. He has not played a tour-level singles match since Barcelona in April, having missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon with a right wrist injury, and he arrives with no competitive hard-court tennis behind him at all. He is seeded 2 and still ranked 2. Whether four months out matters over five sets is the central question of the men’s draw.
The practical use of the swing is pricing how far a player goes rather than who wins. Quarter-final and semi-final reaching markets, plus set-betting on the short favourites, are where lead-in form is most useful. We price weekly multis across the swing on our tennis multi tips page, and if you need somewhere to place them, compare the best betting sites for tennis in Australia.
The 2026 draw: seeds and where the value sits
The draw was made on Thursday 27 August. With Sinner absent, the men’s top eight reads Zverev, Alcaraz, Auger-Aliassime, Djokovic, Cobolli, Alex de Minaur, Medvedev and Shelton, with Fritz and Fils completing the top ten. Alcaraz opens against Roman Safiullin, with Jaime Faria or Jenson Brooksby to follow, and he has landed in the bottom half alongside Djokovic, so the two can only meet in the semi-finals.
That shape matters more than usual. A men’s outright market normally has two credible winners and a lottery behind them; this one has a top seed who has never won here, a defending champion returning from four months out, a 24-time major winner chasing a record 25th, and a Masters champion in form. It is the most genuinely open men’s draw at Flushing Meadows in years, and it is the first time in a long while that the semi-final and finalist markets are worth more attention than the outright.
De Minaur at No. 6 is the Australian angle and the best seeding he has carried into New York. Our full read is on the Aussies at the US Open page.
The women’s draw is led by Aryna Sabalenka, going for a third straight US Open title, from Rybakina, Pegula and Gauff. Swiatek is only the No. 8 seed, which is the most interesting number on either sheet. There is a ranking subplot too: the top four are all live for the WTA No. 1 spot, and Rybakina claims it simply by reaching the semi-finals whatever anyone else does. Victoria Mboko, the No. 15 seed, withdrew with a left knee injury.
Daily US Open tips
The draw is out and daily best bets run through the fortnight: match previews, value plays and the odd set-betting or handicap angle where the market is wrong. The opening rounds are under way and the draw thins quickly from here. Build across sessions with our tennis multi tips.
Where to bet on the US Open
Tennis is a deep market in Australia and the bookmakers differ meaningfully. bet365 streams selected matches to funded accounts and has the widest market list; Neds is strongest on set and game markets; Ladbrokes is the pick for in-play. Compare current offers in our best tennis betting sites guide.
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Exclusive 365AUCODE referral code: bet365 does not offer bonus codes in Australia and this referral code does not grant access to offers.18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
US Open betting FAQs
When is the 2026 US Open?
The 2026 US Open runs from Sunday 23 August to Sunday 13 September, with main-draw singles starting Sunday 30 August at Flushing Meadows, New York. The women’s final is Saturday 12 September and the men’s final Sunday 13 September.
What time are US Open matches in Australia?
Day sessions start around 1:00am AEST and night sessions on Arthur Ashe Stadium begin around 9:00am AEST — the friendliest schedule of any overseas Slam for Australians.
What is the best US Open bet type?
For most punters, match winner and total games markets offer better value than a two-week outright, because you are pricing a single match with full information rather than a whole draw.
Who are the US Open favourites?
The 2026 men’s draw is unusually open: world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out injured, Alexander Zverev is top seed, defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is back from four months out at No. 2, and Novak Djokovic is chasing a record 25th major. Aryna Sabalenka is going for a third consecutive women’s title, with Cincinnati champion Coco Gauff seeded 4. Check with your bookmaker for live prices, as we do not publish fixed odds here.
Can I watch the US Open in Australia?
Yes. ESPN via Kayo Sports broadcasts every match, and bet365 streams selected matches for funded account holders.
More US Open content
- US Open hub — odds, markets & live streaming
- Aussies at the US Open — De Minaur & betting angles
- US Open winners & results honour roll
- US Open prize money
- Australian Open · Wimbledon · French Open
- Tennis tips hub · Best tennis betting sites
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