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AFL preliminary finals preview: Sydney v Fremantle and Hawthorn v Brisbane, with head-to-head records, season splits and the betting angles for both games.
Two games, two sudden-death nights, and a quirk worth noting before either bounce: both visitors are facing the side that beat the other visitor. Hawthorn knocked Fremantle over in week one and now host Brisbane, while Sydney beat Brisbane in week one and now host Fremantle. Catch up on the semi-final results, follow the draw on our AFL finals bracket, or read how the AFL finals system works if the five-week format is new to you.
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18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
Sydney vs Fremantle
Result: Fremantle 12.11 (83) def. Sydney 10.11 (71). Friday 18 September, SCG. Fremantle trailed by 28 points in the third quarter and kicked the last six goals of the match to reach their first Grand Final since 2013. Isiah Dudley and Shai Bolton drove the comeback. The head-to-head read below was written before the bounce.
The head-to-head
Sydney lead the series 4-3 across the last seven meetings, but Fremantle have won two of the three played at the SCG, including a one-point win in 2024. Three of the seven finished inside 12 points, so this is not a fixture that reliably produces blowouts in either direction. The full record, every result and the trends behind it sit on our Sydney vs Fremantle head-to-head page.
Form and the numbers
The two most recent data points point in opposite directions. Fremantle won the last meeting 111-73 at Perth Stadium in round 18, a 38-point margin. They then produced the worst attacking game of their season in week one, held to 40 points by Hawthorn, before swinging back to 120 against Geelong in the semi-final. A side whose last three scores read 111, 40 and 120 cannot be priced off a single average.
Season-long, these are the two most complete teams left. Fremantle finished the home-and-away rounds 19-4 and conceded 72.4 points a game, the best defence of the four preliminary finalists. Sydney finished 18-5 and scored 110.6 a game, the best attack. That is the match-up in one line: the best scoring side against the best defensive side, at the ground Sydney have played on all season.
| Sydney vs Fremantle | Number |
|---|---|
| Meetings since 2023 | 7 |
| Series record | Sydney 4, Fremantle 3 |
| At the SCG | Fremantle 2, Sydney 1 |
| Average margin | 21.0 points |
| Average total | 169.6 points |
| Decided by 12 or fewer | 3 of 7 |
| Most recent | Fremantle 111-73, round 18, Perth Stadium |
| Sydney 2026 home and away | 18-5, 110.6 for, 81.3 against |
| Fremantle 2026 home and away | 19-4, 99.4 for, 72.4 against |
The betting angle
The line is the more interesting market than the head to head, and the 3-from-7 inside 12 points is the number to hold onto. The total is the other one: 169.6 across the series is healthy, but Fremantle have conceded under 73 a game all year and finals football tends to drag totals down, so the under has a structural argument the history does not immediately show. Anyone backing Fremantle is backing the defence to travel, which is exactly what failed them against Hawthorn a fortnight ago. Outright markets for both sides are tracked on our AFL premiership odds page, and the Norm Smith Medal market usually shortens hard for whoever controls a preliminary final.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane
Result: Brisbane 20.11 (131) def. Hawthorn 19.8 (122). Saturday 19 September, MCG, in front of 97,835. Twelve goals were kicked between the sides in the final term. Hugh McCluggage goaled after a holding-the-ball call with 36 seconds left and Kai Lohmann’s fifth after the siren sealed a fourth straight Grand Final for Brisbane. The read below was written before the bounce.
The head-to-head
Five meetings since 2023 have produced an average margin of 32 points and only one game inside 12. Nobody has kept this fixture close for four quarters. The venue split is the cleanest read available: Hawthorn have won both games played in Melbourne, Brisbane have won both at the Gabba. Every meeting and the trends are on our Hawthorn vs Brisbane head-to-head page.
Form and the numbers
The most recent instalment was the most lopsided of the lot: Brisbane 125, Hawthorn 58 at the Gabba in round 22, a 67-point win that stands as the largest margin in the sample by 25 points. Against that, Hawthorn beat Brisbane by 25 at the MCG in 2023 and by 25 again at Docklands in 2024, and this one is at the MCG, where they held Fremantle to 40 points a fortnight ago.
Brisbane are the better-scoring side and Hawthorn the better-defending one, though neither margin is large. Brisbane averaged 108.7 points across the home-and-away rounds to Hawthorn’s 98.3, while Hawthorn conceded 81.8 to Brisbane’s 89.3. Brisbane arrive on the back of 144 against Adelaide, their heaviest score of the season, and are into a fourth consecutive preliminary final.
| Hawthorn vs Brisbane | Number |
|---|---|
| Meetings since 2023 | 5 |
| Series record | Brisbane 3, Hawthorn 2 |
| In Melbourne | Hawthorn 2, Brisbane 0 |
| At the Gabba | Brisbane 2, Hawthorn 0 |
| Average margin | 32.0 points |
| Average total | 170.0 points |
| Decided by 12 or fewer | 1 of 5 |
| Most recent | Brisbane 125-58, round 22, Gabba |
| Hawthorn 2026 home and away | 15-8, 98.3 for, 81.8 against |
| Brisbane 2026 home and away | 16-7, 108.7 for, 89.3 against |
The betting angle
One close game in five makes the line more attractive than the head to head, and margin brackets carry real value if you have a view on which way it breaks. The venue split is the angle: 2-0 to Hawthorn in Melbourne, 2-0 to Brisbane in Brisbane, in a series averaging a 32-point margin. Backing Brisbane means backing them to break a pattern that has held for four years. With a 170.0 average total the over is the historical side, even allowing for finals tightening things up. Whoever wins goes into the Grand Final, and the bracket shows how the run home lines up.
Where to Bet on the AFL Finals
Finals lines move hard between the Tuesday team announcements and the first whistle, and the gap between books widens in September more than at any other point in the season. Compare the best betting sites in Australia, or see our newest betting sites in Australia.
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
#AD 18+ T&Cs Apply Imagine what you could be buying instead. For free & confidential support call 180 0858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
18+ T&C's Apply. What are you really gambling with? Chances are you're about to lose. Set a Deposit Limit For free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au
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More AFL Content
- AFL finals bracket: fixtures, results and how the draw falls
- Semi-final results: both games and how our tips went
- AFL Grand Final: start time in every state, how to watch and odds
- AFL premiership odds
- Norm Smith Medal tips and odds
- How do AFL finals work?
- AFL round-by-round predictions