AFL Grand Final Tips 2023 | Best Bets & Predictions

Adam Cusworth:
AFL Grand Final Tips

AFL Grand Final tips, best bets, predictions and preview.

The 2023 AFL Grand Final between the Collingwood Magpies and Brisbane Lions takes place on Saturday September 30 and our AFL tips expert will have you covered with Grand Final Tips, including Best Bet, Next Best, Multi Bet, First Goal Scorer and Norm Smith Medal winner predictions for the 2023 AFL Grand Final.

All of our Grand Final predictions can be found below.

AFL Grand Final Winner Odds

Collingwood are favourites to claim the flag at $1.72 with Picklebet, while Brisbane are $2.09 outsiders. Brisbane have won the last six meetings between the teams.

Who Will Win the 2023 AFL Grand Final?

Collingwood looks the likely winner of the AFL Grand Final in 2023, and here’s why:

Although Brisbane have won the past six matches between the two sides, none of those were at the MCG and the Lions have won just one of their past 16 at the home of footy. .

Average disposals is a stat where the Magpies have the advantage over the Lions. Collingwood get their hands on the footy on more occasions per game, averaging 365 disposals to 342.

If we look at the head-to-head stats for this season, Geelong come out on top in: handballs, tackles, uncontested possessions, disposal efficiency, rebound 50s, metres gained, intercepts and conversion.

Brisbane take honours in: kicks, marks, goals, hitouts, inside 50s, contested possessions and clearances, while they also attract slightly more free kicks from the umpires.

One interesting stat is the two sides respective records at the MCG.

Brisbane have won just one of their past 16 at the venue. That win came in last year’s finals series over Melbourne. In 2023, they have lost both of their games at the venue, a 25-point loss to Hawthorn and a one-point loss to Melbourne.

This season, Collingwood have played 16 matches at the MCG and recorded 13 wins. They have won both of their finals at the venue. Brisbane’s finals have been held at the GABBA

The Lions have won their past six matches against Collingwood. Those games were held at the GABBA or at Marvel Stadium.

Brisbane won the two games between the two sides this year.

In Round 4 it was Brisbane 18.8.116 to Collingwood 11.17.83. That match was held at the GABBA and a second quarter lapse, as well as some inaccuracy, proved to be costly to the Magpies. .

The return match came as recently as a month ago in Round 23 at Marvel Stadium. Collingwood were without a number of their big names and went down by 24 points, 15.10.100 to 19.10.124.

AFL Grand Final Same Game Multi Tips

We’re going with a 11-leg Same Game Multi for the 2023 AFL Grand Final at odds of $4.90. We need a total of three goals from Brisbane players and two goals from Collingwood players as well as being quite conservative on the disposal front.

Same Game Multi Stats for the AFL Grand Final

  • Darcy Wilmot has had 15+ disposals in his past 14 matches.
  • Scott Pendlebury has averaged 28 disposals in his past three games against the Lions.
  • Jack Crisp has averaged 26 disposals in his past four matches against Brisbane
  • Tom Mitchell is averaging 26 disposals in his past six matches
  • Lachie Neale has averaged 29 disposals in his past four matches against Collingwood.
  • Nick Daicos averaged 31 disposals per game this season.
  • Joe Daniher has booted 12 goals in his past four matches against the Magpies.
  • Charlie Cameron has kicked 17 goals in his past four matches against Collingwood.
  • Brody Mihocek is averaging two goals per game this season.
  • Jordan de Goey has kicked six goals in his past three games against Brisbane.
  • Cam Rayner has booted seven goals in his past three matches against Collingwood.

Same Game Multi Betting Prediction

AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Tips

Finding the first goalscorer in any match really is a lottery, but for those looking for an edge based on stats, the following might help.

