AFL Grand Final Tips 2024 | Best Bets & Predictions

Adam Cusworth: Sep 22, 2024

AFL Grand Final tips, best bets, predictions and preview.

The 2024 AFL Grand Final between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions takes place on Saturday September 30 and our AFL tips expert will have you covered with Grand Final Tips, including Best Bet, Next Best, Multi Bet, First Goal Scorer and Norm Smith Medal winner predictions for the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

All of our Grand Final predictions can be found below.

AFL Grand Final Winner Odds

Sydney are favourites to claim the flag at $1.72 with Picklebet, while Brisbane are $2.09 outsiders. Brisbane have won the last three meetings between the teams.

Who Will Win the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

Sydney are favourites for the AFL Grand Final and here is why:

The Swans have been the top team all season and finished the home and away season in top spot on the ladder with 17 wins from their 23 home and away matches. John Longmire’s side come into this with fresh legs, having had the benefit of a week off in the lead up to their 36-point Preliminary Final win over Port Adelaide.

But we are keen on the Brisbane Lions in this year’s decider and here is why:

The Lions have won five of their past six against Sydney and they include the last three times the two sides have met. Chris Fagan’s side were two point winners over the Swans at the GABBA this season and have had the superior record since the mid-season bye, winning 13 of 15 matches, while Sydney have won six of their past 11.

While Sydney have the fresh legs, Brisbane are match-hardened and have the benefit of a match at the MCG last weekend, defeating Geelong by 10 points in a classic Preliminary Final

One interesting stat is the two sides respective records at the MCG. Both sides have played at the venue on three occasions in 2024, winning twice.

In the Round 19 clash between the two sides this season, the Brisbane Lions overcame a three-quarter time deficit to win by two points. Hugh McCluggage was instrumental in the win with three goals and 26 disposals.

AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi Tips

We’re going with an 8-leg Same Game Multi for the 2024 AFL Grand Final at odds of $4.90. We need a total of three goals from Brisbane players and two goals from Collingwood players as well as being quite conservative on the disposal front.

Same Game Multi Stats for the AFL Grand Final

Lachie Neale has averaged 27 disposals in his past four matches against Sydney
Dayne Zorko has averaged 24 disposals in his past three matches against Sydney
Hugh McCluggage has had 20+ disposals in nine of his past 10 matches
Isaac Heeney has had 20+ disposals in all but two matches this season
Darcy Wilmot has had 15+ disposals in 16 of his past 17 matches
Cam Rayner has kicked six goals in his past three matches against Sydney
Isaac Heeney has kicked six goals in his past three matches against the Lions
Joel Amartey has kicked eight goals in his past four matches

Same Game Multi Betting Prediction

AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Tips

Finding the first goalscorer in any match really is a lottery, but for those looking for an edge based on stats, the following might help.

First goalscorers last 3 games head-to-head

R19, 2024 – Joe Daniher, Joe Daniher, Chad Warner, Cam Rayner
R4, 2023 – Sam Wicks, Justin McInerney, Jarrod Berry, James Rowbottom
R7, 2022 – Errol Gulden, Dan McStay, Dayne Zorko, Dayne Zorko

First goalscorers last 3 games for Sydney

PF, 2024 – Jase Burgoyne (Port Adelaide), Jake Lloyd, Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald
QF, 2024 – Jesse Hogan (GWS Giants), Jesse Hogan (GWS Giants), James Rowbottom, Toby McMullin (GWS Giants)
R24, 2024 – James Rowbottom, Dane Rampe, Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide), Errol Gulden

First goalscorer last 3 games for Brisbane

PF, 2023 – Charlie Cameron, Jeremy Cameron (Geelong), Zac Bailey, Eric Hipwood.
SF, 2024 – Aaron Cadman (GWS Giants), Joe Daniher, Toby Greene (GWS Giants), Joel Peatling (GWS Giants)
QF 2024- Cam Rayner, Joe Daniher, Kai Lohmann, Joe Daniher

The players to feature in the first four goalscorers in more than one game are: Joe Daniher, Cam Rayner, Dayne Zorko, James Rowbottom, Errol Gulden

AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer Prediction:

Use a staking plan to cover four players

40% Joe Daniher @ $15
30% Cam Rayner @ $15
20% Errol Gulden @ $23
10% James Rowbottom @ $34

