AFL Grand Final Tips 2022 | Best Bets & Predictions

Marcus Bazzano:
AFL Grand Final Tips

AFL Grand Final tips, best bets, predictions and preview.

AFL Grand Final Tips 2022

The 2022 AFL Grand Final will take place in September and our AFL tips expert will have you covered with Grand Final Tips, including Best Bet, Next Best, Multi Bet, First Goal Scorer and Norm Smith Medal winner predictions for the 2022 AFL Grand Final.

Below is last season’s Grand Final tips and preview between the Melbourne Demons and Western Bulldogs.

AFL Grand Final Winner Odds

Melbourne are the favourites for the 2021 Premiership at $1.64, after winning their first minor premiership since 1964. Meanwhile, the Dogs sit as the underdog, paying at $2.26 after cruising past the Power in last weeks preliminary final.

See below for the full 2021 AFL Premiership odds.

Head-to-Head Prediction

Both Melbourne and the Bulldogs come into the Grand Final at their peak with both teams having 10 individual goal scorers in their preliminary final wins.

Melbourne kicked 19.11 and the Dogs kicked 17.14 while both teams held their opposition to just six goals. They last met in Round 19 where each team had 20 scoring shots but it was the Dogs who prevailed kicking 13.7 to the Demons less accurate 9.11.

It was a different story in Round 11 with Melbourne defeating the Dogs by 28 points as Bayley Fritsch and Tom McDonald starred with three goals apiece.

Max Gawn went forward and tore apart Geelong kicking five of the best in the prelim, and another starring role could see the skipper carry his side to victory on Saturday.

AFL Grand Final Multi Bet Tips

  • Angus Brayshaw has had 15+ disposals in 11 of his last 14 matches
  • Taylor Duryea has had 15+ disposals in 20 of his 24 games this season, including both games against the Dees
  • Christian Salem has had 20+ disposals in 19 of his 23 games this season, including 29 last week against the Cats at the same ground
  • Bailey Dale has had 20+ disposals in 11 of his last 12 matches
  • Christian Petracca has had 25+ disposals in 12 of his last 13 matches
  • Marcus Bontempelli has had 25+ disposals in 19 games this season, including twice against the Demon
  • Jack Macrae has had 30+ disposals in 23 of his 25 games this season, including two 35+ disposal games against the Demons
  • Kysaiah Pickett has kicked at least one goal in all but three matches this season
  • Bayley Fritsch has kicked 2+ goals in seven of his last 10 matches, he’s also kicked at least 2 goals in both matches against the Dogs this season

AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorer Tips

Bayleey Fritsch, Ben Brown and Aaron Naughton are the bookies favourites for kicking the first goal of the grand final, and I tend to agree with them.

I believe out of the three, Ben Brown could be the likely candidate. Although for an outside chance, I’d back Mitch Hannan paying at $20.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Tips

Max Gawn was arguably best on ground in his sides dominant triumph against the Cats last week with five goals, and I believe he could have a similar effect against the Bulldogs ruck stocks and win the Norm Smith medal.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Odds

Star Melbourne duo Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are the favourites for the Norm Smith medal at $6 and $7. Whilst Brownlow contender Marcus Bontempelli is the favourite for the Dogs at $8.

2021 AFL Grand Final Date

🇦🇺 Competition: AFL
🗓 Date: Saturday September 25
Time: 5:15pm (AWST – local time)
🏟 Stadium: Optus Stadium

2021 AFL Grand Final Time

State Grand Final Time
Victoria 7:15pm
Western Australia 5:15pm
NSW 7:15pm
South Australia 6:45pm
Queensland 7:15pm
Tasmania 7:15pm
ACT 6:45pm
Northern Territory 6:45pm

Where is the 2021 AFL Grand Final?

AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan revealed on the 31st of August, that the 2021 AFL Grand Final will be officially hosted by Optus Stadium in light of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Melbourne. This will be the second consecutive season that the Grand Final won’t be held at the MCG.

2021 AFL Grand Final Betting Options

H2H & Margin Betting

The most popular betting option for AFL matches is the H2H result and to expand on that, the margin betting for the winning team. H2H betting is picking which team is going to win on the day. Whereas, margin betting is on predicting on what margin the team is going to win the match by. There are two options for margin betting on multiple bookmakers. For example, you can bet on Richmond to win in between 1-39 points or 40+ points in Sportsbet’s ‘Big Win Little Win’ market. You can also pick a smaller margin of 1-24 or 25+. All H2H and Margin Betting options can be included in a Same Game Multi.

Line Betting

Line betting is a margin the bookmaker offers after making a ‘handicap’ for the a team in the match. For example, if a side has a line given by the bookmaker of +10 .5, and win the match by 11 or more points they have covered the line, any less and theey have failed to cover the line. You can also choose to bet on the opposing team to lose by no more than 11 points (-10.5 line). If the outcome of your selection is correct, you will be paid out. This can also be included in a Same Game Multi.

