Norm Smith Medal Tips, Odds & Predictions

Betting Tips

Norm Smith Medal tips, odds and predictions: the best-on-ground award in the AFL Grand Final, how the market works and our picks for the winner.

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Norm Smith Medal 2026 | Odds, Tips & Predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is awarded to the best player in the AFL Grand Final. Named after legendary Melbourne coach Norm Smith, the medal is one of the most coveted individual awards in Australian football.

Shai Bolton of Fremantle won the 2026 Norm Smith Medal with 10 votes, the first medallist from a losing side since Chris Judd in 2005, as Brisbane beat Fremantle by seven for a third straight premiership. The full votes are below, and the match is reviewed in our Grand Final results.

Norm Smith Medal 2026 Odds

Bolton had 26 disposals, seven marks and five tackles and is only the fifth player to win the medal in a losing side. Will Ashcroft, going for a third in a row, finished equal second.

Player Club Votes
Shai Bolton Fremantle 10
Dayne Zorko Brisbane Lions 6
Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions 6
Caleb Serong Fremantle 4
Hayden Young Fremantle 3
Charlie Cameron Brisbane Lions 1

Historically, midfielders and key forwards who deliver match-winning performances on Grand Final day take home the medal, and players from the winning team are strongly favoured, though it has occasionally gone to a player from the losing side. Brisbane’s Will Ashcroft won in 2024 and 2025 and finished equal second in 2026. He is one of three players to win consecutive Norm Smith Medals, after Andrew McLeod in 1997 and 1998 and Dustin Martin in 2019 and 2020, and no player has ever won three in a row. It is also a useful reminder that the market tends to underrate a proven big-game midfielder.

Compare Norm Smith Medal odds across Picklebet, Dabble, Neds, Ladbrokes and bet365 once the 2027 Grand Final teams are set.

How the Norm Smith Medal Works

A panel of judges awards votes throughout the AFL Grand Final. The player judged to have been the best on ground receives the medal at the post-match presentation. The voting takes place in real time during the game, making it one of the most dramatic individual awards in Australian sport.

Norm Smith Medal Betting Markets

Winner: Bet on which player will win the Norm Smith Medal. Odds are released once Grand Final teams are confirmed.

Winning Team Player: Some bookmakers offer separate markets for the best player from each team, giving you an edge if you can predict the game’s standout performer.

Recent Norm Smith Medal Winners

Year Player Team
2026 Shai Bolton Fremantle
2025 Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions
2024 Will Ashcroft Brisbane Lions
2023 Bobby Hill Collingwood
2022 Isaac Smith Geelong
2021 Christian Petracca Melbourne
2020 Dustin Martin Richmond
2019 Marlion Pickett Richmond
2018 Luke Shuey West Coast
2017 Dustin Martin Richmond

 

For more AFL betting coverage, visit our AFL hub for tips, odds and predictions throughout the 2026 season.

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