NRL Round 26 Preview & Predictions

Round 26 is the second-last of the regular season and three sides are level on 38 points, with the Warriors leading Penrith by a single point of for-and-against. The eight is unsettled and Canberra collect two points on the bye without playing.

Round 26 is the second-last of the regular season and the top of the ladder has never been tighter. Three sides are level on 38 points and the Warriors lead Penrith by a single point of for-and-against, so the minor premiership is likely to be settled on margins rather than results. Catch up on Round 25 results first, where Wests Tigers beat the ladder-leading Roosters by a point and dropped them to third.

The eight is still unsettled. South Sydney and North Queensland hold seventh and eighth on 30 points, Canterbury are two back, Manly are on 26 with the best differential outside the eight, and Canberra collect two points on the bye without playing. All three sides on 38 points are at home this week, though the Roosters have much the hardest game of the three. Here are our Round 26 predictions and head-to-head reads for all eight games; model the run home with the NRL Ladder Predictor, check the market on our NRL premiership odds page and confirm your side at NRL team lists.

Broncos vs Storm

Prediction: Storm to win by 1-12 points

Round 26 opens on Thursday night at Suncorp with Melbourne needing a win to keep any hold on the eight. The Storm are eleventh on 24 points, two behind Manly and four behind Canterbury, and with Canberra picking up two on the bye the maths gets worse if they slip. Brisbane are fifteenth on 20 and out of it.

The market has Melbourne at $1.64 and Brisbane at $2.15. Melbourne have lost three of four and were beaten at home by Penrith last week, but Brisbane’s season ended weeks ago and they have conceded 40 or more twice in a month. Suncorp keeps this closer than the ladder suggests: take the Storm inside two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Broncos vs Storm prediction & H2H record →

Sea Eagles vs Dragons

Prediction: Sea Eagles to win by 13+ points

Friday evening at 4 Pines Park, and Manly cannot afford anything other than a win. They are tenth on 26 points with the best differential of any side outside the eight at plus 66, and after putting 44 on Newcastle away they have the form to make the last fortnight interesting. St George Illawarra are last on 14 with a differential of minus 293.

Manly are $1.38 and the Dragons $3.10. The Dragons have produced two upsets in the last month, beating Cronulla and Wests Tigers, so they are not a free hit. But 44-14 at home to Canterbury last week was the truer picture. Manly need percentage as much as points and should get both.

Head-to-head: Sea Eagles vs Dragons prediction & H2H record →

Panthers vs Bulldogs

Prediction: Panthers to win by 13+ points

Friday night at CommBank, and both sides want it badly for different reasons. Penrith are level on 38 points at the top and one point of differential behind the Warriors, so every margin matters. Canterbury are ninth on 28 and need to win out and get help to reach the eight.

Penrith are $1.32 and Canterbury $3.25. The Bulldogs beat the Dragons by 30 last week and their differential is repairing, but they have lost to the top four all season. Penrith chasing a minor premiership by percentage is the worst possible opponent for a side needing an upset. Take the Panthers to win well.

Head-to-head: Panthers vs Bulldogs prediction & H2H record →

Titans vs Rabbitohs

Prediction: Rabbitohs to win by 13+ points

Saturday afternoon at Cbus, and South Sydney can go a long way to locking up seventh here. They are on 30 points, level with the Cowboys and ahead on differential, and a win puts real distance between themselves and Canterbury. Gold Coast are sixteenth on 18.

Souths are $1.32 on the road and the Titans $3.25. Souths were beaten 45-26 by the Warriors last week, which is no disgrace, and the Titans have not beaten a top-eight side in months. Take the Rabbitohs by more than two converted tries.

Head-to-head: Titans vs Rabbitohs prediction & H2H record →

Roosters vs Dolphins

Prediction: Roosters to win by 1-12 points

Our game of the round: third against fourth at Allianz on Saturday evening. The Roosters are on 38 points and were beaten by a point by Wests Tigers last week, a result that cost them top spot. The Dolphins are fourth on 36 and can climb into the top three with a win.