Norm Smith Medal Winner Betting

The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the player who is the best performer on the ground in the AFL Grand Final. This is also one of the most popular betting options for the AFL Grand Final.

First Goalscorer & Goalscorer Betting

The first goalscorer is a market throughout the entirety of the home and away season, but is at the forefront of betting in the AFL Grand Final. There are also markets on multiple goals for individual players, including anytime goalscorer, 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+, 6+ goals. An unpopular betting option is an anytime goalscorer throughout a single quarter or half of the match. Closer to gameday, markets are released on who will kick the most goals of the match in a particular group, (Most Goals Gr1).

Disposal Betting

Disposal betting is very similar to goalscorer betting. These are the most common legs in a Same Game Multi. You can choose to bet on individual players accumulating a certain amount of disposals, including 15+, 20+, 25+ 30+, 35+ and 40+. Similarly to the goalscorer group market, the disposal group market is who is going to gather the highest amount of disposals throughout the match in that group.

Note: There are more markets to place bets on in the AFL Grand Final, but these are the most popular betting options.

Top 5 VFL/AFL Grand Final Comebacks

1) Collingwood 101-111 Carlton | 1970 VFL Grand Final

The 1970 VFL Grand Final is arguably the greatest Grand Final of all time, it had everything from the stirring Carlton comeback to the iconic Alex Jesaulenko mark. Collingwood kept the Blues to four goals at the main break and surmounting a 44-point lead. Despite an eight goal third term, the Blues still trailed by 17-points. Carlton hit the front in the dying moments of the match to win the game by 10 points, with five of the six last quarter goals.

2) Collingwood 76-76 North Melbourne | 1977 VFL Grand Final

Although there was no outright winner in this match, the Kangaroos came from 27 points down at three quarter time to salvage a draw. The Kangaroos kicked five last quarter goals after being goalless since late in the first term. Ironically, North Melbourne went on to win the Grand Final replay by 27 points to win their second premiership.

3) Hawthorn 81-105 Essendon | 1984 VFL Grand Final

These two sides had created the fiercest of rivalries through the 1980’s because of the constant dominance the two teams had during that era. One of those meetings was the 1984 Grand Final, which saw the Bombers recover from the largest three-quarter time deficit in VFL/AFL Grand Final history. Essendon trailed by 20-25 points for much of the game, and the Hawks 23-point lead going into the final term wasn’t enough, as the Bombers piled on nine last quarter goals to win by 24 points.

4) Hawthorn 82-75 St Kilda | 1971 VFL Grand Final

After the heights of the 1970 Grand Final, no-one thought it could be backed up with a game as entertaining as that. The 1971 Grand Final between the Hawks and Saints came close and didn’t disappoint. The Saints ended up storming to a four-goal lead heading into the final quarter after a close first half. However, the Hawks kicked seven last quarter goals, with four from Bob Keddie to win by seven points.

5) West Coast 79-74 Collingwood | 2018 AFL Grand Final

The Eagles and Magpies were involved in one of the greatest modern AFL Grand Finals, which saw Dom Sheed kick a goal from the boundary with just under two minutes left. Collingwood kicked the first five goals of the game and led by as much as 29 points in the first quarter. West Coast was in front for a total of nine minutes of the match as they came away with their fourth premiership. Check out the last two minutes of the match below.

Biggest AFL Grand Final Wins

Geelong currently hold the record for the biggest grand final win, defeating the Power by 119 points in 2007. The first of three premierships in six years. More recently, the Tigers defeated the Giants by 89 points in 2019, in what wa sthe third largest grand final triumph.

Year Team Score Team Total
2007 Geelong 163-44 Port Adelaide 119 points
1988 Hawthorn 152-56 Melbourne 96 points
2019 Richmond 114-25 GWS 89 points
1983 Hawthorn 140-57 Essendon 83 points
1980 Richmond 159-78 Collingwood 81 points

Lowest AFL Grand Final Score

The majority of the lowest scoring grand finals were in and around the year 1900. However, the 1927 grand final between Collingwood and Richmond is the only grand final to be under 40 total points. Collingwood went on to win that match by 12 points and the three following premierships.

Year Team Score Team Total
1927 Collingwood 25-13 Richmond 38 points
1905 Fitzroy 30-17 Collingwood 47 points
1899 Fitzroy 27-26 South Melbourne 53 points
1901 Essendon 43-16 Collingwood 59 points
1903 Collingwood 31-29 Fitzroy 60 points

Which club has won the most AFL Premierships?