First goalscorers last 3 games head-to-head

  • R23, 2023 – Callum Ah Chee, Joe Daniher, John Noble, Josh Daicos
  • R4, 2023 – Taylor Adams, Ash Johnson, Cam Rayner, Cam Rayner
  • R5, 2022 – Jarryd Lyons, Nathan Krueger, Jordan de Goey, Lachie Neale

First goalscorers last 3 games for Collingwood

  • PF, 2023 – Daniel McStay, Jack Crisp, Toby Greene (GWS), Tom Green (GWS)
  • QF, 2023 – Ian Hill, Ian Hill, Bailey Fritsch (Melbourne), Jack Crisp
  • R24, 2023 – Jordan de Goey, Jack Ginnivan, Brody Mihocek, Brody Mihocek

First goalscorer last 3 games for Brisbane

  • PF, 2023 – Matt Cottrell (Carlton), Harry McKay (Carlton), Jack Martin (Carlton), Sam Docherty (Carlton).
  • QF, 2023 – Jaspa Fletcher, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Ollie Lord (Port Adelaide)
  • R24, 2023 – Jade Gresham (St Kilda), Jaspa Fletcher, Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda), Dayne Zorko

The only players to feature in the first four goalscorers in more than one game are: Cam Rayner, Jordan de Goey, Jack Crisp and Jaspa Fletcher.

No player has been a first goalscorer on multiple occasions in the last three matches or head-to-heads

AFL Grand Final First Goalscorer Prediction:

Use a staking plan to cover four players

  • 40% Jordan de Goey @ $15
  • 30% Cam Rayner @ $15
  • 20% Jaspa Fletcher  @ $23
  • 10% Jack Crisp @ $34

For example: $100 stake would be $40 on Jordan de Goey for $600 return, $30 on Cam Rayner $450 return, $20 on Jaspa Fletcher for $460 return and $10 Jack Crisp for $340 return.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Tips & Prediction

The Norm Smith Medal is generally awarded to a midfielder from the winning side, and considering we are tipping Collingwood to win the 2023 AFL Premiership, it’s their midfield we are leaning to. The last three have also been won by a midfielder that knows how to kick a goal with Dustin Martin (2020), Christian Petracca (2021) and Isaac Smith (2022) the three in question.

With this in mind, Jordan de Goey is the one I am most keen on. He was instrumental in the win over GWS last weekend, picking up 34 disposals, despite being stuck on the bench in the closing stages of the match.

De Goey is renowned as a big game player and has Grand Final experience, booting three electric goals in the Magpies narrow loss to West Coast in the 2018 decider.

He has the skill, power and determination to help his team over the line, and he’s our top pick for the Norm Smith Medal.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Odds

View Picklebet entire Norm Smith Medal Winner market:

Odds correct as of 11:00am September 26, 2023

2023 AFL Grand Final Date

🇦🇺 Competition: AFL
🗓 Date: Saturday September 30
⏰ Time: 2:30pm (AEST)
🏟 Stadium: MCG

2023 AFL Grand Final Time

State Grand Final Time
Victoria 2:30pm
Western Australia 12:30pm
NSW 2:30pm
South Australia 2pm
Queensland 2:30pm
Tasmania 2:30pm
ACT 2pm
Northern Territory 2pm

Where is the 2023 AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final will be played at its traditional venue, the MCG. The Melbourne Cricket Ground has hosted the Grand Final since 1902, except for on seven occasions when it was unavailable, including in 2020 and 2021 due to covid regulations.

2023 AFL Grand Final Betting Options

H2H & Margin Betting

The most popular betting option for AFL matches is the H2H result and to expand on that, the margin betting for the winning team. H2H betting is picking which team is going to win on the day. Whereas, margin betting is on predicting on what margin the team is going to win the match by. There are two options for margin betting on multiple bookmakers. For example, you can bet on Richmond to win in between 1-39 points or 40+ points in Sportsbet’s ‘Big Win Little Win’ market. You can also pick a smaller margin of 1-24 or 25+. All H2H and Margin Betting options can be included in a Same Game Multi.

Line Betting

Line betting is a margin the bookmaker offers after making a ‘handicap’ for the a team in the match. For example, if a side has a line given by the bookmaker of +10 .5, and win the match by 11 or more points they have covered the line, any less and they have failed to cover the line. You can also choose to bet on the opposing team to lose by no more than 11 points (-10.5 line). If the outcome of your selection is correct, you will be paid out. This can also be included in a Same Game Multi.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Betting

The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the player who is the best performer on the ground in the AFL Grand Final. This is also one of the most popular betting options for the AFL Grand Final.

First Goalscorer & Goalscorer Betting

The first goalscorer is a market throughout the entirety of the home and away season, but is at the forefront of betting in the AFL Grand Final. There are also markets on multiple goals for individual players, including anytime goalscorer, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ goals. An unpopular betting option is an anytime goalscorer throughout a single quarter or half of the match. Closer to gameday, markets are released on who will kick the most goals of the match in a particular group, (Most Goals Gr1).

