NRL Round 25 Results: Highlights & Expert Analysis

Wests Tigers beat the ladder-leading Roosters 25-24 and the Warriors went top by a single point of differential. North Queensland gained ground on the bye, and Canterbury won by 30 and are still outside the eight.

NRL 2026: Round 25 in Focus

Round 25 rearranged the top of the ladder without changing a single points total at the summit. Wests Tigers beat the Sydney Roosters 25-24 at Allianz, fourteenth against first, and that one point dropped the Roosters from the top to third. The Warriors and Penrith both won, finishing level with them on 38 points, and the Warriors take first on a differential of plus 295 to Penrith’s plus 294. At the other end of the eight, North Queensland did not play and still gained ground. Our tips finished five from eight on the result. Game by game below, then the full ladder and what it means with two rounds to go.

Panthers grind out a Thursday win at AAMI

Penrith Panthers 22 def. Melbourne Storm 14

Penrith opened the round with a 22-14 win at AAMI Park, the sort of controlled away performance that had gone missing for a month. It moved them level on 38 points at the top and, as it turned out, within one point of differential of first place.

Our preview had Penrith to win inside two converted tries and that is precisely how it finished. Melbourne stay on 24 points and their finals hopes are now arithmetic rather than realistic.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Panthers vs Storm head-to-head record & tips →.

Broncos win in Canberra to spoil the Raiders

Brisbane Broncos 34 def. Canberra Raiders 30

Brisbane, sixteenth before the round and out of contention, went to GIO Stadium and won 34-30. It was the first genuine upset of the weekend and it ended what little remained of Canberra’s season.

We had Canberra by more than two converted tries, on the basis that a side with something left to play for at home against a minus-198 differential team was as clear as the round got. It was not. Brisbane climb to fifteenth.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Broncos vs Raiders head-to-head record & tips →.

Dolphins handle Parramatta at Suncorp

Dolphins 34 def. Parramatta Eels 16

The Dolphins did what a top-four side should do to a bottom-five side, winning 34-16 at Suncorp to hold fourth on 36 points. Parramatta’s differential slid to minus 199.

Our preview had the Dolphins by more than two converted tries and pointed at the scoreless defensive night they had produced against Manly a week earlier as the form line that would carry. It did. Tipped and landed, margin band included.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Dolphins vs Eels head-to-head record & tips →.

Sea Eagles thump Newcastle to stay in the race

Manly Sea Eagles 44 def. Newcastle Knights 24

Manly went to McDonald Jones and won by 20, which was the result their season needed. It lifted them to 26 points and, with a plus 66 differential, made them the best-placed side outside the top eight on for-and-against.

We took Newcastle inside two converted tries, noting that Manly had been held scoreless the week before and that bouncing back from that is hard. They bounced back by 44 points. Newcastle stay sixth but have now played 23 games to most rivals’ 22.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sea Eagles vs Knights head-to-head record & tips →.

Warriors go top with 45 at Accor

New Zealand Warriors 45 def. South Sydney Rabbitohs 26

The Warriors put 45 on South Sydney at Accor and took first place, finishing the round on 38 points with a plus 295 differential, one better than Penrith. It is the second week in a row they have scored 40 or more away from home.

Our preview had the Warriors to win inside two converted tries; they won by 19, so the result landed and the margin band did not. Souths stay seventh on 30 and are now level with the Cowboys.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Warriors vs Rabbitohs head-to-head record & tips →.

Bulldogs hammer the Dragons but stay ninth

Canterbury Bulldogs 44 def. St George Illawarra Dragons 14

Canterbury did everything asked of them, winning 44-14 to move to 28 points and lift their differential from minus 62 to minus 32. It was not enough, and the reason is the one we got wrong before the round.

We had Canterbury inside two converted tries and they won by 30, so the result landed and the margin did not. The Dragons finish the round last on minus 293.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Bulldogs vs Dragons head-to-head record & tips →.

Sharks see off the Titans on the Gold Coast

Cronulla Sharks 30 def. Gold Coast Titans 22

Cronulla responded to two upset losses with a 30-22 win at Cbus, holding fifth on 34 points with a plus 173 differential that is the third best in the competition.

We had the Sharks by more than two converted tries, calling it the week they respond. They did respond, by eight points rather than 13 or more, so the result landed and the band did not.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sharks vs Titans head-to-head record & tips →.

Wests Tigers beat the leaders by a point

Wests Tigers 25 def. Sydney Roosters 24

The story of the round, and one of the results of the season. Fourteenth beat first by a single point at Allianz on Sunday afternoon, and in doing so knocked the Roosters from top of the ladder to third. The Roosters had led the competition going into the weekend and finish it behind two sides on the same points.

We had the Roosters by more than two converted tries and treated them as a multi anchor. They were beaten by a side on 20 points with a minus 213 differential. It is the clearest reminder of the round that a short price in a dead-rubber week is a price, not a certainty.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Wests Tigers vs Roosters head-to-head record & tips →.

North Queensland Cowboys had the bye

The Cowboys were the only side out this week and it worked in their favour. An NRL bye is worth two competition points, so they moved from 28 to 30 without playing and held eighth place. Canterbury beat the Dragons by 30 and are still two points behind them.

NRL ladder after Round 25

 

Ladder implications

Three sides finished the round on 38 points: The Warriors lead on a plus 295 differential, Penrith are second on plus 294 and the Roosters third on plus 162. One point of for-and-against separates first from second.

The Roosters lost top spot without being caught on points: They went into the round leading and came out third, beaten by a point by Wests Tigers while both the Warriors and Penrith won.

North Queensland’s bye kept them in the eight: The Cowboys did not play and still moved from 28 points to 30, because an NRL bye is worth two competition points. They hold eighth on differential behind South Sydney, who are also on 30.

Canterbury won by 30 and are still outside the eight: Their 44-14 win took them to 28 points, two short of the Cowboys. Manly’s win lifted them to 26 with the best differential of anyone outside the top eight at plus 66.

Two rounds remain: The season runs to 27 rounds, so Rounds 26 and 27 will decide the last places in the eight. Newcastle and Canberra have played 23 games; everyone else has played 22.

Round 25 talking points

We got the bye wrong, and it decided the eight: Our Round 25 preview said North Queensland “cannot add to their total” while they sat out, and the FAQ said the same. That was wrong: an NRL bye is worth two competition points. The Cowboys went from 28 to 30 without playing, which is exactly why Canterbury’s 44-14 win left them two points short rather than level. The correction matters because it inverts the read we published: the bye protected the Cowboys instead of exposing them.

One point of differential separates first from second: The Warriors finish the round on plus 295 and Penrith on plus 294. With two rounds to go, a single converted try in either team’s remaining games could decide the minor premiership. In a season this tight, margin markets are not a side bet, they are the main event.

All four away favourites won: We flagged before the round that the betting shape was unusual, with Penrith, the Warriors, Canterbury and Cronulla all favoured on the road. All four won. The two upsets came in games where the home side was favoured.

Our round: five from eight on the result: Penrith and the Dolphins landed inside the margin band we set. The Warriors, Canterbury and Cronulla won but by more or less than we called. We were wrong on Canberra, Newcastle and the Roosters, and the Roosters miss was the expensive one for anyone who anchored a multi on them.

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