Essendon and Carlton have both won 16 premierships, the most of any club in the competition. Two of Essendon’s 16 premierships were in round-robin tournaments. Traditional rivals Collingwood sit just behind on 15 premierships. Hawthorn and Richmond’s dynasties in the previous decade have propelled them to 13 premierships a piece. Fremantle, GWS and Gold Coast are the only current teams to have not won a premiership. West Coast in the highest non-Victorian club in the standings with four.

Club Premierships
Essendon 16
Carlton 16
Collingwood 15
Hawthorn 13
Richmond 13
Melbourne 12
Geelong 9
Fitzroy 8
North Melbourne 4
West Coast 4
South Melbourne 3
Brisbane 3
Sydney 2
Adelaide 2
Footscray/Western Bulldogs 2
St Kilda 1
Port Adelaide 1
Fremantle 0
Gold Coast 0
University 0

AFL Grand Final Winners since 2000

Ten teams have won at least one premiership in the 21st century, the most successful clubs have been Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong and Brisbane. Richmond have the most recent  dynasty with three flags in the past four seasons. Hawthorn and Brisbane have both won three-peats since 2000. The team with the most successful season in AFL history was the Essendon Football Club in 2000, whilst we’ve also seen some of the best grand final’s. West Coast’s 29-point comeback against the Pies and the 2010 drawn grand final between Collingwood and St Kilda top the best premierships matches this century.

Year Premiers
2020 Richmond
2019 Richmond
2018 West Coast
2017 Richmond
2016 Western Bulldogs
2015 Hawthorn
2014 Hawthorn
2013 Hawthorn
2012 Sydney
2011 Geelong
2010 Collingwood
2009 Geelong
2008 Hawthorn
2007 Geelong
2006 West Coast
2005 Sydney
2004 Port Adelaide
2003 Brisbane
2002 Brisbane
2001 Brisbane
2000 Essendon

Multiple Norm Smith Medalists

Dustin Martin has won the most Norm Smith medals with three since the medal was introduced in 1979. The only other players to win multiple Norm Smith medals are Gary Ayres, Andrew McLeod & Luke Hodge with two.
Player Club Medals
Dustin Martin Richmond 3
Gary Ayres Hawthorn 2
Andrew McLeod Adelaide 2
Luke Hodge Hawthorn 2

Norm Smith Medal winners since 2000

Dustin Martin has won three of the previous four Norm Smith medals, which is also thee most since the medal was introduced. Brian Lake, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli were the winners of the medal during Hawthorn’s dynasty. Lenny Hayes and Scott Pendlebury both won the medal in 2010, which was one of the three drawn Grand Final’s in history. Whilst James Hird won the medal in 2000 in what was the best season a club has ever had.
Year Player
2020 Dustin Martin
2019 Dustin Martin
2018 Luke Shuey
2017 Dustin Martin
2016 Jason Johannisen
2015 Cyril Rioli
2014 Luke Hodge
2013 Brian Lake
2012 Ryan O’Keefe
2011 Jimmy Bartel
2010 (replay) Scott Pendlebury
2010 Lenny Hayes
2009 Paul Chapman
2008 Luke Hodge
2007 Steve Johnson
2006 Andrew Embley
2005 Chris Judd
2004 Byron Pickett
2003 Simon Black
2002 Nathan Buckley
2001 Shaun Hart
2000 James Hird

AFL Grand Final Tickets

Ticketing information can be found on the AFL website | Click here to purchase tickets

AFL Grand Final FAQ’s

When is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final is going to be played on September 25th, 2021 at 5:15pm (AWST).

Where is the AFL Grand Final?

The Grand Final has been moved from the MCG for the second consecutive season due to COVID-19 issues in Victoria. This season, the premiership match will be played at Optus Stadium.

What time is the AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final is going to be played at 5:15pm local time and 7:15pm (AEST).

How to get AFL Grand Final tickets?

To purchase 2021 Grand Final tickets, you need to look at the ticketing information on the AFL website. Click here to purchase tickets.

What teams are in the AFL Grand Final?

The 2021 Grand Final will be played between the Melbourne Demons and the Western Bulldogs.

When is the AFL Grand Final public holiday?

In Victoria, the day before the AFL Grand Final is a public holiday. This year the Grand Final public holiday is on Friday, September 24th.

How to watch the 2021 AFL Grand Final?

The AFL Grand Final will be on Channel 7 and also on-demand service 7plus for free. If you are unable to watch on TV or 7plus you can still watch the game on Kayo or using the AFL Live Pass.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Victoria?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 7:15pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in New South Wales?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 7:15pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Queensland?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 7:15pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Tasmania?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 7:15pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in South Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 6:45pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Northern Territory?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 6:45pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in ACT?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 6:45pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.

What time is the AFL Grand Final in Western Australia?

The AFL Grand Final starts at 5:15pm if you are watching the game from Victoria.