The Roosters are $1.52 and the Dolphins $2.40. This is comfortably the hardest assignment of the three sides on 38 points, which matters when the Warriors host Newcastle and Penrith host Canterbury on the same weekend. The Dolphins have won four straight. Take the Roosters at home, but this is a one-score game and the value is on the line rather than the head-to-head.

Head-to-head: Roosters vs Dolphins prediction & H2H record →

Cowboys vs Wests Tigers

Prediction: Cowboys to win by 13+ points

Saturday night in Townsville, and North Queensland are defending eighth place. They sit on 30 points after the bye, level with Souths and behind them on a differential of minus 78 that is the weakest in the top ten. Wests Tigers are fourteenth on 22 and have nothing to lose.

The Cowboys are $1.28 and Wests $3.60. Normally that is the end of the discussion, except Wests beat the ladder leaders by a point last Sunday. A side that can do that is not a certainty to roll over, and the Cowboys need percentage badly enough to chase it. Take the Cowboys to win well, with the caveat that the shortest price of the round belongs to a side with the worst for-and-against in the eight.

Head-to-head: Cowboys vs Wests Tigers prediction & H2H record →

Warriors vs Knights

Prediction: Warriors to win by 13+ points

Sunday afternoon at Go Media, and the Warriors are top of the ladder by a single point of differential. They have scored 40 or more in each of the last two weeks and are at home against a Newcastle side that has now played 23 games and was beaten 44-24 by Manly.

The Warriors are $1.28 and the Knights $3.50. Newcastle are sixth on 32 points and safe enough, which is exactly the problem: a side with little left to play for, away, against the form team of the competition chasing a minor premiership on percentage. Take the Warriors and expect them to keep scoring.

Head-to-head: Warriors vs Knights prediction & H2H record →

Eels vs Sharks

Prediction: Sharks to win by 1-12 points

The round closes on Sunday afternoon at CommBank. Cronulla are fifth on 34 points and protecting a top-five finish, having responded to two upset losses with a win at Gold Coast. Parramatta are thirteenth on 22 with a differential of minus 199.

Cronulla are $1.42 away and the Eels $2.70. Parramatta beat the Cowboys by two a fortnight ago and can score, and Cronulla have been upset twice in a month by sides they should have beaten. Take the Sharks, but inside two converted tries rather than backing another blowout.

Head-to-head: Eels vs Sharks prediction & H2H record →

Canberra Raiders have the bye

Canberra are the only side out this week and they still gain ground. An NRL bye is worth two competition points, so the Raiders move from 24 to 26 without taking the field, level with Manly and two behind Canterbury. Their differential of minus 65 cannot improve, which is the catch: any side that draws level on points passes them. But Melbourne, on 24, now have to win simply to keep pace with a team that is not playing.

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NRL Round 26 FAQs

When is NRL Round 26 2026?

Round 26 runs from Thursday 27 August to Sunday 30 August. It opens with Brisbane against Melbourne at Suncorp on Thursday night and closes with Parramatta against Cronulla at CommBank Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Which team has the bye in Round 26?

Canberra. An NRL bye is worth two competition points, so the Raiders move from 24 points to 26 without playing, which matters to Melbourne and Manly in the race for the eight.

What is the game of the round?

Sydney Roosters against the Dolphins at Allianz on Saturday evening. Third plays fourth, the Roosters are trying to recover top spot after losing to Wests Tigers, and the Dolphins can climb into the top three with a win.

Who can win the minor premiership?

The Warriors, Penrith and the Sydney Roosters are all on 38 points. The Warriors lead on a differential of plus 295, Penrith are on plus 294 and the Roosters on plus 162, so margins are likely to decide it. All three play at home in Round 26.

Who is still fighting for the NRL top eight?

South Sydney and North Queensland hold seventh and eighth on 30 points. Canterbury are ninth on 28, Manly tenth on 26 with a plus 66 differential, Canberra move to 26 on the bye and Melbourne are on 24. Two rounds remain.

Are there any away favourites in Round 26?

Three. Melbourne are favoured at Brisbane, South Sydney at Gold Coast and Cronulla at Parramatta.

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