Disposal Betting

Disposal betting is very similar to goalscorer betting. These are the most common legs in a Same Game Multi. You can choose to bet on individual players accumulating a certain amount of disposals, including 10+ (only on bet365), 15+, 20+, 25+ 30+, 35+ and 40+. Similarly to the goalscorer group market, the disposal group market is who is going to gather the highest amount of disposals throughout the match in that group.

Note: There are more markets to place bets on in the AFL Grand Final, but these are the most popular betting options.

Top 5 VFL/AFL Grand Final Comebacks

1) Collingwood 101-111 Carlton | 1970 VFL Grand Final

The 1970 VFL Grand Final is arguably the greatest Grand Final of all time, it had everything from the stirring Carlton comeback to the iconic Alex Jesaulenko mark. Collingwood kept the Blues to four goals at the main break and surmounting a 44-point lead. Despite an eight goal third term, the Blues still trailed by 17-points. Carlton hit the front in the dying moments of the match to win the game by 10 points, with five of the six last quarter goals.

2) Collingwood 76-76 North Melbourne | 1977 VFL Grand Final

Although there was no outright winner in this match, the Kangaroos came from 27 points down at three quarter time to salvage a draw. The Kangaroos kicked five last quarter goals after being goalless since late in the first term. Ironically, North Melbourne went on to win the Grand Final replay by 27 points to win their second premiership.

3) Hawthorn 81-105 Essendon | 1984 VFL Grand Final

These two sides had created the fiercest of rivalries through the 1980’s because of the constant dominance the two teams had during that era. One of those meetings was the 1984 Grand Final, which saw the Bombers recover from the largest three-quarter time deficit in VFL/AFL Grand Final history. Essendon trailed by 20-25 points for much of the game, and the Hawks 23-point lead going into the final term wasn’t enough, as the Bombers piled on nine last quarter goals to win by 24 points.

4) Hawthorn 82-75 St Kilda | 1971 VFL Grand Final

After the heights of the 1970 Grand Final, no-one thought it could be backed up with a game as entertaining as that. The 1971 Grand Final between the Hawks and Saints came close and didn’t disappoint. The Saints ended up storming to a four-goal lead heading into the final quarter after a close first half. However, the Hawks kicked seven last quarter goals, with four from Bob Keddie to win by seven points.

5) West Coast 79-74 Collingwood | 2018 AFL Grand Final

The Eagles and Magpies were involved in one of the greatest modern AFL Grand Finals, which saw Dom Sheed kick a goal from the boundary with just under two minutes left. Collingwood kicked the first five goals of the game and led by as much as 29 points in the first quarter. West Coast was in front for a total of nine minutes of the match as they came away with their fourth premiership. Check out the last two minutes of the match below.

Biggest AFL Grand Final Wins

Geelong currently hold the record for the biggest grand final win, defeating the Power by 119 points in 2007. The first of three premierships in six years. More recently, the Tigers defeated the Giants by 89 points in 2019, in what wa sthe third largest grand final triumph.

Year Team Score Team Total
2007 Geelong 163-44 Port Adelaide 119 points
1988 Hawthorn 152-56 Melbourne 96 points
2019 Richmond 114-25 GWS 89 points
1983 Hawthorn 140-57 Essendon 83 points
1980 Richmond 159-78 Collingwood 81 points

Lowest AFL Grand Final Score

The majority of the lowest scoring grand finals were in and around the year 1900. However, the 1927 grand final between Collingwood and Richmond is the only grand final to be under 40 total points. Collingwood went on to win that match by 12 points and the three following premierships.

Year Team Score Team Total
1927 Collingwood 25-13 Richmond 38 points
1905 Fitzroy 30-17 Collingwood 47 points
1899 Fitzroy 27-26 South Melbourne 53 points
1901 Essendon 43-16 Collingwood 59 points
1903 Collingwood 31-29 Fitzroy 60 points

Which club has won the most AFL Premierships?

Essendon and Carlton have both won 16 premierships, the most of any club in the competition. Two of Essendon’s 16 premierships were in round-robin tournaments. Traditional rivals Collingwood sit just behind on 15 premierships. Hawthorn and Richmond’s dynasties in the previous decade have propelled them to 13 premierships a piece. Fremantle, GWS and Gold Coast are the only current teams to have not won a premiership. West Coast in the highest non-Victorian club in the standings with four.

