Tonga vs Samoa Prediction & Tips: Rugby League World Cup

Tonga and Samoa meet in a sold-out Parramatta for first place on the Pools B and C table at the Rugby League World Cup. Our tip, the odds, the head to head and the named teams.

The game of the round, and the first sell-out of the tournament. Tonga and Samoa have both won twice and lead the Pools B and C table, and the winner finishes top. Samoa beat France 78-4 and PNG 64-6; Tonga beat England 30-12 and Lebanon 36-0. Samoa won the last meeting 34-6 in October 2025.

Below are our tip and the reasoning, the head to head, the named teams and what is at stake. Every match is on our Rugby League World Cup hub.

Match Details

Tonga vs Samoa Tips & Prediction

Our pick: Samoa to win. Samoa’s attack has been the best in the tournament outside Australia, with 142 points in two games, and they beat Tonga 34-6 the last time the sides met. Tonga beat a stronger opponent in England, but they were wasteful against Lebanon without Isaiya Katoa.

Best bet: Samoa +2.5 at the line (about $1.83). Bookmakers make Tonga slight favourites, so Samoa get a start in a game that could go either way. Tonga are stronger on paper with Isaiya Katoa, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Robert Toia and Tyson Frizell back, but the market has barely moved: Tonga were $1.70 on Monday and $1.73 once the teams were named.

The odds. Tonga are $1.73 head to head at Ladbrokes on Tuesday evening (27 October), after the teams were named, with Samoa $2.10. The line is Tonga -2.5 ($1.98) and Samoa +2.5 ($1.83), and the total is 45.5. Prices move with late team news, so compare them on the day.

Tonga vs Samoa Head to Head

This is one of the closest rivalries in international rugby league: 22 meetings since 1986, with Samoa winning 11, Tonga 10 and one draw.

Form at this World Cup

Tonga beat England 30-12 in Perth and Lebanon 36-0 at CommBank Stadium, where they made 13 errors.

Samoa beat France 78-4, their biggest World Cup win, then PNG 64-6 in Port Moresby, scoring six tries in the last 15 minutes.

Tonga vs Samoa Team News

Both teams were named on Tuesday 27 October. Coaches can still make changes up to an hour before kick-off, so check the late mail on the day.

Tonga: named team

Isaiya Katoa is back from his ankle injury at halfback, with Tui Lolohea moving to five-eighth. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Robert Toia and Tyson Frizell also return, Jason Taumalolo moves to prop and captains the side, and Talatau Amone is out. Named team: Lehi Hopoate; Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Tolutau Koula, Robert Toia, Jojo Fifita; Tuimoala Lolohea, Isaiya Katoa; Addin Fonua-Blake, Salesi Foketi, Jason Taumalolo (c), Haumole Olakau’atu, Siua Wong, Tyson Frizell. Bench: Soni Luke, Stefano Utoikamanu, Demitric Vaimauga, Taniela Paseka, Leka Halasima, Latu Fainu.

Samoa: named team

Samoa are unchanged in the starting 13. Jazz Tevaga returns on the bench and Deine Mariner (hamstring) is among the reserves. Jarome Luai and Junior Paulo are co-captains. Named team: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow; Brian To’o, Izack Tago, Stephen Crichton, Sualauvi Fa’alogo; Chanel Harris-Tavita, Jarome Luai (c); Francis Molo, Benaiah Ioelu, Junior Paulo (c), Connelly Lemuelu, Jermaine McEwen, Francis Manuleleua. Bench: Jazz Tevaga, Spencer Leniu, Shawn Blore, Ata Mariota, Clayton Faulalo, Ronald Volkman.

What Is at Stake

The winner finishes top of the Pools B and C table and plays the New Zealand v Fiji winner in Newcastle on Saturday 7 November. The loser will almost certainly finish second and play Australia in Sydney on Sunday 8 November. England can only catch Samoa if Tonga win and England have won big against PNG on Friday; they cannot catch Tonga, who beat them.

Tonga vs Samoa Betting Markets

• Head to head: the match winner, with golden point extra time if it is level at full time.
• Line: a points start for the underdog, usually the better market when the head-to-head price is short.
• Total points: over or under a set number of combined points.
• Try scorers: first, last and anytime try scorer markets on both squads.
• Same game multi: a result, margin and try scorers in one bet. See our same game multi guide.

Compare prices across our best NRL betting sites, which all price the World Cup.

Tonga vs Samoa FAQs

When is Tonga vs Samoa at the Rugby League World Cup?

Sunday 1 November 2026 at CommBank Stadium in Parramatta, kicking off at 8:05pm AEDT.

What is at stake in Tonga vs Samoa?

First place on the Pools B and C table. The winner plays the New Zealand v Fiji winner in the semi-finals; the loser is likely to play Australia.

What is the Tonga vs Samoa head to head?

Samoa have won 11 and Tonga 10 of their 22 meetings, with one draw. Samoa won the last one 34-6 in October 2025.

Who will win Tonga vs Samoa?

Our pick is Samoa, and our best bet is Samoa +2.5 at the line.

Where can I watch Tonga vs Samoa?

Live and free on Seven and 7plus in Australia.

More Rugby League World Cup Coverage

• England vs PNG tips
• New Zealand vs Fiji tips
• Australia vs Cook Islands tips
• Lebanon vs France tips
• Jillaroos vs Wales tips
• Australia 36-22 Fiji: result
• New Zealand 82-16 Cook Islands: result
• Rugby League World Cup hub: schedule, ladder and tips
• Results and ladder
• Schedule and TV guide
• Women’s Rugby League World Cup
• The final

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