NRL Round 26 Results: Highlights & Expert Analysis

The Warriors held first place by a single point of differential, the Dolphins went above the Roosters into the top four, and North Queensland's win over Wests Tigers settled the top eight with a round to spare.

NRL 2026: Round 26 in Focus

Round 26 did two things at once: it left the minor premiership as tight as it has been all season and it quietly ended the race for the eight. The Warriors beat Newcastle 46-32 in Auckland and Penrith beat Canterbury 24-10, so both finished the round on 40 points, separated by one point of differential, exactly as they were a week ago. Behind them the Dolphins won at Allianz to go above the Roosters. At the bottom of the eight, North Queensland’s win over Wests Tigers put them four clear of ninth, which with one round to play is enough. Our tips finished six from eight on the result. Game by game below, then the full ladder and what is still live.

Storm end Brisbane’s season at Suncorp

Melbourne Storm 46 def. Brisbane Broncos 20

Melbourne opened the round with their biggest score of the year, 46-20 at Suncorp, and it was the sort of performance that makes an 11th-placed finish look stranger than it already did. Their differential is plus 14, which for a side sitting outside the eight is the clearest statement of how narrow the margins have been.

We had the Storm to win inside two converted tries; they won by 26, so the result was right and the margin band was not. Brisbane finish 15th.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Broncos vs Storm head-to-head record & tips →.

Manly keep their faint hopes alive against the Dragons

Manly Sea Eagles 44 def. St George Illawarra Dragons 10

Manly did what they had to and did it emphatically, 44-10 at 4 Pines Park. It lifted their differential to plus 100, the best of any side outside the eight by a distance, and it is the number that makes their season so frustrating: Manly have the points profile of a finals team and 28 competition points.

Our tip was Manly by more than two converted tries, which landed comfortably. The Dragons stay 17th and their differential of minus 327 is more than 100 worse than any other side.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Sea Eagles vs Dragons head-to-head record & tips →.

Penrith hold their nerve against Canterbury

Penrith Panthers 24 def. Canterbury Bulldogs 10

Penrith won 24-10 at CommBank Stadium to stay level at the top on 40 points. It was not spectacular and it did not need to be; with the minor premiership resting on differential, a 14-point win was worth more than the scoreline suggests.

We tipped Penrith by more than two converted tries and got it by exactly 14. Canterbury drop to tenth and, with Manly ahead of them on differential, their season is effectively over.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Panthers vs Bulldogs head-to-head record & tips →.

Souths put 42 on the Titans

South Sydney Rabbitohs 42 def. Gold Coast Titans 22

South Sydney went to Cbus and won 42-22, a result that moved them to 32 points and made the bottom of the eight look a lot safer than it had a week earlier. Latrell Mitchell’s return had been the pre-match story and the scoreline suggests it mattered.

Our tip was Souths by more than two converted tries, which came in by 20. The Titans are 16th.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Rabbitohs vs Titans head-to-head record & tips →.

Dolphins go above the Roosters at Allianz

Dolphins 26 def. Sydney Roosters 12

The best result of the round. The Dolphins won 26-12 away at Allianz Stadium and swapped places with the Roosters, moving to third on 38 points with a differential of plus 152 against the Roosters’ plus 148. For a club in its fourth season, a top-four finish with a week to spare is a genuine achievement.

We tipped the Roosters to win inside two converted tries and were wrong, which was one of two misses on the weekend.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Roosters vs Dolphins head-to-head record & tips →.

Cowboys take care of the Tigers and seal the eight

North Queensland Cowboys 24 def. Wests Tigers 10

North Queensland won 24-10 in Townsville with captain Tom Dearden back, and the win did more than any other in the round: it took them to 32 points and put them four clear of ninth with one round remaining. That gap cannot be closed.

Our tip was the Cowboys by more than two converted tries, landing by 14. It is worth noting how they got here, because their differential of minus 64 is the worst of any side in the eight by more than 100 points.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Cowboys vs Wests Tigers head-to-head record & tips →.