For example: $100 stake would be $40 on Jordan de Goey for $600 return, $30 on Cam Rayner $450 return, $20 on Jaspa Fletcher for $460 return and $10 Jack Crisp for $340 return.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Tips & Prediction

The Norm Smith Medal is generally awarded to a midfielder from the winning side, and considering we are tipping Brisbane to win the 2023 AFL Premiership, it’s their midfield we are leaning to. Three of the last four have been won by a midfielder that knows how to kick a goal with Dustin Martin (2020), Christian Petracca (2021) and Isaac Smith (2022) the three in question. Collingwood’s Bobby Hill was the Norm Smith Medallist last year.

With this in mind, Hugh McCluggage is the one I am most keen on. He has been consistent in recent times and is suited on the wide-open expanses of the MCG.

McCluggage was dominant the last time the two sides met with three goals and 26 disposals.

He has the skill, power and determination to help his team over the line, and he’s our top pick for the Norm Smith Medal.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Odds

View Picklebet entire Norm Smith Medal Winner market:

2024 AFL Grand Final Date

🇦🇺 Competition: AFL
🗓 Date: Saturday September 28
⏰ Time: 2:30pm (AEST)
🏟 Stadium: MCG

2024 AFL Grand Final Time

State	Grand Final Time
Victoria	2:30pm
Western Australia	12:30pm
NSW	2:30pm
South Australia	2pm
Queensland	2:30pm
Tasmania	2:30pm
ACT	2pm
Northern Territory	2pm

Where is the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final will be played at its traditional venue, the MCG. The Melbourne Cricket Ground has hosted the Grand Final since 1902, except for on seven occasions when it was unavailable, including in 2020 and 2021 due to covid regulations.

2024 AFL Grand Final Betting Options

H2H & Margin Betting

The most popular betting option for AFL matches is the H2H result and to expand on that, the margin betting for the winning team. H2H betting is picking which team is going to win on the day. Whereas, margin betting is on predicting on what margin the team is going to win the match by. There are two options for margin betting on multiple bookmakers. For example, you can bet on Richmond to win in between 1-39 points or 40+ points in Sportsbet’s ‘Big Win Little Win’ market. You can also pick a smaller margin of 1-24 or 25+. All H2H and Margin Betting options can be included in a Same Game Multi.

Line Betting

Line betting is a margin the bookmaker offers after making a ‘handicap’ for the a team in the match. For example, if a side has a line given by the bookmaker of +10 .5, and win the match by 11 or more points they have covered the line, any less and they have failed to cover the line. You can also choose to bet on the opposing team to lose by no more than 11 points (-10.5 line). If the outcome of your selection is correct, you will be paid out. This can also be included in a Same Game Multi.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Betting

The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the player who is the best performer on the ground in the AFL Grand Final. This is also one of the most popular betting options for the AFL Grand Final.

First Goalscorer & Goalscorer Betting

The first goalscorer is a market throughout the entirety of the home and away season, but is at the forefront of betting in the AFL Grand Final. There are also markets on multiple goals for individual players, including anytime goalscorer, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ goals. An unpopular betting option is an anytime goalscorer throughout a single quarter or half of the match. Closer to gameday, markets are released on who will kick the most goals of the match in a particular group, (Most Goals Gr1).

Disposal Betting

Disposal betting is very similar to goalscorer betting. These are the most common legs in a Same Game Multi. You can choose to bet on individual players accumulating a certain amount of disposals, including 10+ (only on bet365), 15+, 20+, 25+ 30+, 35+ and 40+. Similarly to the goalscorer group market, the disposal group market is who is going to gather the highest amount of disposals throughout the match in that group.

Note: There are more markets to place bets on in the AFL Grand Final, but these are the most popular betting options.

Top 5 VFL/AFL Grand Final Comebacks

1) Collingwood 101-111 Carlton | 1970 VFL Grand Final

The 1970 VFL Grand Final is arguably the greatest Grand Final of all time, it had everything from the stirring Carlton comeback to the iconic Alex Jesaulenko mark. Collingwood kept the Blues to four goals at the main break and surmounting a 44-point lead. Despite an eight goal third term, the Blues still trailed by 17-points. Carlton hit the front in the dying moments of the match to win the game by 10 points, with five of the six last quarter goals.

