The first tryscorer market is one of the most popular betting options in State of Origin and we’ve picked out a best and value bet for Game 3 of the 2021 series on Sunday night.
State of Origin Game 3 First Tryscorer Tips & Predictions
State of Origin free first tryscorer tips and predictions – read on below for our best and value bets for Game 3 this Wednesday night.
Best Bet: Tom Trbojevic – $9.50 best odds with Ladbrokes
Tom Trbojevic has been arguably the best player in the NRL since returning from a hamstring injury and he has the stats to prove it.
Tommy Turbo has scored 14 tries in just nine games this season and just as impressively, is ranked second behind only Cody Walker in the NRL for try assists with 16.
That’s a ridiculous 30 try involvements in just nine matches. It shows that Trbojevic is popping up all over the field in try-scoring positions, and when he touches the ball, things happen.
Trbojevic was on fire during Game 1 as NSW obliterated Queensland by 44 points, scoring the first try and bagging himself a memorable hat-trick.
The Manly star also scored a four-pointer as NSW produced a 26-0 shut-out of Queensland in Game 2.
Additionally, Trbojevic has scored a try in his last four Origin away games.
Turbo is the hottest player in rugby league at the moment and is as good a chance as anyone to score the first four-pointer on Wednesday night.
Value Bet: Josh Papalii – $51 best odds with Ladbrokes
Most of the time the first tryscorer in Origin can be a lottery, but that also means there’s great value to be found if you do get it right.
One player who represents excellent value is Queensland prop forward Josh Papalii.
While it’s true big prop forwards don’t usually cross for many tries, the same can’t be said for Papalii, who has scored 54 tries for the Raiders in the NRL throughout his career.
Furthermore, Papalii is no stranger to crossing the stripe in Origin.
Indeed, Papalii has scored a try in two of his last five Origin matches, which is an excellent strike rate for a prop.
Papalii will be in the starting team, which is essential when trying to pick a first tryscorer, while Queensland will be determined to get on front foot early as they look to redeem themselves from woeful performances in Game 1 and 2.
Of course it’s a long shot, but we wouldn’t be surprised to see Papalii barging over from close range for the first try if Queensland get some early ball in the NSW 20m zone.