AFL Round 16 Preview & Predictions

Round 16 lands with a Showdown, a top-eight opener and four sides on the bye. Catch up on last week first (Round 15 results): Fremantle made it 13 straight, Hawthorn climbed into the top four, Carlton banked a fifth win on the bounce and Adelaide edged Melbourne. This week, Geelong, Melbourne, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs all have the bye. Below are our predictions and the head-to-head reads for every Round 16 game.

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney

Brisbane Lions to win by 1-12 points

The Thursday-night opener is the closest call of the round. Sydney (2nd) are the form ladder side, but Brisbane have the Gabba and a point to prove after a patchy stretch.

The Lions are missing the likes of Hugh McCluggage and Dayne Zorko, which keeps this line-ball — the models split almost evenly. We’ll lean Brisbane at home in a tight one, but it’s a genuine 50-50.

Head-to-head: Brisbane Lions vs Sydney prediction & H2H record →

Hawthorn vs GWS

Hawthorn to win by 13-39 points

Hawthorn (3rd) roll into the MCG fresh off a top-four-sealing win and are unanimous tips against a GWS side that has drifted to mid-table.

The Giants are without a couple of key bodies and the gap in form is real, but Hawthorn carry a few outs of their own, so we’re taking the Hawks in the middle band rather than a blowout.

Head-to-head: Hawthorn vs GWS prediction & H2H record →

Carlton vs West Coast

Carlton to win by 40+ points

Carlton’s revival rolls on — five straight wins and a confident outfit hosting the league’s bottom side. West Coast sit 16th with the worst percentage in the competition.

The Eagles have been leaking heavily and this looms as the biggest mismatch on paper. We’re backing the Blues to win comfortably and lean to the 40-plus band.

Head-to-head: Carlton vs West Coast prediction & H2H record →

Collingwood vs Richmond

Collingwood to win by 40+ points

Collingwood at the MCG against 17th-placed Richmond is the projected blowout of the round. The Pies are top-eight calibre; the Tigers have the league’s weakest attack.

Richmond’s rebuild is a season-long project and this is a tough trip. We’re expecting Collingwood to win big — the 40-plus band is in play.

Head-to-head: Collingwood vs Richmond prediction & H2H record →

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide

Adelaide to win by 13-39 points

The Showdown. Adelaide (5th) are the form side of the two and are tipped by almost every model despite Port being nominal hosts at Adelaide Oval.

Port (15th) have been gutted by injury and sit well below the Crows on the ladder. Derby emotion can shrink margins, so we’ll take Adelaide in the middle band over a rout.

Head-to-head: Port Adelaide vs Adelaide prediction & H2H record →

North Melbourne vs Essendon

North Melbourne to win by 13-39 points

Two sides going in different directions: North have shown signs of life while Essendon prop up the ladder at 18th.

The Bombers may welcome a few players back, but the Roos are the clear pick at Marvel. We’ll take North in the middle band, with the closeness of the margin the only real question.

Head-to-head: North Melbourne vs Essendon prediction & H2H record →

Fremantle vs Gold Coast

Fremantle to win by 13-39 points

Ladder-leading Fremantle (13-1) close the round at fortress Optus Stadium, where they have been close to untouchable, against a Gold Coast side with the talent to trouble them.

The Suns are competitive and capable of a scare, but Freo’s form and home record make them strong favourites. We’re backing the Dockers in the middle band.

Head-to-head: Fremantle vs Gold Coast prediction & H2H record →

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FAQ

What are the best AFL tips for Round 16?
The most confident plays are Collingwood and Carlton at home against bottom sides, plus Fremantle continuing their run at Optus and Adelaide in the Showdown.

Which Round 16 match is closest to a 50-50?
Brisbane v Sydney on Thursday night — a top-eight opener the models split almost evenly, best treated as a line-betting game.

Which teams have the bye in AFL Round 16?
Geelong, Melbourne, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs.

More AFL Content

• AFL Tips & Hub — all AFL match tips and weekly previews
• AFL Round 15 Results — last week’s wrap and analysis
• AFL Round-by-Round Predictions — every round’s previews and results
• AFL Match Predictions — every team-vs-team head-to-head
• AFL Premiership Odds — flag market and futures
• AFL Ladder Predictor — model the run home

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