2) Collingwood 76-76 North Melbourne | 1977 VFL Grand Final

Although there was no outright winner in this match, the Kangaroos came from 27 points down at three quarter time to salvage a draw. The Kangaroos kicked five last quarter goals after being goalless since late in the first term. Ironically, North Melbourne went on to win the Grand Final replay by 27 points to win their second premiership.

3) Hawthorn 81-105 Essendon | 1984 VFL Grand Final

These two sides had created the fiercest of rivalries through the 1980’s because of the constant dominance the two teams had during that era. One of those meetings was the 1984 Grand Final, which saw the Bombers recover from the largest three-quarter time deficit in VFL/AFL Grand Final history. Essendon trailed by 20-25 points for much of the game, and the Hawks 23-point lead going into the final term wasn’t enough, as the Bombers piled on nine last quarter goals to win by 24 points.

4) Hawthorn 82-75 St Kilda | 1971 VFL Grand Final

After the heights of the 1970 Grand Final, no-one thought it could be backed up with a game as entertaining as that. The 1971 Grand Final between the Hawks and Saints came close and didn’t disappoint. The Saints ended up storming to a four-goal lead heading into the final quarter after a close first half. However, the Hawks kicked seven last quarter goals, with four from Bob Keddie to win by seven points.

5) West Coast 79-74 Collingwood | 2018 AFL Grand Final

The Eagles and Magpies were involved in one of the greatest modern AFL Grand Finals, which saw Dom Sheed kick a goal from the boundary with just under two minutes left. Collingwood kicked the first five goals of the game and led by as much as 29 points in the first quarter. West Coast was in front for a total of nine minutes of the match as they came away with their fourth premiership. Check out the last two minutes of the match below.

Biggest AFL Grand Final Wins

Geelong currently hold the record for the biggest grand final win, defeating the Power by 119 points in 2007. The first of three premierships in six years. More recently, the Tigers defeated the Giants by 89 points in 2019, in what wa sthe third largest grand final triumph.

Year	Team	Score	Team	Total
2007	Geelong	163-44	Port Adelaide	119 points
1988	Hawthorn	152-56	Melbourne	96 points
2019	Richmond	114-25	GWS	89 points
1983	Hawthorn	140-57	Essendon	83 points
1980	Richmond	159-78	Collingwood	81 points

Lowest AFL Grand Final Score

The majority of the lowest scoring grand finals were in and around the year 1900. However, the 1927 grand final between Collingwood and Richmond is the only grand final to be under 40 total points. Collingwood went on to win that match by 12 points and the three following premierships.

Year	Team	Score	Team	Total
1927	Collingwood	25-13	Richmond	38 points
1905	Fitzroy	30-17	Collingwood	47 points
1899	Fitzroy	27-26	South Melbourne	53 points
1901	Essendon	43-16	Collingwood	59 points
1903	Collingwood	31-29	Fitzroy	60 points

Which club has won the most AFL Premierships?

Essendon and Carlton have both won 16 premierships, the most of any club in the competition. Two of Essendon’s 16 premierships were in round-robin tournaments. Traditional rivals Collingwood sit just behind on 15 premierships. Hawthorn and Richmond’s dynasties in the previous decade have propelled them to 13 premierships a piece. Fremantle, GWS and Gold Coast are the only current teams to have not won a premiership. West Coast in the highest non-Victorian club in the standings with four.

Club	Premierships
Essendon	16
Carlton	16
Collingwood	16
Hawthorn	13
Richmond	13
Melbourne	13
Geelong	10
Fitzroy	8
North Melbourne	4
West Coast	4
South Melbourne	3
Brisbane	3
Sydney	2
Adelaide	2
Footscray/Western Bulldogs	2
St Kilda	1
Port Adelaide	1
Fremantle	0
GWS	0
Gold Coast	0
University	0

AFL Grand Final Winners since 2000

Ten teams have won at least one premiership in the 21st century, the most successful clubs have been Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane. Richmond have the most recent dynasty with three flags in the past four seasons. Hawthorn and Brisbane have both won three-peats since 2000. The team with the most successful season in AFL history was the Essendon Football Club in 2000, whilst we’ve also seen some of the best grand final’s. West Coast’s 29-point comeback against the Pies and the 2010 drawn grand final between Collingwood and St Kilda top the best premierships matches this century.