Jett Cleary debuts as the Warriors stay top

New Zealand Warriors 46 def. Newcastle Knights 32

The Warriors won 46-32 at Go Media Stadium and held first place by the same single point of differential they took into the round, plus 309 to Penrith’s plus 308. The story of the afternoon was Jett Cleary, who marked his first-grade debut with three try assists, watched by his father Ivan and brother Nathan.

We had the Warriors by more than two converted tries and they got there by 14. Newcastle stay seventh on 32 points and, with the bye to come in the final round, they will finish on 34.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Warriors vs Knights head-to-head record & tips →.

Parramatta stun Cronulla and end their top-four hopes

Parramatta Eels 38 def. Cronulla Sharks 18

The upset of the round. Parramatta, 13th and out of contention, beat Cronulla 38-18 at CommBank Stadium with Tallyn Da Silva scoring twice. It ended Cronulla’s chance of a top-four finish, and coach Craig Fitzgibbon was blunt about it afterwards, saying there is a difference between playing not to lose and playing the way he knows his side can.

We tipped the Sharks to win inside two converted tries. It was our second miss of the round and the more expensive one.

For the complete statistical head-to-head, see our full Eels vs Sharks head-to-head record & tips →.

Canberra Raiders had the bye

Canberra did not play and collected two points, which leaves them 12th on 26 points, level with Melbourne and behind on differential. Their season is over.

NRL ladder after Round 26

#	Team	Played	W-L	Diff	Points
1	New Zealand Warriors	23	17-6	+309	40
2	Penrith Panthers	23	17-6	+308	40
3	Dolphins	23	16-7	+152	38
4	Sydney Roosters	23	16-7	+148	38
5	Cronulla Sharks	23	14-9	+153	34
6	South Sydney Rabbitohs	23	13-10	+83	32
7	Newcastle Knights	24	14-10	+42	32
8	North Queensland Cowboys	23	13-10	-64	32
9	Manly Sea Eagles	23	11-12	+100	28
10	Canterbury Bulldogs	23	11-12	-46	28
11	Melbourne Storm	23	10-13	+14	26
12	Canberra Raiders	23	10-13	-65	26
13	Parramatta Eels	23	9-14	-179	24
14	Wests Tigers	23	8-15	-226	22
15	Brisbane Broncos	23	7-16	-220	20
16	Gold Coast Titans	23	6-17	-182	18
17	St George Illawarra Dragons	23	4-19	-327	14

Newcastle have played one game more than the rest because they have taken two of their three byes. They have the bye in the final round.

Ladder implications with one round to play

The top eight is settled. Ninth and tenth are on 28 points and can reach 30 at most in the final round. Sixth, seventh and eighth are already on 32. Manly and Canterbury cannot get there, so the eight is South Sydney, Newcastle and North Queensland alongside the Warriors, Penrith, the Dolphins, the Roosters and Cronulla.

The top four is settled too. Cronulla are fifth on 34 and can reach 36; the Dolphins and Roosters cannot finish below 38. So the double chance goes to the Warriors, Penrith, the Dolphins and the Roosters, in some order.

The minor premiership is not settled at all. The Warriors and Penrith are level on 40 points and separated by one point of differential, plus 309 against plus 308. Both play in the final round: the Warriors host Manly and Penrith host Wests Tigers. On this margin, the winning margin decides it.

Round 26 talking points

A differential of one point for a minor premiership. Two clubs have played 23 games each and are separated by a single point of scoring difference. Whichever of them wins by more in the final round takes the J J Giltinan Shield.

The Cowboys are in on results, not on numbers. North Queensland make the eight with a differential of minus 64. Manly, who miss, are on plus 100. That is the widest such gap in recent memory and it is the strongest argument going for the people who want the NRL to look at how the eight is decided.

The Dolphins have a top-four finish in their fourth season. Beating the Roosters away to secure it is the sort of result that changes how a club is priced in September.

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