Australia Cup Semi-Final Tips & Predictions

Melbourne Victory beat Sydney FC 2-0 and South Melbourne beat Lions FC 3-1 in the 2026 Australia Cup semi-finals. Both results and how our tips went.

Melbourne Victory are through to the final. Victory won SF1 2-0 at Jubilee Stadium on Wednesday 9 September, Keegan Jelacic scoring inside two minutes and an own goal from Jordan Courtney-Perkins settling it after the hour. It is Victory’s fourth Australia Cup final. They met South Melbourne in the Australia Cup final at AAMI Park on Saturday 10 October and lost 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw. Read the final result. South Melbourne came from behind to beat Lions FC 3-1 at Lakeside Stadium on Tuesday 15 September, substitute Bul Juach scoring a second-half hat-trick, to reach their first Australia Cup final and put a non-A-League club in the decider.

The Hahn Australia Cup is down to two, and the draw wrote the headline early: because Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory were paired together, the second semi-final between South Melbourne and Lions FC was always going to send a non-A-League club to the final. Six of the eight quarter-finalists were from outside the A-League and only two survived. Catch up on the quarter-final results, where our four predictions all came in.

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Australia Cup semi-final draw and dates

Semi-final Fixture When (AEST) Venue
SF1 Melbourne Victory won 2-0 at Sydney FC Wed 9 Sep, played Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
SF2 South Melbourne v Lions FC Tue 15 Sep, played (South Melbourne won 3-1) Lakeside Stadium, Melbourne

Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory

Prediction: Sydney FC to advance (our tip lost)

Result: Melbourne Victory won 2-0. Jelacic struck in the second minute and Courtney-Perkins turned the ball into his own net just after the hour. Our tip was Sydney FC and it lost: the venue edge we leaned on counted for nothing once Victory led inside two minutes.

The only all-A-League tie left, and it was at Jubilee Stadium, which is Sydney FC’s ground. Both got here the hard way: Sydney came through a 4-2 win over Brisbane Roar in the Round of 16, while Melbourne Victory needed extra time and a 3-2 shoot-out to see off Western Sydney Wanderers after a 1-1 draw. Victory have therefore already shown they can win an ugly cup tie, which is exactly what this is likely to be.

The case for Sydney is venue and the shorter route. The case for Victory is that a side which has survived penalties tends to arrive with less fear. On a neutral read this is close to a coin toss, so the draw-no-bet and over/under markets are more use than the outright head-to-head. Our lean is Sydney FC at home, without much confidence in the margin.

South Melbourne vs Lions FC

Prediction: Lions FC to advance (our tip lost)

Result: South Melbourne won 3-1. Jackson Hart-Phillips gave Lions FC a first-half lead at Lakeside Stadium, then substitute Bul Juach scored a second-half hat-trick. Our tip was Lions FC and it lost. South Melbourne went on to win the final on penalties against Melbourne Victory.

The tie that guaranteed a non-A-League finalist, and the better of the two on form. Lions FC have been the story of the competition: they knocked out Melbourne City 2-0 in the Round of 16 and then won their quarter-final 4-0 against North Sunshine Eagles. South Melbourne came through 2-1 against Preston Lions in an all-NPL Victoria tie and will have home advantage.

Four-nil in a cup quarter-final is the standout scoreline of the round, and Lions FC have already beaten an A-League club this campaign. South Melbourne’s route was tighter and closer to home. We will take Lions FC, with the caveat that South Melbourne at home in a one-off is exactly the profile that has produced most of this competition’s upsets.

How to bet the Australia Cup semi-finals

  • To advance rather than match result. Cup ties can go to extra time and penalties, and the “to qualify” market covers both; a 90-minute head-to-head does not.
  • Draw no bet. Worth using on Sydney FC v Melbourne Victory, where the sides are close and a draw after 90 minutes is a live outcome.
  • Totals. Cup semi-finals between evenly-matched sides trend low. The Lions FC tie is the one with a case for goals given their 4-0.
  • Non-A-League club to win the cup. South Melbourne reached the final and beat Melbourne Victory on penalties, so this market paid out.

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Australia Cup semi-final FAQs

When were the 2026 Australia Cup semi-finals?

Melbourne Victory won 2-0 at Sydney FC at Jubilee Stadium on Wednesday 9 September, and South Melbourne beat Lions FC 3-1 at Lakeside Stadium on Tuesday 15 September. Both kicked off at 7:30pm AEST.

Can a non-A-League club win the 2026 Australia Cup?

Yes, and one did. Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory were drawn against each other in the first semi-final, so the winner of South Melbourne against Lions FC was guaranteed a place in the decider. South Melbourne took it and beat Melbourne Victory on penalties in the final on 10 October.

Which A-League clubs reached the semi-finals?

Two: Sydney FC and Melbourne Victory, who met each other. Victory won 2-0 and lost the final to South Melbourne. Melbourne City and Macarthur FC went out in the Round of 16, and six of the eight quarter-finalists were from outside the A-League.

Who has been the surprise of the 2026 Australia Cup?

Lions FC. They beat A-League side Melbourne City 2-0 in the Round of 16 and then won their quarter-final 4-0, the biggest winning margin of the round.

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