Club Premierships
Essendon 16
Carlton 16
Collingwood 15
Hawthorn 13
Richmond 13
Melbourne 13
Geelong 10
Fitzroy 8
North Melbourne 4
West Coast 4
South Melbourne 3
Brisbane 3
Sydney 2
Adelaide 2
Footscray/Western Bulldogs 2
St Kilda 1
Port Adelaide 1
Fremantle 0
GWS 0
Gold Coast 0
University 0

AFL Grand Final Winners since 2000

Ten teams have won at least one premiership in the 21st century, the most successful clubs have been Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane. Richmond have the most recent dynasty with three flags in the past four seasons. Hawthorn and Brisbane have both won three-peats since 2000. The team with the most successful season in AFL history was the Essendon Football Club in 2000, whilst we’ve also seen some of the best grand final’s. West Coast’s 29-point comeback against the Pies and the 2010 drawn grand final between Collingwood and St Kilda top the best premierships matches this century.

Year Premiers
2022 Geelong
2021 Melbourne
2020 Richmond
2019 Richmond
2018 West Coast
2017 Richmond
2016 Western Bulldogs
2015 Hawthorn
2014 Hawthorn
2013 Hawthorn
2012 Sydney
2011 Geelong
2010 Collingwood
2009 Geelong
2008 Hawthorn
2007 Geelong
2006 West Coast
2005 Sydney
2004 Port Adelaide
2003 Brisbane
2002 Brisbane
2001 Brisbane
2000 Essendon

Multiple Norm Smith Medalists

Dustin Martin has won the most Norm Smith medals with three since the medal was introduced in 1979. The only other players to win multiple Norm Smith medals are Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod & Luke Hodge with two.
Player Club Medals
Dustin Martin Richmond 3
Gary Ayres Hawthorn 2
Andrew McLeod Adelaide 2
Luke Hodge Hawthorn 2

Norm Smith Medal winners since 2000

Dustin Martin has won three of the previous four Norm Smith medals, which is also thee most since the medal was introduced. Brian Lake, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli were the winners of the medal during Hawthorn’s dynasty. Lenny Hayes and Scott Pendlebury both won the medal in 2010, which was one of the three drawn Grand Final’s in history. Whilst James Hird won the medal in 2000 in what was the best season a club has ever had.
Year Player
2022 Isaac Smith
2021 Christian Petracca
2020 Dustin Martin
2019 Dustin Martin
2018 Luke Shuey
2017 Dustin Martin
2016 Jason Johannisen
2015 Cyril Rioli
2014 Luke Hodge
2013 Brian Lake
2012 Ryan O’Keefe
2011 Jimmy Bartel
2010 (replay) Scott Pendlebury
2010 Lenny Hayes
2009 Paul Chapman
2008 Luke Hodge
2007 Steve Johnson
2006 Andrew Embley
2005 Chris Judd
2004 Byron Pickett
2003 Simon Black
2002 Nathan Buckley
2001 Shaun Hart
2000 James Hird

AFL Grand Final Tickets

*ticket link will be posted once tickets are available

AFL Grand Final FAQ’s

When is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final is going to be played on September 30th, 2023 at 2:30pm (AEST).

Where is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final will be held at the MCG.

What time is the AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final is going to be played at 2:30pm (AEST).

How to get AFL Grand Final tickets?

To purchase 2023 Grand Final tickets, you need to look at the ticketing information on the AFL website.

What teams are in the AFL Grand Final?

The 2023 Grand Final teams are Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions.

When is the AFL Grand Final public holiday?

In Victoria, the day before the AFL Grand Final is a public holiday. This year the Grand Final public holiday is on Friday, September 29th.

How to watch the 2023 AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final will be on Channel 7 and also on-demand service 7plus for free. If you are unable to watch on TV or 7plus you can still watch the game on Kayo or using the AFL Live Pass.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Victoria?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in New South Wales?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from New South Wales.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Queensland?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Queensland.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Tasmania?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2:30pm if you are watching the game from Tasmania.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in South Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from South Australia.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Northern Territory?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from the Northern Territory.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in ACT?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 2pm if you are watching the game from ACT.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Western Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 12:30pm if you are watching the game from Western Australia.

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