Year	Premiers
2023	Collingwood
2022	Geelong
2021	Melbourne
2020	Richmond
2019	Richmond
2018	West Coast
2017	Richmond
2016	Western Bulldogs
2015	Hawthorn
2014	Hawthorn
2013	Hawthorn
2012	Sydney
2011	Geelong
2010	Collingwood
2009	Geelong
2008	Hawthorn
2007	Geelong
2006	West Coast
2005	Sydney
2004	Port Adelaide
2003	Brisbane
2002	Brisbane
2001	Brisbane
2000	Essendon

Multiple Norm Smith Medalists

Dustin Martin has won the most Norm Smith medals with three since the medal was introduced in 1979. The only other players to win multiple Norm Smith medals are Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod & Luke Hodge with two.

Player	Club	Medals
Dustin Martin	Richmond	3
Gary Ayres	Hawthorn	2
Andrew McLeod	Adelaide	2
Luke Hodge	Hawthorn	2

Norm Smith Medal winners since 2000

Dustin Martin has won three of the previous four Norm Smith medals, which is also thee most since the medal was introduced. Brian Lake, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli were the winners of the medal during Hawthorn’s dynasty. Lenny Hayes and Scott Pendlebury both won the medal in 2010, which was one of the three drawn Grand Final’s in history. Whilst James Hird won the medal in 2000 in what was the best season a club has ever had.

Year	Player
2023	Ian Hill
2022	Isaac Smith
2021	Christian Petracca
2020	Dustin Martin
2019	Dustin Martin
2018	Luke Shuey
2017	Dustin Martin
2016	Jason Johannisen
2015	Cyril Rioli
2014	Luke Hodge
2013	Brian Lake
2012	Ryan O’Keefe
2011	Jimmy Bartel
2010 (replay)	Scott Pendlebury
2010	Lenny Hayes
2009	Paul Chapman
2008	Luke Hodge
2007	Steve Johnson
2006	Andrew Embley
2005	Chris Judd
2004	Byron Pickett
2003	Simon Black
2002	Nathan Buckley
2001	Shaun Hart
2000	James Hird

AFL Grand Final Tickets

*ticket link will be posted once tickets are available

AFL Grand Final FAQ’s

When is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final is going to be played on September 28th, 2023 at 2:30pm (AEST).

Where is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final will be held at the MCG.

What time is the AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final is going to be played at 2:30pm (AEST).

How to get AFL Grand Final tickets?

To purchase 2024 Grand Final tickets, you need to look at the ticketing information on the AFL website.

What teams are in the AFL Grand Final?

The 2024 Grand Final teams are Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions.

When is the AFL Grand Final public holiday?

In Victoria, the day before the AFL Grand Final is a public holiday. This year the Grand Final public holiday is on Friday, September 27th.

How to watch the 2024 AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final will be on Channel 7 and also on-demand service 7plus for free. If you are unable to watch on TV or 7plus you can still watch the game on Kayo or using the AFL Live Pass.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Victoria?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in New South Wales?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from New South Wales.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Queensland?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Queensland.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Tasmania?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Tasmania.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in South Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from South Australia.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Northern Territory?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from the Northern Territory.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in ACT?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from ACT.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Western Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 12:30pm if you are watching the game from Western Australia.

There are a plethora of betting sites available online, and it can be hard to know which one to choose. Our list of sports betting sites in Australia can help you narrow down your options and find the perfect bookie for your needs.

We have compiled a list of the most popular betting sites, as well as some lesser-known ones, so you can make an informed decision. Visit out bookmaker reviews page for more details. Whether you are looking for a bookmaker with great odds or one that offers a wide range of betting markets, we are sure you will find what you are looking for on our list. So, take a look and start placing your bets today!

If you’re looking to bet on AFL, our guide to the best sites for betting on AFL has got you covered. We’ve ranked the top bookmakers for betting on the AFL so you can get the best odds when you place your bets.

Ladbrokes is one of the leading online betting sites in Australia. You’re probably always on the lookout for more details to take advantage of the great promotions they run. Check out our extensive review where we provide information on ‘Ladbrokes Australia bonus codes‘ among other things!