AFL Preliminary Finals Preview & Predictions

Sydney host Fremantle at the SCG and Hawthorn host Brisbane at the MCG. Both preliminary finals previewed with full head-to-head records, form and our predictions.

Two preliminary finals, both sudden death, and the winners meet in the Grand Final at the MCG. Sydney and Hawthorn earned the home games by winning qualifying finals; Fremantle and Brisbane are here because they survived semi-finals. Catch up on the Finals Week 3 results first, then follow the bracket on our AFL finals bracket. Prices move quickly in September so we have left live markets to the bookmakers rather than quoting them here.

Sydney vs Fremantle

Prediction: Sydney to win by 1-12 points

Preliminary final, Friday 18 September at 7:40pm AEST at the SCG. Sudden death.

Sydney have not played since putting 141 on Brisbane in the qualifying final, a 53-point win that was the performance of the finals series so far. Fremantle come in off a 14-point win over Geelong in which Luke Jackson had 25 disposals, 35 hitouts and two goals, and in which they had to weather a genuine Geelong surge.

Here is the number that complicates the obvious read. These two have met three times at the SCG since 2023 and Fremantle have won two of them, including a one-point win in 2024. The most recent meeting of all was a 38-point Fremantle win in Perth in round 18 this year. Sydney lead the overall ledger 4-3, but the venue advantage that usually decides a preliminary final is not as strong here as the fixture suggests.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	7, across the last four seasons
Record	Sydney 4-3
Average score	Sydney 87.3, Fremantle 82.3
Biggest win	Sydney by 48, Fremantle by 38
Decided by a goal or less	2 of 7
At the SCG	3 meetings, Fremantle have won 2
Finals record	2 wins each, this is the fifth finals meeting

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 9	Sydney 86 v Fremantle 103	Fremantle by 17
2023 Round 19	Fremantle 76 v Sydney 105	Sydney by 29
2024 Round 9	Fremantle 39 v Sydney 87	Sydney by 48
2024 Round 16	Sydney 98 v Fremantle 99	Fremantle by 1
2025 Round 2	Fremantle 65 v Sydney 68	Sydney by 3
2025 Round 17	Sydney 94 v Fremantle 83	Sydney by 11
2026 Round 18	Fremantle 111 v Sydney 73	Fremantle by 38

 

Two of the seven were decided by a goal or less and two were blowouts, so the fixture does not have a settled shape. We will take Sydney on the week off and the 141 they put on Brisbane, but the SCG record is the reason not to take them heavily, and a Fremantle side that has now won a final away from home in each of the last two weeks is not the same team that lost a qualifying final.

Head-to-head: Sydney vs Fremantle prediction & H2H record →

Hawthorn vs Brisbane

Prediction: Brisbane to win by 1-12 points

Preliminary final, Saturday 19 September at 5:15pm AEST at the MCG. Sudden death.

Hawthorn beat the minor premiers in Perth to get here and have had the week off. Brisbane have just beaten Adelaide by 53 and are into a fourth consecutive preliminary final.

Brisbane lead the recent record 3-2 and, more to the point, have won the last two meetings, the most recent by 67 points in round 22 this year. Hawthorn’s two wins both came in Melbourne, which matters this week. Neither side has produced a close game against the other since 2023: none of the five was decided by a goal or less, and the average margin is 32 points.

Head-to-head at a glance

Head-to-head since 2023
Meetings	5, across the last four seasons
Record	Brisbane 3-2
Average score	Brisbane 91.0, Hawthorn 79.0
Biggest win	Brisbane by 67, Hawthorn by 25
Decided by a goal or less	0 of 5
In Melbourne	3 meetings, Hawthorn have won 2

 

Every meeting since 2023

Season	Result	Margin
2023 Round 13	Hawthorn 98 v Brisbane 73	Hawthorn by 25
2024 Round 11	Hawthorn 100 v Brisbane 75	Hawthorn by 25
2025 Round 11	Hawthorn 60 v Brisbane 93	Brisbane by 33
2025 Round 24	Brisbane 89 v Hawthorn 79	Brisbane by 10
2026 Round 22	Brisbane 125 v Hawthorn 58	Brisbane by 67

 

This is the hardest of the two to call. Brisbane are in better form and own the recent head-to-head, but both of Hawthorn’s wins came in Melbourne and this is at the MCG, and Hawthorn have already beaten the best team in the competition on its own ground this September. The fixture does not produce close games, so a margin is likely either way. We will take Brisbane narrowly, with the acknowledgement that the venue is the strongest argument against us.

Head-to-head: Hawthorn vs Brisbane prediction & H2H record →

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